An evaluation of Pakistan's third five year plan

The decline in the share of agriculture and increase in secondary production's share have generally been found to accompany changes in per capita income. Cross‐section data have long exhibited such a ‘pattern of development’. Recent panel information combining cross‐section and time‐series data seemed to extend the behaviour to time series. Using analysis of co‐variance tests for such patterns over time, the paper rejects the assumption of homogeneous patterns over time. In addition 45 per cent of the individual countries deviate from the expected time series pattern. Thus such patterns certainly do appear in cross‐sections, but their existence across countries over time is not confirmed.     

Interpreting Polak: Monetary analysis in ‘dependent’ economies

The Polak model is ordinarily considered to be a quantity theory view of the world, in which the level of income is determined by changes in the stock of money. This interpretation is not warranted by close examination of the model, which can equally well be interpreted as a purely Keynesian framework for income determination, modified to reflect the particular characteristics of an open, developing economy. And because of these modifications, the Polak model leads to policy conclusions quite distinct from either of the standard macro theories.     

Evaluating the economic impact of a special credit programme: KIK/KMKP in Indonesia

This article discusses a study of the economic impact of Indonesia's KIK/KMKP programme of special credits for small‐scale enterprises. Our major focus is on how to measure economic impact. It discusses the concept of ‘impact’, the survey design, the statistical framework, and the practical problems of implementation, and briefly summarises the findings. We believe that our methodology generated reasonably reliable data and fundamentally sound estimates of the credit programme's direct impact on employment, output and income.