False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Re‐casting the politics of steel in Europe: The impact on trade unions

In this article we explore the response of European trade unions to the 1990s steel crisis. Trade unions have faced wide ranging challenges including: the globalisation of the industry; steel companies becoming increasingly international; privatisation; the eastern European steel market; the liberalisation of world trade; the new emerging priorities of the EU and internal company reorganisation. Our key argument is that their response has been highly traditional and unsuited to the new challenges. When we consider the more progressive responses they have made, there is little sign that these alternatives will be anymore successful.     

Regional Economic Governance: A Technology of Government or Regional Autonomy in New South Wales?

The focus of this paper is on the extent to which emerging forms of regional economic governance may be read as the burgeoning formation of regionally constituted, self-governing communities, and yet, somewhat ambiguously, as a new technology of central government. It begins by considering the distinction between ‘governance’ and ‘government’ and the extent to which current regional economic governance practices in the state of New South Wales, Australia, hold the promise of regional autonomy. With reference to the French philosopher and historian, Michel Foucault, a brief history is sketched of government rationality, indicating how the historically changing aims of government implicate various concomitant technologies. With this in mind, it is argued that contemporary regional economic governance practices in NSW do not so much reveal a new-found regional autonomy but rather a new technology of government.     

The Friendly Media Phenomenon: A Cross-National Analysis of Cross-Cutting Exposure

We hypothesize that in the real world, as opposed to the lab, the norm is for people to experience friendly media that favor their political predispositions when political favoritism is perceived at all. For this reason, media are generally limited in their ability to create cross-cutting exposure. We test this hypothesis using representative survey data drawn from 11 different countries with varying media systems. We further hypothesize that television will contribute more to cross-cutting exposure than newspapers. Finally, and most importantly, we test the hypothesis that the more the structure of a country's media system parallels that of its political parties, the more that country's population will be dominated by exposure to like-minded views via mass media. We find confirmation for all 3 of these hypotheses and discuss their implications for the role of mass media in providing exposure to cross-cutting political perspectives.     

Exposure to Maternal- and Paternal-Perpetrated Intimate Partner Violence, Emotion Regulation, and Child Outcomes

The current study examined the relationship of maternal- and paternal-perpetrated intimate partner violence (IPV) to children’s internalizing and externalizing symptomatology. Mother-child dyads (N?=?53; child ages 8–11) reported maternal- and paternal-perpetrated IPV exposure and measures of child symptomatology. Results demonstrated that: (a) maternal- and paternal-perpetrated IPV have similar but not identical relations with child outcomes, (b) mothers’ and children’s reports of paternal-perpetrated IPV were positively related, (c) mother and child report of maternal- and paternal-perpetrated IPV related to child emotional and behavior problems, and (d) emotion dysregulation mediated the link between IPV exposure and child outcomes. Notably, findings differed by reporters. Results support emotion dysregulation as one mechanism through which IPV exposure may lead to child behavior problems, with implications for clinical intervention.     

An estimate of the proportion of drug-facilitation of sexual assault in four U.S. localities

In recent years, drugs including flunitrazepam, gamma-hydroxybutyrate, ketamine, and ethanol, have become popularly associated with drug-facilitated sexual assault. Other drugs are also candidates as factors in "drug facilitated sexual assault" (DFSA). The true extent of DFSA is not known, and is difficult to estimate. We recruited sexual assault complainants at four clinics in different parts of the U.S. to anonymously provide urine and hair specimens, and to answer questions about suspected drugging, drug use, and the sexual assault incident. Urine and hair specimens were tested for 45 drugs, including ethanol, and those pharmacologically capable of inducing sedation, amnesia, or impairment of judgment. Analytical test results were used to estimate the proportion of subjects, and the proportion of all complainants to the clinic in the same time period, who were victims of DFSA. Overall, cases of 43% of 144 subjects, and 7% of 859 complainants, were characterized as DFSA. Subjects underreported their use of drugs. The role of toxicological results and history in characterizing DFSA cases is discussed.     

Capital Offenders in Texas Prisons: Rates, Correlates, and an Actuarial Analysis of Violent Misconduct

This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).