Beyond ethics and evidence: Learning to look at the intended and unintended consequences of our actions

The human service professions have traditionally taken a narrow perspective on what constitutes ethical and effective practice. We are taught to use simplistic code-based models to judge whether our actions are ethical and in-the-moment measures to determine if we are being effective. If we observe no harm in the period of our intervention, then we believe our actions are ethical. Similarly, if we observe some positive change, then we believe our interventions are effective. However, when we examine our work within a broader context and over a longer period of time we can come to different conclusions. This article illustrates several problems with these current methods and suggests alternative ways of examining ethics and effectiveness.     

Direct Government Investment: Perverse Privatization or New Tool of Government?

In recent years, public administration scholars have called attention to a blurring of the boundaries between the public and private sectors. However, little attention has been focused on the administration of public programs that seek to impact private markets through direct government investment in private firms. The direct government investment approach is a new tool of government that has been applied in several countries and at multiple levels of government. Through an analytic mix of theory and attention to practice, this article leverages a deep case analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program to propose and utilize criteria for examining justifiable rationales for direct government investment, areas of administrative capacity necessary to manage such investments, and potential pitfalls of this new tool of government.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

APEC labour markets: Structural change and the Asian financial crisis

This study examines the impacts of longer-term structural changes on the labour markets of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies, as well as the short-run labour market consequences of the Asian financial crisis. All APEC economies have experienced significant structural change in the process of development. A major factor in this structural change has been increased trade intensity (increase in exports and imports as a share of GDP) that has occurred over the last 20 years. Because these structural changes have been extensively induced by trade liberalisation, this study provides insights into the likely consequences of the implementation of APEC's agenda on trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation. The impact of structural change is examined using a range of data, such as disaggregated changes in output and employment by industry and occupation over the period 1980 to 1997, and data on changes in trade intensity for each of the APEC nations. Other data, such as changes in rates of urbanization, are also used to indicate the other important concomitant effects of economic transformation. For several Asian economies, the linear path of growth and structural change was severely disrupted by the Asian financial crisis. This article examines the impact of this crisis on Asian labour markets, in general, and those most affected by the crisis, in particular. In many countries within the region, a failure of education and training systems to respond to often rapid shifts in the skill composition of labour demand is leading to industry and occupation specific labour shortages. International labour migration within the APEC region is viewed as a product of these structural changes and a mechanism that assists in filling gaps in the labour markets of the region's economies.     

Small parties in the new bundesländer: Bündnis 90/die grünen in brandenburg

This article considers party system development in the eastern Länder looking at the fate of the small parties that have seen their aggregate share of the vote dwindle at successive state elections to the extent that the eastern states display a three‐party system comprising the CDU, the SPD and the PDS. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and the FDP are notable casualties, since they are now extra‐parliamentary parties, having previously enjoyed the status of coalition partners. Bundnis 90/Die Grünen in the Land of Brandenburg is singled out for detailed analysis as a representative of this fate. Paradoxically, the fact that Biindnis 90 had been successful in the 1990 Landtag elections contributed to its downfall in 1994. This position of power meant that there was no incentive for key members to meet compromises and merge with the Greens. The resulting split in the party following an exceedingly acrimonious merger process did not help the party's chances at the next Landtag elections.