Is Germany Going Bananas? Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Party Performance in Germany from 1953 to 2049

In the public debate concerning the consequences of demographic change in Germany it is often argued that the rising share of older voters will help the CDU/CSU to consolidate its power. This argumentation only applies if the age effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. Based on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and Population Forecasts, the consequences of demographic shifts for federal elections since 1953 are estimated, as well as for future elections. First, age, cohort and period effects on vote choice for previous elections are calculated by using cohort analysis. Second, these effects are applied to the future age distribution. The results show that the ‘greying’ electorate is expected to favour the CDU/CSU and the FDP, while especially the SPD is likely to suffer electoral losses due to demographic shifts.     

Green consumer markets in the fight against climate change

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the greatest threats to environmental security, as attested by the growing frequency of severe flooding and storms, extreme temperatures and droughts. Accordingly, the European Union's (EU) 6th Environment Action Programme (2010) lists tackling climate change as its first priority. A key aim of the EU has been to cut CO₂ emissions, a major factor in climate change, by 8 per cent until 2012 and 20 per cent until 2020. The European Commission has proposed the encouragement of private consumer market for green products and services as one of several solutions to this problem. However, existing research suggests that the market share of these products has been only 3 per cent, although 30 per cent of individuals favour environmental and ethical goods. This article uses Public Goods Theory to explain why the contribution of the green consumer market to fighting climate change has been and possibly may remain limited without further public intervention.     

The Calculus of Consent: a compass for my professional journey

This paper investigates empirically the influence of government ideology on social policy using German data. Examining the funding and the benefits of social security and public healthcare policy, my results suggest that policies implemented by governments dominated by left- and rightwing parties were similar over the 1951?C2007 period. Leftwing governments, however, spent more in the 1970s and rightwing governments did so after German Reunification in 1990. Since policy convergence encourages new parties to enter the political arena, and party platforms on social policy matters are likely to undergo further changes in light of demographic change, the observed pattern may thus be a transitory phenomenon.     

Constitutional order in a federal republic

A review article on Vincent Ostrom, The political theory of a compound republic: Designing the American experiment (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1987). xxx + 240 pages. 22.50 cloth;22.50 cloth; 8.95 paper.     

Richard Musgrave,public finance,and public choice

Review Article

Richard Musgrave, public finance, and public choice