HIERARCHICAL MANAGEMENT MONITORING: A Regional Data Collection System in Delinquency

We describe a systematic way of collecting and organizing information on juvenile delinquency. Monthly data are collected from agencies such as police, courts, and corrections, by county and city. These data are aggregated into figures for different levels of administrative responsibility (such as counties, districts, areas, states, and region as a whole). Trends in monthly values are automatically detected, and sudden changes in rates are signaled. Agencies at each administrative level receive appropriate feedback of data on rates, trends, and signals.     

PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS

This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations.     

ADVERSARY POLLING AND THE CONSTRUCTION OF SOCIAL MEANING: Implications in Gun Control Elections in Massachusetts and California

Opinion survey data have been used to assert that the public's desire for serious gun control has been blocked by the "gun lobby." This construction is opposed by a survey-based counter construction developed by the gun lobby. The superiority of the gun lobby's construction is supported by this article's survey data and by analysis of actual elections in 1976 in Massachusetts and in 1982 in California. What blocks the public from getting strict gun control is that the public does not want it.     

MEASUREMENT ERROR IN CALLS-FOR-SERVICE AS AN INDICATOR OF CRIME*

Several recent studies have used records of calls-for-service (CFS) to police 911 centers to measure crime at the address, neighborhood, and city level. This article examines the limitations of this “new” indicator of crime. After pointing out several types of error in dispatch records, we use data from an observational study of policing in 60 neighborhoods to examine empirically how these errors might bias CFS-based crime counts and discuss the consequences of such bias. We conclude with suggestions for future research on the validity of CFS as an indicator of crime.     

THE ROLE OF ARREST IN DOMESTIC ASSAULT: THE OMAHA POLICE EXPERIMENT *

This paper reports on a replication of the Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment in Omaha, Nebraska. Suspects who were eligible for the experiment were randomly assigned to one of three police dispositions: mediation, separation, or arrest. No differences by disposition were found in prevalence or frequency of repeat offending, using jive measures of recidivism to assess outcome six months after police intervention. A survival analysis, using three of the measures for which dates of failure were available, also produced no differences by disposition     

The Effect of Curfew Laws on Motor Vehicle Crashes

Twelve states in the U.S. have curfew laws, which prohibit young drivers from operating motor vehicles during late evening or early morning hours. The effect of such laws on motor vehicle crashes was studied in four of these states. In each state the laws were found substantially to reduce the crashes of sixteen year olds. Sixteen year old driver crash involvements during curfew hours were reduced by an estimated 69 percent in Pennsylvania, 62 percent in New York, 40 percent in Maryland, and 25 percent in Louisiana. Except in Maryland, the percentage of the sixteen year old population licensed was lower in curfew than comparison states. It is possible that curfew laws reduce early licensure, in which case reductions in crash involvements resulting from curfews are greater than shown above.     

ON THE PERFORMANCE OF COMPETITIVELY TENDERED, PUBLIC SECTOR CLEANING CONTRACTS

Quantitative analysis of competitive tendering and contracting typically focuses on their effect on the cost of providing public sector services. In this article we turn to the systematic factors that appear to influence the performance of cleaning contracts. This is defined as compliance with contract specification, public perception of service quality and other qualitative measures of service characteristics as observed by the contracting authority. Our analysis attempts to isolate particular features of contract design, monitoring and enforcement that influence performance positively or negatively. Econometric results based on a sample of public sector cleaning contracts suggest that contractor selection procedures and contract enforcement mechanisms have the greatest influence on performance.