Progress Toward the Determination of Correct Classification Rates in Fire Debris Analysis,,

Principal components analysis (PCA), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) were used to develop a multistep classification procedure for determining the presence of ignitable liquid residue in fire debris and assigning any ignitable liquid residue present into the classes defined under the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E 1618‐10 standard method. A multistep classification procedure was tested by cross‐validation based on model data sets comprised of the time‐averaged mass spectra (also referred to as total ion spectra) of commercial ignitable liquids and pyrolysis products from common building materials and household furnishings (referred to simply as substrates). Fire debris samples from laboratory‐scale and field test burns were also used to test the model. The optimal model's true‐positive rate was 81.3% for cross‐validation samples and 70.9% for fire debris samples. The false‐positive rate was 9.9% for cross‐validation samples and 8.9% for fire debris samples.     

Manx Law: A Contribution from the Isle of Man*

This article provides a rare insight into the legal system and jurisprudence of the Isle of Man by the island's Second Deemster.

The author describes, inter alia, the judicial structure, sentencing and impact of international jurisprudence on the work of the judiciary of the Isle of Man, before outlining the island's constitutional position with the United Kingdom and with England and Wales.

The author argues against intellectual and judicial insularity: ‘Laws should be developed and problems solved by reaching out for knowledge and solutions that may be provided by approaches from jurisdictions beyond our local frontiers’. However, in reaching out to foreign jurisdictions, it is emphasised that account must be taken of local history, traditions, laws and needs.     

ATTITUDES TO COMMUNITY RELATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND: SIGNS OF OPTIMISM IN THE POST CEASE-FIRE PERIOD?

This article uses attitudinal data to explore Catholic and Protestant perspectives on community relations and equality since the paramilitary cease fires in 1994. Although attitudes tend to fluctuate with the ‘headline grabbing’ events of the day, the article argues that there are signs that some fundamental changes have taken place in the post cease fire period. Of particular importance in this regard is the positive response recorded by the Catholic community towards government measures to tackle disadvantage and inequality. Equally significant is the protestant response to many of these measures which is often one of ambivalence rather than derision. In so far as the data appear to challenge the ‘zero-sum’ game that traditionally underpins relations between the two communities in Northern Ireland, they provide some grounds for optimism. Yet such optimism is tempered somewhat by the seeds of discontent which are manifest within the protestant community, particularly around issues of equality in employment and cultural traditions. Despite the more positive assessment of community relations and equality in 2002, it is argued that further monitoring will be required to determine the long-term effects of policy reform on relationships between the two communities.     

The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War

Saddam's Iraq has become a cliché in the study of military effectiveness—the quintessentially coup-proofed, personalist dictatorship, unable to generate fighting power commensurate with its resources. But evidence from the later years of the Iran-Iraq War actually suggests that the Iraqi military could be quite effective on the battlefield. What explains this puzzling instance of effectiveness, which existing theories predict should not have occurred? Recently declassified documents and new histories of the war show that the Iraqi improvements stemmed from changes in Saddam's perceptions of the threat environment, which resulted in significant shifts in his policies with respect to promotions, training, command arrangements, and information management in the military. Threat perceptions and related changes in these practices also help explain Iraq's return to ineffectiveness after the war, as evident in 1991 and 2003. These findings, conceived as a theory development exercise, suggest that arguments linking regime type and coup-ridden civil-military relations to military performance need to take into account the threat perceptions that drive autocratic leaders’ policies toward their militaries. After discussing how to define and measure battlefield effectiveness, the article reviews Saddam's changes and their effects; addresses alternative explanations for the improvement in Iraqi effectiveness; and explains how further research based on this initial exercise could generate a better understanding of the observed variation in states’ battlefield effectiveness, including variation within and across autocratic regimes.     

Evaluation of preliminary isotopic analysis (13C and 15N) of explosives A likelihood ratio approach to assess the links between semtex samples

Currently, the use of isotopic ratio as corroborative evidence in criminal trials is explored. Beyond the analytical challenges that have been reported elsewhere, the crucial issue of the interpretation of analytical results in a fair and balanced way remains poorly documented. The aim of this paper is to propose a likelihood ratio approach for the evaluation of stable isotope data acquired from semtex samples. It will also lead to recommendations in relation to the acquisition of normalised international data.     

Power and Contentment

In a recent article in this journal ( Politics Vol. 17 No. 1), Colin Hay rethinks the radical conception of power developed by Steven Lukes. Hay argues that the failure to keep analytical and normative questions distinct means that Lukes mistakenly conflates the identification and critique of power relations. To circumvent this problem, Hay redefines the concept in terms which remove normative questions from the analysis of power. In this article, the contention is that the definition proposed by Hay does not meet his objective. It is argued that, contrary to Hay and other critics, the radical conception of power can be made to work within the terms originally articulated by Lukes.     

Autism behind bars: a review of the research literature and discussion of key issues

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may experience difficulties coping at all levels of involvement in the criminal justice system. Questions remain, however, regarding the presence and type of difficulties faced by individuals with ASD in the context of incarceration within prison settings. Despite the potential impact for community safety and concerns regarding justice, these issues have received very little academic attention. The research that does exist is generally limited by poor methodology and small sample sizes. The current paper provides a brief review and discussion of the limited extant literature regarding the experiences of prisoners with ASD with the view to summarising areas of difficulties potentially faced by such individuals. It is hoped that this brief review may highlight the need for academic attention in order to inform practice and policy regarding the criminal justice response to this potentially vulnerable population.     

Packed primaries and empty caucuses: voter turnout in presidential nominations

In presidential nomination contests, the number of voters participating in selecting the presidential candidates varies considerably across states. In the same election year, turnout in presidential nomination contests ranges from less than 1 % of party supporters participating in some caucuses to record breaking turnout levels upwards of 50 % in primaries in other states. This variation is attributable, in part, to the electoral rules, which vary across states, years, and parties. In this paper, I provide a comprehensive examination of the extent to which party and state rules affect voter turnout in nomination contests from 1980 to 2012. Using the normal partisan support score as the voter turnout denominator, I find that primaries, open contests, and proportional representation rules result in higher levels of turnout. I also show that within the window of competitiveness, turnout is higher in states that hold contests later in the nomination season. Overall, my analysis provides insight into the institutional structures that influence the number of people who participate in the presidential nomination process and enhances understanding about the factors that affect voter turnout.