Rural housing market response to nonfarm employment growth: an analysis of housing development patterns

This paper describes uses of economic impact models to examine labor force and housing relationships associated with regional employment changes, including area-wide labor demands, expected housing needs in response to changes in the labor force size, and the predicted quantity of new housing units that will be developed. The perspectives analyzed represent important elements in economic development planning, especially in light of the tremendous competition for firms and workers among cities and states in the U.S. today. Rural development officials report difficulty attracting residential labor force members and reason that the absence of housing starts in rural places is inhibiting future growth prospects. The paper demonstrates how input-output, econometric, and spatial analysis methods can be combined to assist decision makers in determining the overall value of regional economic growth and the labor and housing impacts of that growth. Special attention is given to delineating the spatial dimensions of labor and housing markets in rural, urban, and metropolitan settings.     

The Determinants of Local Government's Financial Transparency

This paper contributes to the scarce literature on government transparency by analysing the impact of political and socio-economic factors on municipal financial transparency. Our sample covers the 100 largest Spanish municipalities in 2008. Compulsory publicity and transparency are key to public management (rule-of-law theory). Our data show that Spanish municipalities are providing financial information beyond the legal requirements, thus exceeding the compulsory disclosures required by the rule-of-law theory. The more taxes and more transfers per capita, the more financial information is disclosed and, accordingly, the higher the transparency is. Therefore the municipalities are not taking advantage of fiscal illusion or principal–agent effects, since they are not concealing higher levels of taxes and transfers from citizens. Furthermore, left-wing parties are more transparent than right-wing ones. Finally, the population also has a positive effect on the achievement of financial transparency.     

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public–Private Partnerships: Contractual Choice in the US Water Industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the US water sector through public–private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labour is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.     

Reviews and commentary

The (a)ble, (b)rave, and “c” of sis

Anthony Cave Brown: The Secret Life of Sir Stewart Graham Menzies, Spymaster to Winston Churchill Macmillan, New York, 1987, 830 p., $25.00.

Sentries in the Senate

William S. Cohen and George J. Mitchell: Men of Zeal: A Candid Inside Story of the Iran‐Contra Hearings Viking Press, New York, 1988, 350 p., $19.95.

Disappointing Stalin: Cold War Compromises

Christopher Simpson: Blowback: America's Recruitment of Nazis and Its Effect on the Cold War Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, New York, 1988, 290 p., $19.95.

Flaws in the Perfect Book on Technowar

James William Gibson: The Perfect War: Technowar in Vietnam The Atlantic Monthly Press, Boston, Mass., 1986, 523 p., $24.95.     

The changing nature of the transatlantic link: U.S. approaches and implications for Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines the changing security, economic and diplomatic components of the transatlantic link, with a particular focus on Washington's approach and implications for Central and Eastern Europe. The United States continues to play an essential role as security underwriter in the region, but the military dimension of the transatlantic relationship is transforming and will result in greater burdens on Europeans. Economic links between the U.S. and Central Europe are developing more strongly than generally understood, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is likely to drive both political and economic ties. Unconventional gas developments are enhancing U.S. engagement in European energy markets. Finally, the U.S. remains keen to engage its European partners on a broad agenda of global and regional issues and retains its own interests in working particularly with Central and Eastern European countries to lend stability to ‘wider Europe’.     

The Lebanese Hizballah and Israeli Counterterrorism

This article examines Israel's attempts to weaken and defeat the Lebanese Hizballah. It reviews Hizballah's rise after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hizballah's successful effort to force Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, the 2006 war, and Israeli attempts to deter Hizballah. The article argues that Israel has largely failed to defeat Hizballah militarily and politically. Israel's experience offers lessons for how terrorist groups learn, the effectiveness of terrorist attrition strategies against casualty-sensitivity states, the difficulties in coercing terrorist groups, and the importance of an information strategy. Finally, Israel's clash with Hizballah indicates the importance of thinking of groups that are large and multi-faceted from a counterinsurgency paradigm.     

