What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections

The conventional wisdom among journalists and politicians is that higher turnout would benefit Democrats, although extant scholarly research suggests otherwise. We adopt a new approach to assessing the partisan impact of higher turnout. We use state-level exit polls and Census data to estimate the partisan preferences of nonvoters in Senate elections and then simulate the outcome of these elections under universal turnout. While nonvoters are generally more Democratic than voters, the dearth of close races means that very few election outcomes would have changed had everyone voted. Other scenarios—full turnout among registered voters, equal turnout rates for whites and African-Americans, and equal turnout rates across income groups—generate similar results: although Democrats fare better in each scenario, few outcomes would have changed. However, the gap between voters and nonvoters' partisan preference varies considerably across states and across years, suggesting that this "partisan differential" warrants further examination .     

After the Public Interest Prevails: The Political Sustainability of Policy Reform

The prevailing political science wisdom is that narrow interests regularly triumph over the general public. Yet the stunning passage of broad-based policy reforms in the face of intense clientele opposition suggests that the U.S. political system has a greater capacity to serve diffuse interests than has often been thought. Some of the most provocative policy-oriented political-science research during the 1980s and 1990s examined how these surprising reform victories occurred. Unfortunately, general-interest reforms do not always stick; reforms may be corrupted or reversed after their enactment. The long-term sustainability of any given policy reform hinges on the successful reworking of political institutions and on the generation of positive policy-feedback effects, especially the empowerment of social groups with a stake in the reform&s maintenance. This paper explores the postenactment dynamics of three canonical instances of general-interest reform legislation: tax reform, agricultural subsidy reform, and airline deregulation. Only in the airline-deregulation case has the self-reinforcing dynamic required for political sustainability been unmistakably evident. For analysts and advocates of general-interest reform measures alike, the clear lesson is to attend far more closely to what happens after reforms become law.     

The Development of Hazardous Waste Management as a State Policy Concern

Hazardous waste management has become a primary concern of state governments. Thk concern is relatively recent, with state governments assuming a leading role in hazardous waste policy development and implementation only in the past decade. This article outlines the scope of the hazardous waste problem to which stdegouernments must respond. The scope of the problem is then linked to changing public perceptions and intergooernmental relntionslzips to explain the expanding state government policy role in hazardous waste management.     

The behavior of congressional tenure over time: 1953–1991

This paper studies the behavior of average length of tenure for cohorts of U.S. representatives who entered office from 1953–1989. Using a new methodology, it addresses the following questions. How much longer do representatives stay in office now compared to, say, twenty years ago? If an increase in tenure has occurred, when did it begin? Are reelection outcomes or voluntary departures the primary determinants of changes in congressional tenure over time? The results of this study are then applied to a number of hypotheses concerning possible causes of longer congressional stays.     

THE WORK ORIENTATIONS OF JAIL PERSONNEL: A COMPARISON OF DEPUTY SHERIFFS AND CAREER LINE OFFICERS

Based upon interview data from 60 officers in four county jails, this paper examines the differences in the institutional work orientations and experiences of deputy sheriffs and career line correctional officers. We found that both deputy sheriffs and corrections officers felt they received little support from administrators and were treated as second-class employees. Corrections officers were more likely to emphasize the professionalism of corrections work, to reduce social distance with inmates, and to stress the importance of human relations skills in effective work performance. In contrast, deputies were more likely to emphasize the futility of corrections work, to view inmates with suspicion and distrust, and stress coercive control and order maintenance duties.     

