The wall socket theory of learning

Teachers of policy analysis lack a theory of how students actually learn. Applying “lessons” of general validity to specific circumstances is the essential skill to be mastered. It may be taught by emphasizing lessons of universal rather than conditional relevance, “coding” them so as to improve their memorability, and adjusting the codes to match the environmental cues that students are likely to encounter on the job. Because wall sockets are everywhere in the policy analyst's environment, they symbolize the ubiquitous cue that can help the analyst draw on the coded lessons.     

Accuracy of comparison decisions by forensic firearms examiners

This black box study assessed the performance of forensic firearms examiners in the United States. It involved three different types of firearms and 173 volunteers who performed a total of 8640 comparisons of both bullets and cartridge cases. The overall false-positive error rate was estimated as 0.656% and 0.933% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, while the rate of false negatives was estimated as 2.87% and 1.87% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The majority of errors were made by a limited number of examiners. Because chi-square tests of independence strongly suggest that error probabilities are not the same for each examiner, these are maximum-likelihood estimates based on the beta-binomial probability model and do not depend on an assumption of equal examiner-specific error rates. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals are (0.305%, 1.42%) and (0.548%, 1.57%) for false positives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, and (1.89%, 4.26%) and (1.16%, 2.99%) for false negatives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The results of this study are consistent with prior studies, despite its comprehensive design and challenging specimens.     

Inter-observer error for area of origin analysis using FARO Zone 3D

In a bloodletting incident, the area of origin (AO) of an impact bloodstain pattern is crucial when establishing the sequence of events. The use of laser scanners and other three-dimensional (3D) technologies to document and analyse bloodstains have been the subject of previous papers, especially where AO analysis is concerned. FARO Zone 3D (FZ3D) is a relatively new software programme that can be used for bloodstain AO analysis. FZ3D requires a greater understanding of inter-observer errors associated with AO. This study looked at the inter-observer variation between 21 examiners when repeatedly calculating the AO six times for a single impact pattern on a plain white wall. An impact rig which consisted of a spring tension arm was positioned and fixed 45 cm from the X wall (right wall), and 45 cm from the Y wall (left wall). This experimental design resembles an impact blow for a bloodletting event. The AO was unknown to all examiners, making it a blind study. The collected results were documented in a Microsoft Excel datasheet and later analysed. From previous literature, a 30 cm acceptable allowance was utilised for AO analysis; however, there is currently no accepted standard error for this type of analysis. The overall total 3D mean error for all examiners was 5.62 cm. The maximum error for any one impact analysis was 24.27 cm. The variation of the data, which was collected by all examiners, was documented as X = 1.14 cm, Y = 1.24 cm, Z = 1.68 cm, and the total 3D error = 2.28 cm. The total 3D error for any one examiner and the variance between examiners did not exceed the 30 cm acceptable allowance utilised in previous literature.     

Developmental Validation of the ANDE 6C System for Rapid DNA Analysis of Forensic Casework and DVI Samples

A developmental validation was performed to demonstrate reliability, reproducibility, and robustness of the ANDE Rapid DNA Identification System for processing of crime scene and disaster victim identification (DVI) samples. A total of 1705 samples were evaluated, including blood, oral epithelial samples from drinking containers, samples on FTA and untreated paper, semen, bone, and soft tissues. This study was conducted to address the FBI’s Quality Assurance Standards on developmental validation and to accumulate data from a sufficient number of unique donors and sample types to meet NDIS submission requirements for acceptance of the ANDE Expert System for casework use. To date, no Expert System has been approved for such samples, but the results of this study demonstrated that the automated Expert System performs similarly to conventional laboratory data analysis. Furthermore, Rapid DNA analysis demonstrated accuracy, precision, resolution, concordance, and reproducibility that were comparable to conventional processing along with appropriate species specificity, limit of detection, performance in the presence of inhibitors. No lane-to-lane or run-to-run contamination was observed, and the system correctly identified the presence of mixtures. Taken together, the ANDE instrument, I-Chip consumable, FlexPlex chemistry (a 27-locus STR assay compatible with all widely used global loci, including the CODIS core 20 loci), and automated Expert System successfully processed and interpreted more than 1200 unique samples with over 99.99% concordant CODIS alleles. This extensive developmental validation data provides support for broad use of the system by agencies and accredited forensic laboratories in single-source suspect-evidence comparisons, local database searches, and DVI.     

