Stable isotope analyses of heroin seized from the merchant vessel Pong Su

A new type of heroin HCl seized in Australia was examined by stable isotope analysis. The final origin/process classification of these samples by chromatographic signature profiles of the impurity/manufacturing by-products was previously determined to be "unknown" by two independent national laboratories. Various drug enforcement authorities speculated that the heroin might be from a new region or new illicit process due to the unusual chromatographic impurity profiles that were present. Samples from 20 different kilogram packages were examined for isotopic content to determine if the samples fit isotopic patterns of known origins or if they were unique to any known origins. Authentic specimens from Southeast Asian (N=59), Southwest Asia (N=37), South America (N=104), and Mexico (N=21) we concomitantly examined for comparison purposes. Both continuous flow elemental analysis-isotope ratio mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrometry techniques were utilized. Heroin samples were also converted to morphine, without apparent isotopic fractionation, utilizing methanolic HCl for gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrometry. The Pong Su samples were found to be isotopically and isotopically/alkaloidally distinct from the known origin/process classifications of Southwest Asian, Southeast Asian, South American, and Mexican.     

Adolescent Problem Behavior and Depressed Mood: Risk and Protection Within and Across Social Contexts

This study examined risk and protection for adolescent problem behavior and depressive symptomatology in an average-risk sample of 11th graders. Using a socioecological perspective, we aggregated risk factors for adolescent problem behavior and depressed mood by 3 social contexts: i.e., family and peer contexts, and a context comprising the most important nonparental adult (VIP) in respondents' lives. Protective factors associated with these 3 contexts were also included in the analyses. We tested separate models (including outcome-specific risk and protective factors) for predicting problem behaviors and depressive symptoms; the models demonstrated divergent validity. Risk and protective factors accounted for 49% of the variance in problem behavior and 49% in depressive symptoms. Tests of interactions between risk-aggregates and protective factors yielded several significant cross-context buffering effects in the problem behavior model, but none in the depressive symptoms model. Parents' and VIP's perceived sanctions buffered adolescents against high risk for problem behavior emanating from the peer context. Additionally, perceived peers' sanctions buffered youths against risk emanating from each of the 3 contexts.     

Urban homicide: Some recent developments

We examine homicide data from fifty of the largest U.S. cities for the years 1976–1977 and, in particular, compare them to similar data for 1971–1972. The results reinforce earlier predictions that one in seventy urban residents born this decade will ultimately be murdered. However, the dispersion of murder risk as a function of race, sex, and city has apparently dropped considerably in the last few years.     

Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

The role of mandates in third party intervention

Conclusion Mandate, as a noun, is the charge that authorizes and legitimizes an intervenor's actions. The intervenor may act at the bidding of the disputants or of third party stakeholders. Mandate provides a functional taxonomy of intervenors—from go-betweens to conciliators to mediators to arbitrators to dictators. Mandate affords a perspective for analyzing initiation, process, and evaluation of intervention. Useful heuristics have been proposed for categorizing the ways in which intervenors restricted to persuasion, such as mediators, can attempt to change beliefs. Future work might seek to determine conditions under which an intervenor's persuasive abilities may change beliefs about available alternatives, about the probability that the alternative will lead to certain outcomes, and about the value of the outcome. Sanda Kaufman is Assistant Professor of Urban Studies at the College of Urban Affairs, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, Ohio 44115.George T. Duncan is Professor of Statistics at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Penn. 15213.The authors thank Mark Kamlet for many valuable discussions, Linda Argote for her thoughtful suggestions, and Christina Duncan for her criticial reading.     

Adult children of alcoholics: An exploration of Axis II disorders and replicated dysfunctional family patterns

This study examined Axis II personality disorders and replicated dysfunctional family patterns in adult children of alcoholics (ACAs). Parental and spousal confirming and disconfirming communication patterns, and replicated physical, sexual, and emotional abuses were explored. Sixty ACAs were assessed using structured clinical interviews and self-report measures. Sixty-five percent met DSM-IIIR criteria for one or more Axis II disorders. Failure to feel confirmed (valued) by one's alcoholic parent was significantly associated with ACA Axis II disorders and alcohol abuse. Significant relationships between physical and sexual abuses and Axis II pathology were found. Replication of childhood abuse and dysfunctional communication was also noted.