The self-image of adolescents: A study of four cultures

This paper describes the utilization of the Offer Self-Image Questionnaire (OSIQ) for research purposes on a variety of adolescent populations and demonstrates the OSIQ's effectiveness in meaningfully separating normal, juvenile delinquent, and emotionally disturbed adolescents; older and younger teenagers; males and females. It also considers the utilization of the OSIQ in four different cultures (United States, Ireland, Australia, and Israel) and concentrates on the results obtained when the OSIQ is given adolescents in these four cultures. It discusses the findings and points to some of the methodological problems which are inherent in doing cross-cultural research.Presented at the American Educational Research Association meeting in San Francisco, California, April 20, 1976.Received his M.D. from the University of Chicago. He interned at the University of Illinois and took his psychiatric residency at Michael Reese Hospital and University of Chicago. He is a graduate of the Institute for Psychoanalysis in Chicago. Major interests have been concept of mental health and the developmental psychology of adolescence.Received his Ph.D. in human development from the University of Chicago. Research interests are adolescence and delinquency.Received his Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Chicago. Major interests are psychotherapy research and adolescence.     

The “impulsivity index”: Its application to juvenile delinquency

An objective, composite index of impulsivity, made up of three measures of reactivity to color on the Rorschach and amount of discrepancy between performance and verbal IQ on the Wechsler Scales, is proposed. It was predicted that impulsiveness as measured by this index would be associated with self-perception of impulsivity. Moreover, it was predicted that impulsiveness, whether objectively or subjectively measured, would tend to be associated with a history of greater and more frequent delinquency. The major hypotheses were confirmed. In addition, the data suggested that delinquents from higher socioeconomic levels may be more impulsive than their lower class counterparts. Additional work on refining and validating the impulsivity index is indicated.This work has been supported by Grant No. A70-15 from the Illinois Law Enforcement Commission.Currently a Ph.D. Candidate in Human Development at the University of Chicago. Major research interest is in cognitive development during adolescence.Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Major research interests are the developmental psychology of adolescence and the etiology of juvenile delinquency.Received M.D. from Marquette University. Major research interests are in juvenile delinquency and psychotherapy of adolescents.Currently a Ph.D. Candidate in Human Development at the University of Chicago. Major research interest is in juvenile delinquency.     

Supreme Court Justices’ Economic Behaviour: A Multilevel Model Analysis

Supreme Court justices are overlooked, but important, national policy‐making players who render final and consequential decisions in cases on economic conflicts. The research question asks what forces explain the decisional behaviour of Supreme Court justices in economic rights cases between a private and a public party. Theoretically, the decisional behaviour of an individual justice is a function of his or her notion as to what makes ‘good’ law, pursued in a cultural‐collegial setting that is oriented by majoritarian requirements, while constrained by the legal nature of the case being considered. Empirically, all economic decisions made by Norwegian Supreme Court justices in five‐justice panels from 1963 to 2012 are analyzed. Our multilevel model demonstrates that individual, collegial and case‐level forces all contribute to explain the justices’ votes. These results suggest that case‐related dynamics, such as who the plaintiff is or the amount of disagreement between justices, matter, but also that ideology – via appointment mechanisms – matters when a nation's high court justices decide economic cases. Understanding the foundational assumptions and the institutional procedures is vital when transporting judicial behaviour models across polities.     

Popliteal Vein Blood Sampling and the Postmortem Redistribution of Diazepam,Methadone, and Morphine

Postmortem redistribution (PMR) refers to the site‐ and time‐related blood drug concentration variations after death. We compared central blood (cardiac and subclavian) with peripheral blood (femoral and popliteal) concentrations of diazepam, methadone, and morphine. To our knowledge, popliteal blood has never been compared with other sites. Intracardiac blood (ICB), subclavian blood (SB), femoral blood (FB), and popliteal blood (PB) were sampled in 30 cases. To assess PMR, mean concentrations and ratios were compared. Influence of postmortem interval on mean ratios was also assessed. Results show that popliteal mean concentrations were lower than those for other sites for all three drugs, even lower than femoral blood; mean ratios suggested that the popliteal site was less subject to PMR, and estimated postmortem interval did not influence ratios except for diazepam and methadone FB/PB. In conclusion, our study is the first to explore the popliteal site and suggests that popliteal blood is less prone to postmortem redistribution.