Repeatability and reproducibility of comparison decisions by firearms examiners

In a comprehensive study to assess various aspects of the performance of qualified forensic firearms examiners, volunteer examiners compared both bullets and cartridge cases fired from three different types of firearms. They rendered opinions on each comparison according to the Association of Firearm & Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions, as Identification, Inconclusive (A, B, or C), Elimination, or Unsuitable. In this part of the study, comparison sets used previously to characterize the overall accuracy of examiners were blindly resubmitted to examiners to assess the repeatability (105 examiners; 5700 comparisons of bullets and cartridge cases) and reproducibility (191 examiners of bullets, 193 of cartridge cases; 5790 comparisons) of firearms examinations. Data gathered using the prevailing AFTE Range were also recategorized into two hypothetical scoring systems. Consistently positive differences between observed agreement and expected agreement indicate that the repeatability and reproducibility of examiners exceed chance agreement. When averaged over bullets and cartridge cases, the repeatability of comparison decisions (involving all five levels of the AFTE Range) was 78.3% for known matches and 64.5% for known nonmatches. Similarly averaged reproducibility was 67.3%% for known matches and 36.5% for known nonmatches. For both repeatability and reproducibility, many of the observed disagreements were between a definitive and inconclusive category. Examiner decisions are reliable and trustworthy in the sense that identifications are unlikely when examiners are comparing non-matching items, and eliminations are unlikely when they are comparing matching items.     

Parliamentary control of CSDP: the case of the EU's fight against piracy off the Somali coast

Parliamentary involvement remains a key tool for the democratic control of executive policies. This article explores the web of parliamentary involvement in decision-making on European Union (EU) military operations, using insights gained in an in-depth case study on the EU's anti-piracy mission Atalanta. We find that parliaments at all levels became involved only after key political decisions had already been made. At the member state level, we find highly uneven involvement with only some parliaments being very well informed and closely monitoring, if not influencing government policy. The European Parliament became active only after the launch of the mission but then scrutinised it intensely, profiting (in contrast to national parliaments) from its access to top military officials and key decision-makers. Finally, transnational parliamentary assemblies as well as more informal networks provided opportunities to transmit information across the boundaries of individual parliaments and party-groups thus potentially enhancing the ability of parliamentarians to scrutinise government policies.     

Social Norms Theory,Enforcement, and Management Concepts: An Analysis of Local Smoking Ban Ordinances

Although there is substantial research on the consequences of smoking and the economic loss resulting from tobacco use, there is a scarcity of work on the enforcement of smoking ordinances at the local level. As municipalities around the country pass ordinances restricting smoking in public places, research should be conducted to understand enforcement outcomes. This article examines the management concepts being employed by managers in the enforcement of smoking ordinances. This article shows that management concepts are salient in policy enforcement and are employed to manage smoking enforcement ordinances. The theory of social norms is used to explain this phenomenon.     

Book Reviews

Abstract

Underground movements in a struggle for political independence experience processes of crystallization as well as schism. Many times, severe struggles develop in these groups and focus on issues of leadership, operations, and ideology. The success of these movements in achieving their explicit goals depends on their ability to develop an effective mechanism(s) for inner conflict(s) resolution(s). Such inner conflicts and tensions can change, in the most profound way, the way an underground movement Junctions, its ability to attract and recruit new members, and its survivability. Lehi was one of the three prestate Jewish underground groups in Palestine (the two others were the Hagana and Etzel), struggling against the British and the Arabs with the explicit goal of establishing a new Jewish state. Lehi was established in the summer of 1940 and, in the autumn and winter of 1942, was already in an advanced stage of disintegration due to the British success in arresting or killing most of its members and leadership. In the summer of 1942, two leaders of Lehi—Itzhak Yazernitzky‐Shamir and Eliahu Giladi—escaped from the British detention camp in Mazra and revived Lehi. During 1942, a severe conflict developed between these two leaders, focusing on issues of leadership, operations, and ideology. Consequently, Shamir instructed his men to kill Giladi, who was assassinated in the summer of 1943. This paper traces the development of this conflict in a political and historical context and examines the consequences of the assassination. The main conclusion is that the death of Giladi had a major impact on the reemerging Lehi.     

Predicting verdicts,adherence to judge's instructions,and assumptions about the disposition of the defendant in a case involving the insanity defense

Abstract

296 college students and jury eligible adults completed attitudinal measures and read a case summary of a murder trial involving the insanity defense. The case summary included opening and closing arguments, testimony from expert witnesses, and judge's instructions. Although broader legal attitudes (the PJAQ) predicted verdicts, the Insanity Defense Attitudes-Revised scale provided incremental predictive validity. Attitudes related to the insanity defense also predicted adherence to judge's instructions, whereas more general legal biases predicted a juror's willingness to change their verdict after being provided with accurate information about the defendant's disposition following the verdict. Importantly, misconceptions concerning the insanity defense impacted verdicts and many jurors made decisions that failed to adhere to the judge's instructions, though the nullification tendency does appear to vary as a function of pretrial juror attitudes. Implications for instructing jurors in insanity defense cases will be discussed.     

Policy transfers between governments: The case of administrative reforms

Administrative reform has been a very common activity of governments in almost all industrialised democracies, including those in Western Europe. The frequent contacts among these governments, and the presence of organisations such as the OECD that are spreading the reforms, might be expected to produce widespread diffusion of administrative innovations. That diffusion is not, however, as widespread as might have been expected and there are marked differences among countries as well as among types of reform. Using Boolean algebra, this article analyses the correlates of the diffusion of reform among European countries and the implications of that diffusion for public administration in these countries.     

Rural income and poverty in a time of radical change in Malawi

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in Africa. There is widespread, though not universal, agreement about the shape of poverty in the country and the policy challenge this sets. Agriculture continues to be the most obvious means to stimulate broad-based rural growth and to provide levels of food security and income needed for the majority rural population. A longitudinal study over a decade during which radical policy and political changes occurred provides the data and basis for discussing the appropriate policy directions for reducing poverty.     

Supervisory experience and data points: implementation barriers,risk assessment and correctional professionals

Drawing on interviews with 24 correctional practitioners who use risk assessment instruments daily, we examine barriers to the use and implementation of these instruments. Findings reveal that practitioners have confidence in the state of risk assessment generally, but are skeptical about risk assessment on the job due to limited resources. They also point to barriers that inhibit their effectiveness including recognition of population heterogeneity, predictive misspecification due to data lags and overemphasis on stable predictors, and lacking guidance on appropriate use of vast available data. Instruments for measuring risk serve purposes beyond those intended by the social scientists who developed measures. We conclude with lessons for increasing the utility and legitimacy of risk assessments and with a call for incorporating latent uses of assessments into design.     

Barium and antimony distributions on the hands of nonshooters

Barium and antimony levels from selected areas of the left and right hands of 269 nonshooters provide a database for interpretation of gunshot residue swab analysis results. The database represents a variety of activities of individuals sampled by collectors throughout the United States. Nonshooting exposure to barium and antimony can generally be distinguished from firearms-associated exposure by considering the relative levels of the elements, location on the hands, and condition of the swabs. Consistent definition of sampling procedures and accurate analytical results make this database applicable for interpretation of data generated by most gunshot residue swab examiners.