Self-reported suicidal behavior and attitudes toward suicide and suicide prevention among psychology students in Ghana, Uganda, and Norway

Self-reported suicidal behavior and attitudes toward suicide in psychology students are reported and compared in Ghana, Uganda, and Norway. Small differences only were found in own suicidal behavior. However, experience of suicidal behavior in the surroundings was more common in Uganda than in Ghana and Norway. Although differences were found between the three countries in attitudes toward suicide, which emphasizes the need for culture-sensitive research and prevention, many of the differences were not as big as expected. The most pronounced difference was that the Norwegian students were more reluctant to take a stand on these questions compared to their African counterparts. Some differences were also found between the two African countries. The implications of the results for suicide prevention in Africa are discussed.     

Alternative Definitions of Headship and the ‘Feminisation’ of Income Poverty in Post-Apartheid South Africa

In measuring gender differences in the risk of income poverty, many studies use female headship as a proxy for gender. However, a number of well-documented concerns with the use of self-reported headship as an analytical category have suggested that headship is often a relatively blunt unit of analysis. Against the backdrop of a large and growing difference in income poverty rates between self-reported female- and male-headed households in post-apartheid South Africa, this study considers several alternative definitions of headship that have been proposed in the development literature. The findings suggest that there is an association between self-reported female headship and a female household member being identified as the main breadwinner. However, the conventional definition of headship is likely to underestimate the growing risk of income poverty in female-headed households (relative to male-headed households) compared with several alternative definitions. The findings also suggest that alternative definitions of female headship may be more appropriate given the narrow way in which the household is defined in most national surveys. The article concludes with a discussion of the methodological and policy implications for alternative headship based studies of poverty.     

Expanding the levels of analysis of fdi for improved understanding of policy issues: the case of mexico

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are a key component of the restructuring and external integration now underway in many Latin American national economies. This paper suggests that understanding of policy issues concerning FDI can be enriched by two complementary shifts in the levels of analysis of FDI, each of which entails more detailed attention to the strategies and operations of multinational corporations (MNCs). At the macro-level, we show why it is beneficial to expand beyond the normal analytic concern with aggregate total FDI flows to focus instead on the separate, disaggregated components of those flows--that is, equity, reinvested earnings and other long-term and short-term capital flows between parent firms and their affiliates, as recorded in the national balance of payments capital account. The microlevel shift emphasizes the importance of focusing on varieties of types of FDI, not only across different foreign investors but within individual companies as well. It demonstrates the significance of switching from the usual concentration on firms as a whole to instead accentuating examination of individual projects and products--especially the dichotomy between market-access projects producing for the host country domestic market and production-efficiency projects producing for export markets, including the home country market. These two shifts in the level of analysis complement one another, and they interact in the sense that the mix of component flows can depend in part on the type of FDI. These analytic themes are developed using evidence concerning FDI in Mexico, with special reference to the automotive industry. Such improved comprehension of FDI is particularly germane for Latin American countries that are contemplating liberalization of foreign direct investment rules or have already undertaken them and witnessed the ensuing increase of inbound FDI.     

Program analysis of the NYPD container inspection program

In response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the bus and train bombings in England and Spain that followed, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) developed the ‘Container Inspection Program’ which ‘focuses on backpacks and containers large enough to hold explosives, [and to] ideally discourage subway riders from carrying backpacks and large bags in the subway system’. This paper analyzes the NYPD Container Inspection Program.