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941.
Empirical studies of violence and mental illness have used many different methods. Current state-of-the-art methods gather
information from both subject and collateral interviews as well as official records. Typically these sources are treated as
additive. Any report of a violent incident from any source is treated as true and all reported incidents are added to generate
estimates of frequency. This paper presents a new statistical technique that uses the level of agreement between the sources
of data to adjust those estimates. The evidence suggests that, although the additive technique for using multiple sources
correctly estimates how many people are involved, it substantially underestimates the number of incidents. The new technique
substantially reduces both false negatives and false positives. 相似文献
942.
Robert Brame Edward P. Mulvey Carol A. Schubert Alex R. Piquero 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2018,34(1):167-187
Objectives
A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.Methods
Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.Results
We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.Conclusions
The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.943.
Richard Berk Lawrence Brown Andreas Buja Edward George Linda Zhao 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2018,34(3):633-655
Objectives
Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.Methods
We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.Results
We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.Conclusions
If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.944.
Parole has long been a linchpin of correctional practices but few studies have examined discretionary parole release in a female population. The current study examines factors, both static risk and dynamic needs, that influence parole decision making in a rural female jail population. The researchers collected data on parole releases from a rural county jail over a 3-year period beginning in 2012 (N?=?138). Offenders obtained a recommendation for parole release from a reentry assessment team that met at the jail each month to evaluate cases for parole eligibility. Logistic regression was used to explain variance in the factors considered by the reentry assessment team and it was evident that both static risk factors and dynamic needs play a role in discretionary parole release. We also examined obstacles or challenges that female offenders face when paroling to a rural location. Several policy recommendation related to the study are addressed. 相似文献