新时代青年政治引领的价值、挑战和策略

青年是中华民族伟大复兴的生力军,是与新时代脉搏同步跳动的新力量.青年阶段是人生的"拔节孕穗期",最需要精心引领、引导和栽培.切实做好青年政治引领,对于为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦凝聚青春磅礴力量具有重要的时代意义和价值.新时代青年思想活跃、思维敏捷,主体意识和参与意识强,交流交往的国际化程度高,信息获取及时广泛,价值认同多元并存,关注点发散且迁移多变.传统的青年政治引领,面临形式枯燥、吸引力弱化、受外部环境影响和干扰较大等挑战,工作相对乏力.针对青年工作的现实需要,提出做好新时代青年政治引领的对策:一是夯实理论基础;二是营造成长环境;三是突出价值认同;四是创新方式方法;五是践行青春担当.     

Immigration effects on crime in a midwestern,nontraditional destination: a neighborhood-level analysis of Cincinnati,Ohio

Abstract

A wide-ranging body of research on the immigration-crime relationship has shown that immigration does not increase community crime levels. However, most prior studies have focused on traditional immigrant destinations or border cities. This study addresses several gaps in this line of research by exploring immigration effects on neighborhood levels of Violent and Property Index crimes for the 2008 to 2014 period in Cincinnati, Ohio – a Midwestern, mid-sized, nontraditional immigrant destination. Overall, our findings are consistent with previous research and indicate that controlling for other factors, the percent foreign-born has largely neutral effects on census tract-level crime rates in Cincinnati. Moreover, our findings show no signs of indirect effects of immigration on crime through neighborhood disadvantage.     

ECFA对海峡两岸区域金融合作的法律支撑分析

随着《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》(ECFA)的签署,其对海峡两岸区域金融合作的法律支撑效应尽显。从法律定位角度分析,ECFA不仅涵盖两岸货物贸易、服务贸易(含金融服务),还涉及投资内容,完全符合世界贸易组织(WTO)认可的"深度PTA"特征。从金融合作的实质内容来看,ECFA在金融方面的全面渗透,广泛合作的态势对金融监管提出了严峻的挑战,要求两岸在监管方面也必须配套广泛性和协同性。截止目前,ECFA框架尚未达成解决解决争端的救济模式,但考虑以政治性、法律程序性混合机制公允、灵活解决争端应成为题中应有之义。     

邻避风险认知偏差与沟通:社会判断理论的视角

社会判断理论认为邻避风险认知偏差源于周围环境的不确定性和个体理性与知识的有限性,不同利益相关者的风险认知参数不同——如权重、相关程度、函数关系、组合原则以及一致性等.分析这些参数,可以科学量化地表达认知偏差.利用棱镜模型对邻避风险认知的判断结果、判断原则和判断偏差等要素进行分析,从认知回馈角度出发,在主观合理的风险预期和客观公正的风险解释基础上进行平等互动的风险沟通,化解邻避风险认知偏差.     

Ending in Failure? The Performance of ‘Takeover’ Prime Ministers 1916–2016

When Theresa May became Prime Minister in July 2016, she joined a list of eleven previous UK takeover leaders in the past 100 years. While the popular image is of Prime Ministers arriving in power after a general election victory, more than half of the Prime Ministers who governed since 1916 have acceded as ‘takeover leaders’ through an internal party process. This article analyses how such takeover leaders perform, concluding that May is likely to face greater obstacles and enjoy fewer advantages than if she had been popularly elected. Takeover leaders have less time in power and less chance of winning subsequent elections, and are generally rated as worse‐performing.     

Family formation and everyday travel in Britain since c.1850

This paper focuses on the extent to which everyday travel behaviour in Britain changes in relation to family responsibilities, and examines how this has altered over the past century and a half. It is argued that prior to the mid-twentieth century changes in the family such as increased child-care responsibilities barely influenced the modes of transport used for everyday travel, but that increasingly in the later twentieth century people adjusted their travel behaviour during the family formation phases of the life cycle. In particular, parents of young children have become more car-dependent and less likely to walk or cycle. Data are drawn from two separate projects, one that collected travel life histories from the past half-century as context for research on cycling in later life, and one that uses personal diaries to reveal everyday mobility strategies of people in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It is argued that the observed changes are due not only to increased access to a wide range of different transport forms, especially the motor car, but also to changes in societal perceptions of risk and norms of travel behaviour. In conclusion, it is suggested that more awareness of past travel behaviours could aid the development and implementation of more sustainable transport policies in the UK.