Using Fuzzy Rule–Based Systems to Evaluate Overall Financial Performance of Governments: An Enhancement to the Bond Rating Process

Credit ratings remain a key feature of municipal debt management. The primary objective of this article is to develop a new methodology for evaluating the financial performance and creditworthiness of governments and to illustrate this approach for a sample of large American cities. Specifically, we develop a fuzzy rule–based system (FRBS) that uses economic, debt, and other financial information as well as a measure of financial management to produce rankings of city financial performance. The FRBS credit ratings are highly correlated with actual Moody's ratings for these cities. FRBS have the potential of enhancing the rating process by standardizing the information used and encouraging consistent rules about what combinations of inputs result in good, fair, or poor performance.     

Pay to protect: Examining the factors of the use of market-based instruments for local water sustainability

Given the myriad of policy instruments aimed at enhancing water quantity conservation available to municipalities, what drives them to opt for a market-based instrument (MBI)? MBIs can be effective and efficient policy instruments to enhance water quantity conservation, but there is little known about why municipalities utilize them. This study hypothesizes that three contextual elements influence a municipality's use of an MBI: the natural, political, and structural environment. The results from two logistic regression models suggest that in a municipality suffering a higher drought level, both a conservative political environment and operating under a council-manager form of government (with the effect more pronounced under a non-council-manager form) will increase the likelihood that it will use an MBI to address water conservation.     

A Comparison of Four Presumptive Tests for the Detection of Blood on Dark Materials

Detection of blood on dark materials is difficult for crime scene examiners so presumptive tests are used to assist. This study compared the ability of luminol, leuko crystal violet, tetramethylbenzidine, and Combur Test®E to detect whole, diluted blood (1:100) and a key‐shaped blood transfer stain (1:10), on dark cotton sheeting, tea towel, socks, synthetic carpet, and car mats. Powdered bleach was used to evaluate specificity of the blood detection tests. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and overall misclassification rate (OMR) assessed the quality of the blood tests. Luminol was the preferred test for diluted blood having the highest sensitivity (79%–96%), NPV (66%–93%), and the lowest OMR (3%–15%). Luminol was also found to be most efficient with a testing time on 25 items of 2 h 50 min compared with up to 8 h. Overall, luminol was the most effective method, also providing information on bloodstain patterns.     

‘Working’ the international child protection case: a snapshot of local authorities’ experiences within an evolving legal context

Child protection proceedings often concern children with international connections. In recent years, the courts of England and Wales have handed down a number of significant judgments examining the application of international legal instruments (in particular Brussels IIa) to care proceedings. This article considers the impact of court judgments on the practical ‘working’ by Local Authorities of international child protection cases. A case study was conducted, oriented by socio-legal theory, consisting of a small number of qualitative interviews with Local Authority lawyers and social workers. The article concludes that some judgments have acted as a catalyst to change working practices for Local Authorities. However, international child protection cases present a variety of challenges for Local Authorities, and judgments provide an imperfect site for the provision of procedural and substantive guidance in this complex area. Further, there was often a tension between the need to conscientiously adhere to such guidance, and the welfare needs of the children with whom the Local Authority was concerned.     

Constructing citizenship? Women, welfare and refugees in France, 1939-1940

Women were central to the provision of welfare services in France during the refugee crises of the late 1930s. By building on the services created during the First World War, women, as either volunteers or professionals, actively cared for refugees and others during the Spanish Civil War (1936-39), the phoney war (September 1939-May 1940) and the German invasion of 1940. French women's involvement with refugee aid enabled them to develop a sense of autonomous civil and political activism, especially—although not exclusively—in their work with the French Red Cross. In addition, the history of welfare activities for refugees illuminates how ordinary people dealt with the extraordinary circumstances of war, invasion and the forced movement of populations.     

Expert Testimony Regarding Child Witnesses: Does It Sensitize Jurors to Forensic Interview Quality?

Does expert testimony on forensic interviews with children help adults distinguish between poorly conducted and well-conducted interviews? This study evaluates the effects of social framework expert testimony regarding child witnesses in a case involving allegations of child sexual abuse. A 2 (Expert Testimony: present or absent) × 3 (Child Forensic Interview Quality: poor, typical, or good) × 2 (Child’s Age: 4- or 10-year-old) factorial design was used to examine whether expert testimony is prejudicial or beneficial to jurors (N = 463). The results revealed that, without expert testimony, mock jurors did not consider the forensic interview quality when reaching a verdict. However, with expert testimony, mock jurors were more likely to render guilty verdicts if the interview quality was good versus poor. Further expert testimony increased mock jurors’ knowledge about child witnesses. These findings suggest that expert testimony related to the impact of interview techniques on the reliability of children’s reports may assist fact-finders in evaluating child abuse cases.     

Mortgages, seniors and the common law contractual doctrine of mental incapacity in Australia

Seniors in Australia are being called upon to mortgage their most precious economic asset, the family home. They may be asked to guarantee the liabilities of other family members by providing a mortgage-based guarantee or they may decide to enter into a reverse mortgage to supplement financially their savings and pensions. As the family home is the single most valuable asset for most older Australians, the creation of any obligations in regard to it ought to be undertaken with care and vigilance. While seniors are free to create mortgages, they may lack the capacity to understand the legal ramifications of these complex transactions or be unable to protect their interests when entering into them. It is not suggested that older Australians necessarily suffer a lack of contractual capacity. Many seniors are more than able to take care of their interests and assets. However, some seniors do suffer cognitive impairment which adversely affects their capacity to act in their best interests and to navigate the complexities of contractual relations. In contract and mortgage law, this raises the issue of mental incapacity.For centuries, the common law has recognized not only that mentally incapacitated people exist, but that they may enter into contracts such as mortgages and may later wish to have the mortgage set aside. The present formulation of the contractual doctrine of mental incapacity is the product of 19th century jurisprudence in which the courts framed the doctrine to accommodate commercial dealing rather than the interests of persons who lacked the necessary mental capacity. Accordingly, the doctrine has been very difficult to rely on successfully when challenging mortgages made by persons lacking capacity. Therefore, Australian litigators and courts alike have sought to deal with mental incapacity issues in the contractual context by using and modifying other doctrines (such as non est factum, undue influence and unconscionable dealing) in which the issue of capacity may be incorporated, but where mental incapacity need not be the sole or primary focus. While this had led to greater success for mortgagors, this has been at the expense of the common law doctrine. The article concludes by offering some suggestions as to how the doctrine may be modernized and mental capacity dealt with in a way both to empower competent seniors and protect those vulnerable seniors suffering cognitive impairment.     

Conceptualising and combating transnational environmental crime

To date, transnational environmental crime has been poorly attended to by the transnational organised crime and transnational policing discourse. Academics have focused on individual elements of environmental crime, neglecting a broader theoretical discussion, while national and international institutions have prioritised other forms of organised crime, giving little thought to the nuanced nature of transnational environmental crime and how this should be reflected in policing and countermeasures. This paper attempts to rectify this by conceptualising transnational environmental crime and suggesting ways forward for countermeasure development. The paper will begin by looking at the problem of environmental crime, its value, scope and effects, concluding that the damaging nature of transnational environmental crime demands a greater focus on its policing. The nature of transnational environmental crime will then be discussed by reference to traditional forms of organised crime. It will be argued that, while transnational environmental crime is a form of organised crime, and has some features in common with the traditional organised crimes, such as drug smuggling and people trafficking, it is the substantial differences that should guide the approach to developing countermeasures. The development of effective countermeasures, it is concluded, requires a significant change in policy at every level.