Routes to party choice: Ideology,economic evaluations and voting at the 1997 British General Election

Abstract. Most conventional accounts of voting behaviour fit single models to the entire electorate, implicitly assuming that all voters respond to the same sets of influences, and do so in similar ways. However, a growing body of research suggests that this approach may be misleading, and that distinct groups of voters approach politics, and the electoral decision, from different perspectives. The paper takes a disaggregated look at voting in the 1997 British General Election, dividing voters into different groups according to their formal educational qualifications. Results suggest that different groups of voters respond to different stimuli, depending on their education, and on the party they are voting for.     

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

The campaign dynamics of economic voting

This paper considers the relationship between election campaigns and the impact of economic evaluations on vote choice. The motivation is the standard expectation that the campaign generally serves to amplify the significance of economic considerations in the voter's calculus—to focus his/her attention on this “fundamental” element of the electoral decision. Drawing on survey data from ten national elections across four countries (Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and applying both parametric and semi-parametric statistical techniques, the paper finds no support for this proposition. The paper reflects on the significance of this conclusion for work on political learning during election campaigns, the literature on economic voting, and the study of electoral behaviour more generally.     

Black and (thin) blue (line): Corruption and other political determinants of police killings in America

Police violence is not uncommon in America, and the risk of civilians' being killed by police is considerably higher here than in similar countries, making it a major public health issue. For Black Americans the risk is significantly higher. In this study, we analyze the political determinants of police killings of Black Americans, with a specific focus on corruption in American states. Our evidence suggests that police can kill Black Americans with impunity because of a lack of accountability—exemplified by corruption—that is largely determined by political influences. Our findings point to ways in which the responsibility for police violence and killings is deeply rooted and influenced by the values of the wider society.     

A study of the intermolecular interactions of lipid components from analogue fingerprint residues

A compositionally simplified analogue of a latent fingermark was created by combining single representatives of each major component of a natural fingermark. Further modified analogues were also produced each having one component removed. The aim of this study was to investigate the intermolecular interactions that occurred within these analogue samples using Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) Microspectroscopy. FT-IR microspectroscopy showed that the absence of squalene and cholesterol significantly restricted the interactions between the other organic constituents within the analogue samples. Investigating the intermolecular interactions of organic compounds within a simplified analogue solution could indicate corresponding interactions that occur within natural fingermarks. These potential interactions could go on to be the target of further investigation of latent fingermark chemistry, and ultimately contribute to a better understanding of the aging processes and degradation mechanisms that take place post-deposition.     

Political Ideology,Public Policy and Human Development in India: Explaining the Gap Between Gujarat and Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Four decades ago the Indian states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu had identical scores on the human development index. Both states have since experienced similar rates of economic growth and Gujarat has received more foreign investment, but Tamil Nadu has witnessed much stronger advances in human development. What explains this divergence? Through comparative historical, statistical and public policy analysis and interviews, we conclude that the implementation of government policies as a manifestation of political ideology and the quality of public administration have played a defining role in explaining Gujarat’s more lopsided and Tamil Nadu’s more balanced human development trajectories. Our findings suggest that a more egalitarian ideology and higher quality of public administration have been crucial to Tamil Nadu’s success in simultaneously improving human and economic development.     

Editors’ Introduction

Abstract

This article explains why the United States has not fought a preventive war against North Korea despite that country’s moves to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I argue that the absence of war is mainly attributable to military strategies that the US military has with regard to North Korea. With only attrition strategies available, the United States neither expects to lose a precious military opportunity nor anticipates grave future vulnerabilities vis-à-vis North Korea. The prospect of a costly attritional campaign deters both Washington and Pyongyang from resorting to military force. Straightforward attrition strategies also allow little chance for miscalculation, thereby making inadvertent escalation to war unlikely. The research finds sufficient evidence for my argument, whereas conventional explanations offered by international relations theory fall short when applied to this case.     

Defining appropriateness in coach-athlete sexual relationships: The voice of coaches

Abstract

The sporting culture, with omnipotent coaches, fierce competition for recognition and funding, and ‘win at all costs’ ethos, creates an environment conducive to sexual exploitation of athletes. Recent increased public awareness and the development of child protection policies in sport have led to the questioning of previously accepted coach-athlete relationships. This study is an exploratory investigation into male swimming coaches' perceptions of appropriateness of coach-athlete sexual relationships. Sexual relationships with athletes under the age of 16 were unanimously considered totally inappropriate. With regard to sexual relationships with athletes above the age of consent, opinions ranged from ‘totally inappropriate’ to ‘it’s a question of civil liberties.' These results are discussed in relation to how coaches have adapted their own behaviours in the face of public scrutiny but are still reluctant to restrict the rights of their fellow coaches.     

The convention on biological diversity: Ten years on and the strategic plan

Abstract

The Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (Convention) has taken 114 decisions and launched programmes of work to address five biome‐based themes and thirteen cross‐cutting issues. The challenge for the Convention now is to demonstrate, through action and deed, that it is an effective vehicle for implementing this policy. In response to this challenge, the Conference of the Parties at its fifth meeting, in May 2000, decided to initiate a process to develop a Strategic Plan for the Convention that would provide an important mechanism for the implementation of this policy. This Note, which is an abridged version of document UNEP/CBD/MSP/2, has been prepared to assist participants in this Conference to provide more focused suggestions for the development of the Strategic Plan for the Convention.