TARGETING EFFICIENCY OF SOCIAL SECURITY PROGRAMS*

Abstract: The program budgeting and related reforms initiated by the Commonwealth in 1985 require federal departments and agencies to set objectives for their programs and to develop performance measures to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of these programs. This paper examines the targeting efficiency of Australia's social security programs and finds that these are among the most efficient of OECD countries.     

The effects of delayed menarche in different contexts: Dance and nondance students

The premise that effects of maturational timing are mediated by social context is explored by comparing adolescent girls in dance and nondance schools. Because the dance student must maintain a relatively low body weight, being a late maturer (who is often leaner than an on-time maturer) is expected to be more advantageous to the dancer than to the student not required to meet a weight standard. Girls aged 14 to 18 were seen; 276 attended private schools and 69 attended national ballet company schools. AllSs were weighed and measured and asked questions about their secondary sexual development, weight-related concerns, eating concerns, adult sex-role expectancies, body image, emotional functioning, and family relationships. Menarcheal age was used to classify girls as early (before 11.5 years of age), on time (between 11.5 and 14 years), and late maturers (after 14 years). More dance than non-dance school students were late maturers (55% versus 29%). The dance students weighed less and were leaner, had higher eating scores, and had lower family relationship and impulse control scores than the comparison sample. Across groups, late maturing students weighed less, were leaner, and had lower diet and higher oral control scores than on-time maturers, with the differences more pronounced in the dance than nondance students. In addition, the on-time dancers had higher psychopathology, perfection, and bulimia scores and lower body image scores than the late maturing dancers. The findings are discussed in terms of a goodness of fit between the requirements of a social context and a person's physical and behavioral characteristics.This paper was prepared with the support of grants from the W. T. Grant Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania. Research Interests: Girls' psychological adaptation to pubertal change, biosocial aspects of female reproductive events, development in at-risk children and adolescents.     

Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.     

Social Support, Risk-Level and Safety Actions Following Acute Assessment of Suicidal Youth

The purpose of the pilot study was to examine the interrelationship between social support, risk-level, and safety actions for 2 groups of suicidal adolescents (50 attempters and 50 ideators), who had presented for an acute assessment at an outpatient mental health service. A social support model was proposed in which it was thought that information related to patients' social support would impact upon the types of risk-level and safety actions made by clinicians. Data was collected from a total of 100 patient files, utilizing the acute assessment reports (e.g., reports assessing risk of self-harm). Findings show that groups differed significantly on indices of negative support severity, positive support, and risk-level. Limited support was found for the proposed social support model. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

Perceptions of repressed memories: A reappraisal

College students read a trial summary of a sexual abuse case. The victim in the case either claimed that (a) her memory for the abuse had been repressed for 20 years and only recently recovered during therapy, or (b) she consciously remembered the abuse for 20 years but never discussed it until recently in therapy. Participants were significantly more likely to convict the defendant when the testimony was described as nonrepressed (67%) versus repressed (58%). This effect was not modified by the age of the victim at the time the alleged abuse occurred (either 3, 8, or 13 years of age), although the younger and older victims were significantly less believable than the 8-year-old victim. Compared to female participants, male participants were significantly less likely to convict the defendant and rated the victim as significantly less believable. These findings are discussed in the context of recent research on juror reactions to repressed memory testimony.     

When Initial Interviews Are Delayed a Year: Effect on Children's 2-Year Recall

Three- to nine-year-old children were interviewed about a medical emergency (injury requiring hospital ER treatment) two years after it occurred. Half of the number of children had been interviewed shortly after injury as well as 6 and 12 months later, while the remaining children had had only one prior interview a year after injury. There was remarkably little long-term deterioration in memory by both groups. Having a delayed initial interview had two effects, and both were relevant only to the harder-to-remember hospital treatment event: (a) The late-interview group was less accurate, and (b) early-interview children had more extensive free recall, suggesting that multiple prior interviews teach children the “rules of the memory game' when they are asked open-ended questions. Forensic implications are discussed.