Is there aJ-curve for the economic transition from socialism to capitalism?

It is often assumed that the process of transition from socialism to capitalism involves a dislocation and disorganization of the economy in the early stages of the transition. Thus, it is argued, economic performance will at first worsen and then gradually improve as the new system takes hold. This paper argues that, based on evidence from Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, there is no evidence for such aJ-curve phenomenon. Using a simple macroeconomic model, we show that, in these three reforming countries, the decline in production can be explained by exogenous shocks to the balance of trade, to investments and to autonomous consumption. This finding also suggests that macroeconomic policy in these countries may be too restrictive to permit a recovery of employment and production.     

Africa's political boundaries: Colonial cartography,the OAU,and the advisability of ethno-national adjustment

This article challenges the notion that nation-state boundaries in Black Africa are best left intact despite their historically problematical origins and questionable ethnographic rationality. The increased energization and politicization of ethnic identity evident in much of Black Africa during the past generation call for reexamination of the boundaries inherited from colonialism. Although post-colonial nationalism has taken root in some countries, it has not, overall, provided the political cohesion to obviate the need for periodic boundary adjustments in light of prevailing political realities both within Black Africa and within the global political and economic systems. The underlying social and political forces evidently giving rise to politicized ethnic consciousness are not likely to recede in the near future. Accordingly, arguments concerning the rationality, and therefore the inviolability, of inherited boundaries, must be understood in light of political circumstances which have evolved during the first generation of independence from colonial rule.