Neglected challenges to evidence-based policy-making: the problem of policy accumulation

Claims for evidence-based policy-making are motivated by the assumption that if practitioners and scholars want to learn about effective policy design, they also can. This paper argues that this is becoming more and more challenging with the conventional approaches due to the accumulation of national policy portfolios, characterized by (a) a growing number of different policy targets and instruments, that (b) are often interdependent and (c) reformed in an uncontrolled way. These factors undermine our ability to accurately relate outcome changes to individual components within the respective policy mix. Therefore, policy accumulation becomes an additional source of the well-known ‘attribution problem’ in evaluation research. We argue that policy accumulation poses fundamental challenges to existing approaches of evidence-based policy-making. Moreover, these challenges are very likely to create a trade-off between the need for increasing methodological sophistication on one side, and the decreasing political impact of more fine-grained and conditional findings of evaluation results on the other.     

Social Policy in Hard Times: Crisis-Coping Strategies in Europe from 1976 to 2013

ABSTRACT

Scholarly contributions linking welfare state and crisis management literature still lack a consistent conceptualization of the central matter of interest. To remedy this shortcoming, this article provides a classification of four potential crisis-coping strategies and analyzes the policy outputs of 11 European countries from 1976 to 2013 on the basis of an innovative dataset. The analysis shows that strong deviations from the status quo ante are the rule rather than the exception in times of economic hardship. Furthermore, it reveals a clear shift from the crisis-coping strategy of “Social Protectionism” over “Muddling Through” and “Welfare State Restructuring” to “Austerity” over time.     

Religious tides: The time‐variant effect of religion on morality policies

Morality policies evince a much closer relationship to religious doctrines than is the case in other policy areas and hence constitute a most likely case for the observation of religious effects on policymaking and regulatory change. Yet we still lack generally accepted answers to the questions of whether and how religion matters to morality policy. In this paper, we present a theoretical argument that helps to overcome the seemingly contradictory expectations derived from the secularization and religion matters hypotheses. We postulate a bottleneck effect of religious opposition: while religious influence matters most during early stages of the policy process when the problem definition of a moral issue is still in flux, it diminishes during later stages when the issue has made it onto the political agenda. We find evidence of the bottleneck effect in a dataset of policy permissiveness covering 26 countries and spanning 50 years for five morality policies (abortion, euthanasia, homosexuality, pornography, and same‐sex marriage). The data is analyzed via a multilevel model and using Bayesian inference.     

The Hong Kong Policy of the People's Republic of China, 1949-1997

China's policy toward Hong Kong in the period 1949-1997 was primarily driven by utilitarian calculations of national interests and the interests of the Chinese Communist Party. The Hong Kong policy of China, as an integral part of its foreign policy, was distinctive in that ideological fervor and nationalist passions had limited influence. The goals to be achieved by the Hong Kong policy remained unchanged throughout the period; the strategies adopted, however, changed in accordance with the changing international situation and the national interests as defined by the Chinese leaders. The primary goals of the Hong Kong policy were to secure a less threatening external political environment for China and to make calculated use of Hong Kong for China's economic development. By tolerating Hong Kong as a British colony, China also depended on Britain to control the potentially threatening anti-Communist Chinese population there. The 'over-dependence' on the British to control the Chinese people in Hong Kong on the eve of Hong Kong's reversion to China, however, alienated the Hong Kong people as well as impeded the formation of local political leaders in the territory. As a result, the acquisition of Hong Kong by China in 1997 has not been accompanied by political rapport between the Chinese government and the Hong Kong people, thus sowing seeds for lingering friction between them.     

Subaortic Pseudoaneurysm of the Left Ventricle Complicating Staphyloccal Endocarditis*

Abstract: Subaortic pseudoaneurysms are rare but can be a cause of sudden death in young individuals. This case report involves a 20‐year‐old Vietnamese male who died suddenly from rupture of a subaortic pseudoaneurysm with resultant hemopericardium with tamponade. He had a history of bicuspid aortic valve with recent but healed Staphylococcal endocarditis. A review of the literature reveals few similar cases and enlightens the association between aortic bicuspid valve, endocarditis, and subvalvular aortic aneurysm. The pathogenesis as well as recent studies that identified aneurysm predisposing genes in patients with bicuspid aortic valve will be discussed.     

Voters' wrath? Policy change and government popularity

Recent research suggests that voters are bad at responding in a meaningful way to policy events when deciding for whom to vote. Voters rely on so‐called “blind retrospection”, punishing governments for events outside politicians' control. However, another core aspect of the blind retrospection perspective has not been put to the test: are voters unable to respond to policy decisions that clearly are under the politicians' control? We construct a unique large‐N dataset on legislative changes in German old age pensions and unemployment protection to see if cutbacks and expansions lead to lower/higher support for the government. Our data are exceptionally fine‐grained and allow us to track the policy‐vote link for 416 months from 1977 to 2013 with a total of 329,167 respondents. We find substantial support for the notion that voters react in a meaningful way to policy changes, but also that they can be distracted by high‐profile, extreme events.     

The Influence of Maternal Acculturation,Neighborhood Disadvantage,and Parenting on Chinese American Adolescents’ Conduct Problems: Testing the Segmented Assimilation Hypothesis

Associations among neighborhood disadvantage, maternal acculturation, parenting and conduct problems were investigated in a sample of 444 Chinese American adolescents. Adolescents (54% female, 46% male) ranged from 12 to 15 years of age (mean age = 13.0 years). Multilevel modeling was employed to test the hypothesis that the association between maternal acculturation and adolescents’ conduct problems could be explained by differences in mothers’ reliance on monitoring and harsh discipline. In addition, guided by segmented assimilation theory, measures of neighborhood disadvantage were expected not only to be related to differences in parenting, but also to moderate the effects of maternal acculturation on parenting. Results indicated that increased maternal acculturation was related to higher levels of maternal monitoring and lower levels of harsh discipline, which, in turn, were related to lower levels of adolescents’ conduct problems. Hierarchical linear modeling results revealed that neighborhood disadvantage was related to lower levels of maternal monitoring. However, neighborhood disadvantage did not moderate the link between maternal acculturation and parenting practices.