Curious Victory: Explaining Israel's Suppression of the Second Intifada

The article examines Israel's successes and failures during the Second Intifada. It argues that Israel's advances came from an effective counterterrorism campaign involving a mix of military operations, defensive measures, and in particular improved intelligence gathering. Domestic resilience also proved strong in the face of a brutal terrorism campaign. Yet long-term victory remains elusive for Israel. Deterrence, always difficult against terrorist groups, is growing harder for Israel. Hamas's control of Gaza, and the mistrust and hatred sown during the Second Intifada, have hindered a political deal between Israel and moderate Palestinians. Much of what went into successful counterterrorism, notably the security barrier and the aggressive campaign of raids and arrests, does not jibe with most visions of what peace would look like and makes a deal harder to achieve. To make a peace deal work, Israeli counterterrorism must change, with measures including relocating parts of the security barrier, bolstering moderate Palestinian politicians, and working with, as opposed to undermining, Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.     

The Ulster Defence Regiment and the Question of Catholic Recruitment, 1970–1972

This article aims to consider the factors which led to a serious under-representation of Catholics within the Ulster Defence Regiment (UDR) during the Northern Ireland “Troubles.” A considerable number of UDR members were implicated in collusion with loyalist paramilitaries in their targeting of Catholic civilians throughout the conflict. Further, neither the British political nor military establishment made any significant moves towards addressing Catholic grievances regarding the UDR during the crucially formative years of 1970–1972. Despite this, Catholic under-representation has often been discussed with sole or particular reference to Republican paramilitary targeting of Catholic members of the force; this is in order to dissuade any further such involvement on the part of this demographic. The validity of such assertions will be examined in this article, along with a number of other factors which have been hitherto largely underplayed or outright ignored as contributing to this under-representation.     

An Autopsy of the Iraq Debacle: Policy Failure or Bridge Too Far?

This article examines whether the outbreak of an insurgency after the U.S. invasion of Iraq was an avoidable policy failure or whether the structural conditions surrounding the occupation made such an outbreak inevitable. Several U.S. policy mistakes, in particular the deployment of too few troops, a lack of comprehensive political and military planning for the occupation, disbanding the Iraqi military, the failure to establish a government in waiting, and overly aggressive de-Baathification, greatly exacerbated rather than ameliorated the various structural problems. More fundamentally, structure and policy choices interacted at all levels to explain the Iraq failure. The unavoidable conditions that coalition forces encountered in Iraq—a divided society devastated by years of war, sanctions, and misrule—and the political context in the United States made the challenge for successful policy execution difficult. This structure constrained and delimited the options open to U.S. policy makers but, even within those narrow limits, the United States made many bad choices that further diminished the chances of success.

A particularly important series of policy mistakes occurred well in advance of the buildup to war itself. The orientation of the U.S. armed forces away from counterinsurgency, the failure to establish a political settlement before invasion, and other controllable policy choices in the prewar period all led to enormous difficulties during the occupation itself. Thus, by the time of the invasion, these policy choices had become almost like structural constraints and the failures had a snowballing effect, making policy corrections far more difficult.     

Assessing psychopathy in young people: the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version for a sample of Spanish offenders

In this study, we assessed the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a Spanish sample of juvenile court-involved youths. Although recent Anglo-Saxon literature on the topic supports the usefulness of psychopathic traits in adolescent offenders for predicting recidivism and future violence, little is still known about their predictive ability for other cultures. The results of this study suggest that the PCL:YV possesses adequate concurrent criterion-related validity (by using self-reported version of Antisocial Process Screening Device) and retrospective validity (particularly as regards the antisocial, but also the affective–interpersonal domain). Specifically, retrospective validity was confirmed by positive correlations with history of truancy at school, poor parenting, parental delinquency, self-reported antisocial behaviour and illicit behaviour patterns including violent offences recorded in official files; however, careful analysis revealed that the Lifestyle and Antisocial factors are the main dimensions related to past offences, whether violent or otherwise. In conclusion, the PCL:YV is a convenient instrument for assessing psychopathy, and, hence, the risk of criminality, in youths.