When the witch doctors agree: The family support act and social science research

In 1986 the author was recruited by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan to draft new federal welfare reform legislation for the 100th Congress. The result was the Family Support Act of 1988. From the beginning it was planned that the bill would reflect the best knowledge available about helping poor families make the transition from dependence on welfare to independence and work. In contrast to the experience of the 1970s, when the “Witch Doctors” of social science seemed unable to agree on appropriate policies, research made a difference for FSA. The education, training, and work requirements in the legislation were substantially influenced by the evaluations of welfare-to-work programs conducted by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation, and the conduct of MDRC in the dissemination of these results contributed significantly to the effort's political success. Whether this marks a new phase in the connection between social policy and research is uncertain.     

Post-violence regime survival and expansion in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

Kazakhstan’s and Tajikistan’s governments were able to successfully strengthen their reach and their capacity to control the population in the wake of deadly violence against regime opponents. Yet the process of deepening authoritarianism was not a straightforward affair. Both countries expanded their coercive capabilities – they upgraded policing in rural areas to improve intelligence gathering on the local population and predict the rise of any anti-government activities. While doing so, however, leaders of both countries sought to frame their actions as an inclusive process that was sensitive to the grievances of the affected populations and the general public. This article adds to the growing body of literature on authoritarian state responses to insurgency by showing how authoritarian regimes create narratives, engage civil society and look for political advantage to expand the coercive apparatus.     

Police Personnel Affective Profiles: Differences in Perceptions of the Work Climate and Motivation

The affective profile model was used to investigate individual differences in police personnel perceptions about the working climate and its influences on motivation. The Positive Affect, Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) was used to assign police personnel, sworn and non-sworn (N = 595), to four affective profiles: self-fulfilling, low affective, high affective, and self-destructive. The work climate was assessed using the Learning Climate Questionnaire (Management Relations and Style, Time, Autonomy and Responsibility, Team Style, Opportunities to Develop, Guidelines on How to do the Job, and Contentedness). Motivation was evaluated using a modified version (to refer specifically to the individual’s work situation) of the Situational Motivation Scale (intrinsic motivation, external regulation, identified regulation, and amotivation). Self-fulfilling individuals scored higher on all work climate dimensions compared to the other three groups. Compared to low positive affect profiles, individuals with profiles of high positive affect scored higher in intrinsic motivation and identified regulation. Self-destructive individuals scored higher in amotivation. Different aspects of the work climate were related to each motivation dimension among affective profiles. Police personnel may react to their work environment depending on their affective profile. Moreover, the extent to which the work influences police personnel’s motivation is also related to the affective profile of the individual.     

Bias and Overconfidence in Parametric Models of Interactive Processes*

We assess the ability of logit, probit and numerous other parametric models to test a hypothesis that two variables interact in influencing the probability that some event will occur [Pr(Y)] in what we believe is a very common situation: when one's theory is insufficiently strong to dictate a specific functional form for the data generating process. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we find that many models yield overconfident inferences by generating 95% confidence intervals for estimates of the strength of interaction that are far too narrow, but that some logit and probit models produce approximately accurate intervals. Yet all models we study generate point estimates for the strength of interaction with large enough average error to often distort substantive conclusions. We propose an approach to make the most effective use of logit and probit in the situation of specification uncertainty, but argue that nonparametric models may ultimately prove to be superior.     

Violence in Schools: Repeat Victimization,Low Self-Control,and the Mitigating Influence of School Efficacy

Objectives

Examine the distribution of various forms of violent victimization among adolescents in school and the main and interactive effects of low self-control and school efficacy on repeat assault victimization.

Methods

This study used data collected from students and teachers as part of the Rural Substance abuse and Violence Project. We calculated a simple Poisson model of the expected frequencies of adolescents to experience each number of assault, robbery, and weapons victimizations given the total number of each type of victimization reported by the sample. We then tested whether the observed frequencies differed significantly from the expected. Finally, we estimated a series of hierarchical nonlinear models to assess the main and interactive effects of low self-control and school efficacy on repeat assault victimization.

Results

All three forms of violent victimization were non-randomly distributed across students. Low self-control was associated with repeat victimization among assault victims, though this effect was weakened significantly by school efficacy.

Conclusions

Violence in schools is highly concentrated among repeat victims. Efforts to reduce violence in schools should be focused on those who have already been victimized. Schools may be able to limit the effects of low self-control on repeat assault victimization by strengthening school efficacy.

     

Views of public health leaders in English local authorities – changing perspectives following the transfer of responsibilities from the National Health Service to local government

This paper reports on the findings of a research project that examined the changes to the public health system in England introduced in 2013. Drawing on case study research and two national surveys the findings explore the impact of organisational change on the composition and role of public health teams. Views and experiences were obtained from public health leaders involved in the transfer of staff and functions from the National Health Service in England to local authorities. National surveys at two points in time aimed to compare and contrast views on the evolving changes. The new organisational and managerial arrangements had enabled public health professionals to widen their work and influence, and public health skills and budgets were welcomed by those in local government. Initially, in some areas, directors of public health were less certain of the benefits of the transfer to local government compared to high levels of confidence expressed by elected members, but perspectives changed over time and moved closer together. National headline figures were found to mask high levels of turbulence and churn being experienced by individual authorities identified in the case study research, and the trend of reducing capacity through cuts to staff, budget and services was a cause for serious concern.     

Policy Design and Achieving Social Outcomes: A Comparative Analysis of Social Enterprise Policy

This article compares American, British, and Korean social enterprise policies to explore how government policy design shapes social enterprises and how “social benefit” and “public value” are defined. A social enterprise is defined as the legally structured organizational pursuit of blending social purpose and economic profit through business activities, and examples from each country are presented. Applying Bozeman's publicness theory, the authors demonstrate the wide range of roles that governments play in shaping social enterprises' ownership, funding, and control across the three countries using regulations, subsidies, and procurement policies. These roles may affect the impact of social enterprises in society. The case studies show that the U.S. approach to social enterprise policy is heavily market oriented, while the United Kingdom is in the middle of the market-to-publicness continuum, and South Korea is much closer to the publicness (government-dominated) end of the continuum.     

Stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry and physical comparison for the forensic examination of grip-seal plastic bags

Plastic bags are frequently used to package drugs, explosives and other contraband. There exists, therefore, a requirement in forensic casework to compare bags found at different locations. This is currently achieved almost exclusively by the use of physical comparisons such as birefringence patterns. This paper discusses some of the advantages and shortcomings of this approach, and presents stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) as a supplementary tool for effecting comparisons of this nature. Carbon and hydrogen isotopic data are presented for sixteen grip-seal plastic bags from a wide range of sources, in order to demonstrate the range of values which is likely to be encountered. Both isotopic and physical comparison (specifically birefringence) techniques are then applied to the analysis of rolls of bags from different manufacturing lots from a leading manufacturer. Both approaches are able to associate bags from a common production batch. IRMS can be applied to small fragments which are not amenable to physical comparisons, and is able to discriminate bags which could be confused using birefringence patterns alone. Similarly, in certain cases birefringence patterns discriminate bags with similar isotopic compositions. The two approaches are therefore complementary. When more than one isotopically distinct region exists within a bag (e.g. the grip-seal is distinct from the body) the ability to discriminate and associate bags is greatly increased.