Comparing NOMINATE and IDEAL: Points of Difference and Monte Carlo Tests

Empirical models of spatial voting allow us to infer legislators' locations in an abstract policy or ideological space using their roll‐call votes. Over the past 25 years, these models have provided new insights about the U.S. Congress, and legislative behavior more generally. There are now a number of alternative models, estimators, and software packages that researchers can use to recover latent issue or ideological spaces from voting data. These different tools usually produce substantively similar estimates, but important differences also arise. We investigated the sources of observed differences between two leading methods, NOMINATE and IDEAL. Using data from the 1994 to 1997 Supreme Court and the 109th Senate, we determined that while some observed differences in the estimates produced by each model stem from fundamental differences in the models' underlying behavioral assumptions, others arise from arbitrary differences in implementation. Our Monte Carlo experiments revealed that neither model has a clear advantage over the other in the recovery of legislator locations or roll‐call midpoints in either large or small legislatures.     

ROMANTIC PARTNERS' INFLUENCE ON MEN'S LIKELIHOOD OF ARREST IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Female romantic partners' influence on official crime occurrence for men across a 12‐year period in early adulthood was examined within a comprehensive dynamic prediction model, including both social learning and social control predictors. We hypothesized that relationship stability, rather than attachment to partner, would be associated with reduced likelihood of crime, whereas women's antisocial behavior would be a risk factor, along with deviant peer association. Models were tested on a sample of at‐risk men [the Oregon Youth Study (OYS)] using zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP) modeling predicting 1) arrest persistence (class and count) and 2) arrest onset class. The findings indicated that women's antisocial behavior was predictive of both onset and persistence of arrests for men and that deviant peer association was predictive of persistence. Relationship stability was protective against persistence.     

Road to Ruin? A Spatial Analysis of State Highway Spending

Do states engage in infrastructure expenditure competition to attract new economic activity? Economic theory is inconclusive on the matter. States might respond to increased infrastructure spending in competitor states by increasing their own infrastructure spending. Conversely, states may decrease spending in the presence of positive spillovers from competitor states' infrastructure investment. Using spatial econometric techniques and focusing specifically on highway spending, we demonstrate that states expend less on highways when spending in neighboring states increases. We explore this possibility further by modeling state personal income growth as a function of own‐state and neighbor‐state highway spending. Our findings suggest positive spillovers influence interstate relationships for highway spending rather than race‐to‐the‐top competition for economic activity.     

SOCIOLOGICAL AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENTAL EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: CONFLICT OR CONSENSUS?*

This paper examines multidisciplinary correlates of delinquency in an attempt to integrate sociological and environmental theories of crime with human developmental and biological explanations of crime. Structural equation models are applied to assess links among biological. psychological, and environmental variables collected prospectively from birth through age 17 on a sample of 800 black children at high risk for learning and behavioral disorders. Results show that for both males and females, aggression and disciplinary problems in school during adolescence are the strongest predictors of repeat offense behavior. Whereas school achievement and family income and stability are also significant predictors of delinquency for males, early physical development is the next strongest predictor for females. Results indicate that some effects on delinquency also vary during different ages. It is suggested that behavioral and learning disorders have both sociological and developmental correlates and that adequate educational resources are necessary to ensure channels of “legitimate opportunities” for high -risk youths.     

THE EVOLUTION OF THE GOVERNMENT-BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP IN THE UNITED STATES: COLONIAL TIMES TO PRESENT

Everything has a history. At least part of the answer to any question about the contemporary world can come from studying the circumstances that led up to it⃜The more you understand about these past influences, the more you will know about the present subject to which they are related.¹     

Diversifying Municipal Government Revenue Structures: Fiscal Illusion or Instability?

This paper examines (1) whether revenue diversification leads to greater instability as represented by revenue volatility, and (2) whether revenue complexity produces fiscal illusion as represented by increased public expenditures. These questions are answered by analyzing panel data on municipal governments between 1970 and 2002. The findings suggest that fiscal illusion does not occur among municipal governments, but revenue diversification does influence levels of volatility. However, the way in which municipalities diversify is important for achieving revenue stability. When diversification is considered in isolation, both tax and nontax diversification reduce revenue volatility. When diversification and complexity are considered simultaneously, the statistical effect of nontax diversification disappears. But, when a tax revenue structure is both diversified and complex, the likely outcome is greater revenue volatility rather than stability.