Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

The paper presents a revised method for estimating national vote shares using aggregate data from local government by-elections. The model was originally developed to forecast the annual outcome of local elections but was adapted in time to provide an accurate forecast of Labour’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election. However, over the past decade the changing pattern of party competition which has seen parties becoming more selective about which elections to contest has led to more elections being excluded from the modelling because they failed to meet the exacting criteria that all three major parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats, had contested both the by-election and the previous main election, normally held in May. Relaxing these criteria, although increasing the number of available cases would adversely affect the forecast, over- or under-estimating party votes. Instead, the revised method overcomes the problem of differential competition by estimating vote shares for parties that contest one but not both elections. A further innovation is the calculation of a weighted moving quarterly average which takes account of the number of days elapsed between the by-election date and the date of forecast. Using the new method we provide estimates for likely party shares for the 2010 general election.     

Quantifying the Temperature of Maggot Masses and its Relationship to Decomposition

Numerous Calliphoridae species have been observed to form larval aggregations during the feeding stage of development, resulting in localized increases in temperature. This study investigates the relationship between maggot numbers in a mass and heat generation. Single‐species aggregations (Lucilia sericata) of various sizes (50–2500 individuals) were reared in the laboratory at a constant ambient temperature of 22°C. Internal mass temperatures were recorded every 5 min throughout the feeding stage of development. Results showed that mass temperatures increased with mass numbers (p‐value < 0.001), ranging from 2.5 to 14°C above ambient. A minimum mass size of 1200 produced overall temperatures that were significantly warmer than ambient, diverging away from 22°C after c. 26 h. These results indicate that the microclimate of a mass has the potential to differ significantly from ambient, which may be influencing larval development rates and should therefore be factored into mPMI estimates to increase accuracy.     

Whatever Happened to Thatcherism?

Throughout the 1980s and the early 1990s the pages of journals such as this were filled with debate – invariably heated – on the nature, extent, significance and reversibility of Thatcherism. Today the echoes of a once deafening clamour have largely subsided. Thatcherism has all but disappeared from the lexicon of British political analysis. My aim in what follows is to reflect on this passing and what it indicates about the state of our understanding of this once most contentious of phenomena. I do so by considering the two most significant recent additions to the vast literature on the subject, Peter Kerr's Postwar British Politics: From Conflict to Consensus (2001) and Richard Heffernan's New Labour and Thatcherism: Political Change in Britain (2000). ¹     

Liberal Neutrality Or Liberal Tolerance?

This paper explores tensions in Ronald Dworkin's liberal theory (and liberalism more generally) about the appropriate relationship of the state to the different conceptions of the good that may be adopted by its citizens. Liberal theory generally supposes that the state must exhibit a kind of impartiality to different conceptions of the good. This impartiality is often thought to be captured by an anti-perfectionist ideal of liberal neutrality. But neutrality is often criticized as an ideal that lacks adequate theoretical support and is difficult to reconcile with liberalism's commitment to government support of various elements of a community's culture. Nonetheless, Dworkin has tried to explain systematically how his egalitarian brand of liberalism can explain the appropriateness of a particular variety of neutrality. I argue, however, that Dworkin's account of the relationship between liberalism and the good is ambiguous. I suggest that an ideal of tolerance which embraces a mild form of perfectionism fits better with the egalitarian foundations of Dworkin's liberalism than neutrality. Moreover, tolerance is an ideal through which familiar tensions about the liberal state's relationship to the good may be resolved.