The United States and Cuba: Future security issues

The purpose of this highly speculative article is to assess a broad range of possible developments in Cuba over the next five to seven years that could directly and adversely affect U.S. interests. By definition, therefore, it does not provide equal treatment to more optimistic and, salubrious scenarios. A key assumption is that the Cuban economy will not sustain a strong rebound to high levels of growth. Specific observations about how security challenges might impact certain U.S. government activities are also included according to the article’s terms of reference. No attempt is made to assign numerical or other probabilities to the counterfactual cases discussed. Finally, the future time frame examined includes treatments of a continuation of Fidel Castro's regime as well as the emergence of one or more successor governments. Brian Latell has been teaching courses on Cuba and Latin America at, Georgetown University for the past twenty-one years. He has written and lectured on Cuba, Mexico, and U.S. Foreign Intelligence Issues. In 1998 he co-editedEye in the Sky: The Story of the Corona Spy Satellites, published by the Smithsonian Press. He served as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America at the National Intelligence Council between 1990–1994. From 1994–1998 he was Director of the Center for the Study of Intelligence at CIA and chaired the Editorial Board ofStudies In Intelligence. Last year he retired from government service, and was awarded the Distinguished Intelligence Medal.     

Physical and chemical evidence remaining after the explosion of large improvised bombs. Part 1: firings of ammonium nitrate/sugar and urea nitrate

Recent criminal acts in the United Kingdom, United States and other countries have demonstrated the dangers to public safety from the criminal use of improvised explosives on a large scale. Four sets of trials were carried out over four years, partly in collaboration with the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation, involving the firing of large bombs, mostly fertilizer based. The principal objectives of the firings were to measure the physical effects of the explosions upon objects representative of those that would be found at a real bomb scene and to recover any chemical traces deposited on these objects. The results are intended for use as an aid in determining the approximate size and type of an explosive employed in a terrorist attack. This paper describes the background behind the trials, the procedures for preparation of witness materials and charges, and the collection and analysis of physical and chemical evidence.     

Optimal Government Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds

During recent years, more state and local governments have made provisions in their budgets for establishing and maintaining contingency reserve funds. A recent study by the National Conference of State Legislatures(NCSL) found that over half of all states now have such funds. The basic purpose of these contingency reserve funds, also referred to as "rainy day" funds, is to insulate governmental budgets from unexpected fiscal disruptions brought about by such factors as unanticipated revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns. What have received less attention, however, are the criteria which governments need to use in deciding whether to establish such contingency reserves in the first place, and if so, how large these reserves should optimally be. This article explores these two issues, using the State of California as an illustrative case study     

The detection and enhancement of latent fingermarks using infrared chemical imaging

The use of a new technique, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) chemical imaging, has been demonstrated for the enhancement of latent fingermarks on a number of surfaces. Images of untreated fingermarks on glass backgrounds with excellent ridge detail were acquired using infrared chemical imaging. High quality fingermarks on glass backgrounds were also developed using ethyl cyanoacrylate (super glue) fuming and subsequent infrared chemical imaging. This new method allows the collection of images from backgrounds that traditionally pose problems for current fingermark detection methods. The background may, for example, be highly colored, have a complex pattern, or possess other pattern or image characteristics that make it difficult to separate fingermark ridges using traditional optical or luminescent visualization. One background that has proven to be a challenging surface for the development of latent fingermarks is the Australian polymer banknote. To demonstrate the power and applicability of infrared chemical imaging, fingermarks fumed with ethyl cyanoacrylate were successfully imaged from Australian polymer banknotes.     

Acute selenium poisoning: suicide by ingestion

Selenium is a ubiquitous element in the environment essential to the human diet and widely utilized in industrial processes. Fatal human selenium intoxication is rare. The authors report a case in which investigators recovered a bottle of gun-bluing agent beside a 24-year-old man. He exhibited signs and symptoms typical of acute selenium intoxication presenting with nausea and vomiting, followed by pulmonary edema and rapid cardiovascular collapse approximately 3 to 4 h after ingestion. Classic electrocardiographic (EKG) changes, which have been reported to occur in acute selenium intoxication, included sinus tachycardia with ST wave alteration. Toxicological results confirmed elevated blood and tissue concentrations. The cause of death was ascribed to acute selenium intoxication, which ensued rapidly after oral consumption. The manner of death was suicide. This case report, which presents an overview of acute and chronic selenium poisoning, underscores the value of thorough toxicologic analyses of tissue and body fluids in humans.     

Survey of crowbar and household paints in burglary cases-population studies, transfer and interpretation

Experimental data useful for the interpretation of paint evidence recovered during burglary cases were obtained. A population study was carried out on 41 blue crowbars seized on suspects in Switzerland and 37 blue paints traces found at burglary scenes. Paint traces were also searched on the blades of 207 crowbars seized by the police in Switzerland and 24 white traces were analysed: these paints were analysed using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to estimate relative frequencies of each paint type. Simulated contacts were carried out between crowbars and painted wood in order to study the phenomenon of transfer and to evaluate the amount of paint transferred: a total of 198 simulations were carried out including individual, successive and cross transfer. The paint properties such as the chemical composition and its age influenced the amount of paint transferred. Cross transfer from the tool paint to the wood and vice versa was regularly observed. Moreover, secondary transfer of paint coming from the preceding wooden surfaces was also systematically observed: this could establish links between several burglary scenes and a suspected tool. A scenario of a burglary case involving the cross transfer between tool and household paints is proposed as a numerical example: the evaluation of such case was formalised using likelihood ratios based on the experimental data obtained.