Betting on the Future with a Cloudy Crystal Ball? How Financial Theory Can Improve Revenue Forecasting and Budgets in the States

Accurately predicting revenue growth is nearly impossible. Predicting the peaks and valleys of the business cycle is even more hopeless. This matters because tax revenues are largely driven by economic growth. Volatile, unpredictable revenue growth causes all sorts of unpleasant responses on the part of governments, most commonly manic-depressive patterns of spending and taxing. Fortunately, modern financial economics gives us a set of tools that can be used to manage volatility. This article shows how such tools can be used to inform fiscal decision making. The focus here is state governments, but the analysis applies to all jurisdictions that face hard budget constraints and therefore must balance spending increases against revenue growth.     

The Violence of Persuasive Argument: Using Durkheim to Outline a Latent Barrier to a Nonviolent Criminology

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of a form of violence that represents a potential barrier to the development of a nonviolent criminology. Using several contentions drawn from Emile Durkheim’s theory of crime and punishment, it is proposed that persuasive arguments entail a component of violence where they contradict strong collective sentiments. The general nature and normality of this form of violence are outlined. In addition, it is suggested that although neglect of this violence may allow progressive researchers to maintain nonviolent self-conceptions, such neglect also may serve the interests of “intellectuals” while undermining the power of “nonintellectuals.” The violence of persuasive argument thus constitutes a problematic paradox for scholars who embrace nonviolence and equitable distributions of power.

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Joint match probabilities for Y chromosomal and autosomal markers

Empirical tests of association between Y chromosome and autosomal markers are presented and a theoretical framework for determining a joint match probability is recommended. Statistical analyses of association were performed in 16 US populations between the autosomal genotypes from loci CSF1PO, FGA, THO1, TPOX, vWA, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S512, D21S11 and Y chromosome haplotypes from loci DYS19, DYS385ab, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS438, and DYS439. The sample populations include individuals of European-, African-, Hispanic-, Native-, and Asian-American ancestry. The results are consistent with independence of Y and autosomal markers, although small amounts of dependence would likely have escaped our tests. Given the data in hand, we suggest it is appropriate to compute joint match probabilities by multiplying the Y haplotype frequency with the appropriately corrected autosomal frequency. In addition to correcting for autosomal frequency differences between groups, a further correction may be required. Since two individuals sharing the same Y haplotype are likely to be more recently related than two randomly chosen individuals, the autosomal frequencies have to be adjusted to account for this, akin to the theta correction used to account for population substructure. The structure imposed on the autosomal frequencies conditioned in a Y match is a function of the number of markers scored and their mutation rate. However, in most settings theta<0.01. When population structure is already present in the autosomes, the additional effect due to conditioning on the Y is small. For example, if the amount of structure in the population is theta=0.01 or 0.03 (the NRCII range), then the effect of conditioning on the Y results in only a trivial increase in theta to 0.02-0.04, respectively.     

The psychological effects of solitary confinement on prisoners in supermax units: reviewing what we know and recommending what should change

This article examines the psychological consequences of short- and long-term solitary confinement for prisoners in the United States subjected to administrative or disciplinary segregation. Particular attention is paid to the use of secure housing units, alternatively known as control units or supermax units. These correctional entities allow for the isolation of convicts under conditions that offer little sensory stimulation and minimal opportunities for interaction with other people. The circumstances typically found in these units and the heightened potential for the abuse of prisoners are described. The connections between internment and mental illness-as well as isolation and race, gender, and class-are explored. A set of recommendations for the reform of secure housing is presented.     

The Gottfredson-Hirschi critiques revisited: reconciling self-control theory, criminal careers, and career criminals

Revisiting Gottfredson and Hirschi's critiques of criminal career research, the current study views low self-control as being analogous to criminal propensity and examines its predictive validity of career criminality among 723 incarcerated delinquent youths. Four key findings emerged. Compared to noncareer offenders, career criminals had significantly lower levels of self-control. Second, youths scoring one standard deviation above the mean on the Self-Control Scale had an odds ratio of 5.36 of becoming a career criminal. Third, self-control predicted career criminal membership with receiver operator characteristic-area under the curve sensitivity accuracies between 74% and 87%, suggesting that self-control is a potentially useful screening device for chronic criminality. Fourth, low self-control was overwhelmingly the strongest predictor of career criminality and far exceeded the impact of age, race, ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic status, mental illness, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis, and trauma experience. Further integration between self-control and criminal career research is urged.     

Support groups for battered women: Research on their efficacy

An evaluation of 12 support groups for women victims of domestic assault revealed substantial benefits associated with group participation. A total of 76 women responded to an assessment package before, immediately after, and six months following the group. Significant improvements were found in self-esteem, belonging support, locus of control, less traditional attitudes towards marriage and the family, perceived stress, and marital functioning. Unexpectedly, clients currently living with their spouses also reported significant decreases in both physical and nonphysical abuse.