“I Had a Confidence Epiphany!”: Obstacles to Combating Post-Identification Confidence Inflation

Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled "confidence inflation." Wells et al. (1998) Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603-647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed about the eyewitness' confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.     

An ethics ensemble: abortion, Thomson, Finnis and the case of the violin-player

Abstract.  This paper considers approaches to the ethics of abortion and putative links to "rights" debates. In particular, it revisits two papers on the topic from the early 1970's, written by Judith Jarvis Thomson and John Finnis respectively. Consideration of the discourse produced by these papers to some extent reveals the strategic importance of linguistic and conceptual organisation—the rhetorical forces underlying claims to disinterested, analytical standing. In particular, the paper reviews the practical ethics analogy proposed by Thomson; the deployment of "Hohfeldian" rights analysis by John Finnis, the link to the abortion debate and the broader implications of such deployment in its relation to current "rights" discourse.     

Performance characteristics of the Cozart RapiScan Oral Fluid Drug Testing System for opiates in comparison to ELISA and GC/MS following controlled codeine administration

Oral fluid is an interesting alternative matrix for drug testing in many environments, including law enforcement, workplace drug testing, and drug treatment facilities. Performance characteristics of the FDA-cleared, qualitative, Cozart RapiScan Opiate Oral Fluid Drug Testing System (Opiate Cozart RapiScan System or Opiate CRS) were compared to the semi-quantitative Cozart Microplate EIA Opiate Oral Fluid Kit (Opiate ELISA) and to gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The following oral fluid opiate cutoffs were evaluated: the GC/MS limit of quantification (LOQ) of 2.5 mg/l; 15 microg/l currently used for oral fluid testing in the United Kingdom (UK); 30 microg/l (Opiate CRS cutoff); and 40 microg/l, the proposed Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) cutoff. Subjects provided informed consent to participate in this IRB-approved research and resided on the closed research ward throughout the study. Three oral codeine doses of 60 mg/70 kg were administered over a 7-day period. After a 3-week break, subjects received three doses of 120 mg/70 kg within 7 days. Oral fluid specimens (N = 1273) were analyzed for codeine (COD), norcodeine (NCOD), morphine (MOR) and normorphine (NMOR) by GC/MS with an LOQ of 2.5 microg/l for all analytes. MOR and NMOR were not detected in any sample; 26.5% of the specimens were positive for COD and 13.7% for NCOD. Opiate CRS uses a preset, qualitative cutoff of 10 microg/l; this is equivalent to 30 microg/l in undiluted oral fluid as the oral fluid collection process involves a 1:3 dilution with buffer. Sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of Opiate CRS compared to Opiate ELISA were 98.6, 98.1, and 98.2% at a 30 microg/l cutoff and 99.0, 96.2, and 96.6% at a 40 microg/l cutoff. Compared to the much lower GC/MS LOQ of 2.5 microg/l, sensitivity, specificity and efficiency were 66.8, 99.3 and 90.7%. Increasing the GC/MS cutoff to the current UK level yielded performance characteristics of 81.5% (sensitivity), 99.3% (specificity), and 95.4% (efficiency). Using a GC/MS cutoff identical to the preset Opiate CRS cutoff yielded sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of 88.5, 99.2, and 97.5%, respectively. At the proposed SAMSHA confirmation cutoff of 40 microg/l, sensitivity increased with little change in specificity and efficiency (91.3% sensitivity, 98.9% specificity, and 97.5% efficiency). Oral fluid is a suitable matrix for detecting drugs of abuse. Opiate CRS, with a 30 microg/l cutoff, is sufficiently sensitive, specific and efficient for oral fluid opiate analysis, performing similarly to Opiate ELISA at the same cutoff, and having performance characteristics >91% when compared to GC/MS at the proposed SAMHSA cutoff.     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

Motives for suicide--a study of Australian suicide notes

Analysis of a large sample of suicide notes from 262 suicides in Australia found that men less often had escape from pain as a motive for their suicides and more often had love/romantic problems. The suicides of older persons were more often motivated by escape from pain and less often had love/romantic problems.     

Explaining a health care paradox

The paradox of a statistically weak linkage between physician density and measures of health based on outcome has recently received much attention because of its importance to health planning policy. It is demonstrated here that the linkage is stronger than indicated by previous studies if the statistical model is more carefully specified. A single case-type is chosen so that the impact of physician services is not filtered out by the aggregation process and a quantitative variable measuring case severity is derived. When statistical techniques are applied to correct for case-risk and for the inherent heteroscedasticity in observed mortality rates across states and time, the positive effect of physician density on health is shown to be statistically highly significant. Thus the apparently paradoxical findings in previous studies may be a result of failing to correct not only for differences in case severity but also for variations in sample errors. Also, even though the magnitude of physician impact is small compared to non-medical variables, an exploratory estimate of the impact of government programs focused on prevention suggests that present allocations between prevention and treatment may approximate optimality.The project upon which this paper is based was performed pursuant to Research Grant HS01036 from the Bureau of Health Services Research and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare. The author wishes to acknowledge the advice and encouragement of Llad Phillips and H. E. Frech.