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91.
Carlos de la Torre 《International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society》1999,12(4):533-534
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A large literature has studied the trend of greaterpolarization between Democrats and Republicans in Congress.This paper empirically examines the extent to which inflationand unemployment explain cyclical movements ofpolarization over time. An informal application of thestandard Downsian spatial competition model of partiesgenerates the following relationships, ceteris paribus: (1)inflation should be associated with policy convergence, (2)unemployment should be associated with polarization, (3) theeffect of unemployment on polarization should be larger inmagnitude than the effect of inflation on convergence, and (4)the effect of unemployment on polarization should be strongerin the House than in the Senate. We estimate the relationshipbetween vote records and business cycle conditions over the1947–1999 period using a GLS model with varying lags. Ourresults are broadly consistent with these business cyclehypotheses of polarization, though greater support is found inHouse data than in Senate data. 相似文献
95.
Chronicle of a Survival Foretold: How Protest Behavior Against Armed Actors Influenced Violence in the Colombian Civil War, 1988–2005 下载免费PDF全文
Carlos Enrique Moreno León 《拉美政治与社会》2017,59(4):3-25
This article examines the circumstances under which civilians, using protests as a mechanism, alter the strategic use of violence by armed actors (rebels and state forces). By examining the civil war in Colombia between 1988 and 2005, this study finds that combatants decrease their attacks against the population when civilians protest against the enemy. Combatants interpret such demonstrations as costly signals of loyalty. Furthermore, when insurgents are the target of the protests, insurgents increase repression against civilians as rebels get stronger. In contrast, state forces (and paramilitaries) compensate for their weakness in the area by multiplying civilian victims. Both state forces and rebels, however, are likely to decrease violence against civilians when civilians protest against both parties in contested zones. In such contexts, armed actors are likely to refrain from retaliation because any violence might drive noncombatants toward the enemy. 相似文献
96.
胡安·卡洛斯·莫雷利 《拉丁美洲研究》2005,27(2):10-12
首先 ,请允许我感谢中国社会科学院国际合作局和拉丁美洲研究所 ,邀请我与尊贵的同事、学者和中国党政领导一道 ,参加这次国际学术论坛。我们十分清楚 ,无论对中拉关系在各个领域的发展 ,还是对拉美人民的福祉来说 ,召开本次论坛的倡议都具有重要意义。我们十分积极地参加这次活动 ,企望能够使人们更好地了解我们问题的所在 ,了解我们怎样一起着手解决这些问题 ,这将有助于我们为维护持久的利益 ,实现稳定、持续和长久发展的目标而努力。我谈的主题是“2 0 0 1年经济危机之后阿根廷的形势”。我国历史上规模最大的这次危机是怎样产生的 ?我… 相似文献
97.
Carlos Martin Molina Ph.D. Kristopher D. Wisniewski Ph.D. Jonathan Drake M.Sc. Alejandra Baena Ph.D. Ana Guatame M.Sc. Jamie K. Pringle Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2020,65(1):266-273
Colombian forensic investigators required assistance locating clandestine burials of missing persons related to human right atrocities from 14 years ago. Geoscientific search methods were trialled, including a predictive spatial statistical model, using various input and database information, to select the most likely grave locations in difficult mountainous terrain. Groundwork using forensic geomorphology, near-surface geophysics (ERT) and subsequent probing identified suspect burial positions. One site was in mountainous terrain and the other in former school grounds, both difficult to access and in poor weather conditions. In the mountainous area, a negative resistivity anomaly area was identified and intrusively investigated, found to be a buried rock. In school grounds, after MESP and intelligence were used to identify a burial site, surface depressions were identified, and ERT datasets collected over the highest priority depression; intrusive investigations discovered a hand-dug pit containing animal bones. This approach is suggested for Latin American searches. 相似文献
98.
Janis van der Westhuizen Carlos R. S. Milani 《Cambridge Review of International Affairs》2019,32(1):22-42
Development cooperation is a foreign policy tool marked by deep-seated conflicts of interest and dilemmas of particular relevance to second-tier and non-nuclear countries that aim to change their international status and role. Building on the concept of ‘graduation dilemma’, this article compares specific dilemmas that Brazil and South Africa face in their foreign policies concerning the development cooperation agenda at three levels: the domestic, the regional and the global level. The research question guiding this analysis is: how does the graduation dilemma manifest in relation to Brazil and South Africa’s role in development cooperation? 相似文献
99.
This article proposes a research agenda for the organization of the executive branch in Latin America by reviewing the literature on the U.S. and Latin American presidencies and outlining the research gap between them. The study finds that while strong, regionwide patterns have been established about cabinets in Latin America, research is lagging behind on the presidential center, presidential advisory networks, and their effects in policymaking. The article sets forth a series of research questions and suggests a combination of quantitative, social network, and case study strategies to address them. 相似文献
100.
We explore a setting where the central bank is offered an incentive scheme by an interest group, in addition to the contract designed by the government. We prove that the inflation bias can be eliminated when principals do not cooperate and have different output or inflation objectives. These conclusions contrast with those of Chortareas and Miller (Public Choice 121:131–155, 2004). The reason is that our analysis takes into account the participation constraints of the central bank. We also show that, if principals cooperate, the inflation bias is eliminated when their output target is different but not when they disagree over the inflation objective. 相似文献