Simply Criminal: Predicting Burglars’ Occupancy Decisions with a Simple Heuristic

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin’s Rule captured burglars’ decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars’ decisions than Franklin’s Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin’s Rule. The most important cue in burglars’ models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.     

Judges,Litigants, and the Design of Courts

Two important perspectives on courts highlight fundamentally different elements of adjudication and yield distinct predictions about judicial outcomes. The Attitudinal Model of judicial voting posits judge ideology as a strong predictor of court outcomes. Alternatively, the Law and Economics perspective focuses on the settlement behavior of litigants and reasons that while judges may vote ideologically, litigants adapt to these ideological proclivities, nullifying the effect of judge ideology. This analysis focuses on reconciling expectations about the effects of judge ideology and litigant strategies by examining their contingent nature and the conditioning effects of institutional design. The analysis examines state supreme courts from 1995–1998 to identify empirical evidence supporting both perspectives. While some state supreme courts have discretionary dockets allowing judges greater opportunities to exercise their ideology, others lack discretionary docket control, making dockets and outcomes largely litigant driven. Support for each perspective largely hinges on this fundamental feature of institutional design.     

A just soldier's dilemma: facing a war that does not meet jus ad bellum criteria

In our challenging times individuals in military services may find themselves in the position of being called to contribute to a war whose overall justice they personally find morally suspect, or about which they have moral qualms. The right course of action in this situation can be a serious dilemma. Applying the principle of double effect to this dilemma recognizes essential state responsibility for war, but does not discount the soldier's personal moral responsibilities or individual will. This novel application of the principle of double effect treats damage produced by participating in a questionable war as a side-effect of pursuing other—clearly justifiable—intentions. The just war tradition already uses the principle of double effect when weighing the permissibility of individuals' acts in war, such as choosing bombing targets. The proposal here is to evaluate the decision to contribute to the war effort at all. This adaptation of the classic just war principle of double effect can be used to justify some—but not all—individual participation when a war's state-level justification is suspect.     

Validities and abilities in criminal profiling: a critique of the studies conducted by Richard Kocsis and his colleagues

In a recent issue of this journal, Kocsis reviewed the criminal profiling research that he and his colleagues have conducted during the past 4 years. Their research examines the correlates of profile accuracy with respect to the skills of the individual constructing the profile, and it has led Kocsis to draw conclusions that are important to the profiling field. In this article, the authors review the contributions of the Kocsis studies and critique their methodological and conceptual foundations. The authors raise a number of concerns and argue that data from the Kocsis studies fail to support many of the conclusions presented in his recent review. The authors present evidence in support of their assertions and provide recommendations that will allow future research in the area to generate data that are more meaningful and generalizable.     

Gender differences in life-course theory of recidivism: a survival analysis

This study of 300 women and 300 men graduates of a boot camp finds that there are noteworthy gender differences in predictors of tenure in the community without criminal recidivism in a 5-year follow-up. The Cox proportional hazards models show that urban residence, childhood and recent abuses, living with a criminal partner, selling drugs, stress, depression, fearfulness, and suicidal thoughts are stronger positive predictors of recidivism for women than for men. Men are more likely to return to prison because of criminal peer associations, carrying weapons, alcohol abuse, and aggressive feelings. Job satisfaction and education lengthen time in the community more for men than women, whereas the number of children and relationships are more important to tenure in the community for women. The implications for the findings for theory are discussed.     

On the Complexity and Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Strategies

Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.To whom correspondence should be addressed. Phone: +1-709-737-3101; E-mail: bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca     

B. Reviews: bibliographies and works of reference

INDEX DES HITAT: INDEX ANALYTIQUE DES OUVRAGES D'IBN DUQMAQ ET DE MAQRIZI SUR LE CAIRE. Volumes I‐III. By AHMAD ‘ABD AL‐MAJID HARIDI. (Textes arabes et études islamiques, XX.) Cairo, Institut François d'Archéologie Orientale, 1983–84. 3 vols. 463; 221; 389 pp.

WESTERN SAHARA: A COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY. Compiled by LYNN F. SIPE. (Garland Reference Library of Social Science, 178). New York, Garland Publishing, 1984. 418pp. One map (based on United Nations map No.2547/Rev 2).

BAHRAIN. Compiled by P.T.H. UNWIN. (World Bibliographical Series. 49). Oxford & Santa Barbara, Clio Press, 1984. xxxii, 265pp. Map. £33.00.

CATALOGUE COLLECTIF DES OUVRAGES EN LANGUE ARABE ACQUIS PAR LES BIBLIOTHEQUES FRANÇAISES, 1952–1983. Préparé par GEORGES HADDAD et MOHAMMED SAID... München, K.G. Saur, 1984. 4 vols. 2667pp. DM 800.—

ARAB AND ISLAMIC INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION DIRECTORY 1984/85. Edited by UNION OF INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS. (Guides to International Organizations, no.2.) München, K.G. Saur, 1984. 484pp. DM 248,‐.

INTERNATIONAL DIRECTORY OF ISLAMIC CULTURAL INSTITUTIONS. Prepared by ACAR TANLAK and AHMED LAJIMI. Istanbul, Organisation of Islamic Conference, Research Centre for Islamic History, Art and Culture, 1405/1984. (Distributed in the U.K. by Kegan Paul International.) 337pp.

SUFI SYMBOLISM. By JAVAD NURBAKHSH. (Nurbakhsh Encyclopedia of Sufi terminology, vol.I.) London, Khaniqahi‐Nimatullahi Publications, 1984. 228pp. £15.00

IRAN: POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT UNDER THE PAHLAVIS. AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY. By DARIUSH GITISETAN. Metuchen, Scarecrow Press, 1985. xi, 201pp. £15.00.

GUIDE TO REFERENCE BOOKS FOR ISLAMIC STUDIES. By C.L. GEDDES. (Bibliographic Series, No.9.) Denver, American Institute of Islamic Studies, 1985. xiii, 429pp. US $45.00.

MU'JAM AL‐MU'ALLIFIN AL‐SURIYYIN FI AL‐QARN AL‐'ISHRIN. By ‘ABD AL‐ QADIR ‘AYYASH. Damascus, Dar al‐Fikr, 1985. 544pp.

WILLIAM BEDWELL THE ARABIST, 1563–1632. By ALASTAIR HAMILTON. (Publications of the Sir Thomas Browne Institute, Leiden, New series, no.5.) Leiden, E.J. Brill & Leiden University Press, 1985. 163pp. 13 plates. HFI. 46.—

BUCHWESEN IN BOSNIEN UND DER HERZEGOWINA (1800–1878). By JOZO D?AMBO. (Arbeiten und Bibliographien zum Buch‐ und Bibliothekswesen; 2.) Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 1985, 231pp. 2 maps and charts. SFr. 45/US$ 19.55.

MU'JAM AL‐MUSTALAHAT AL‐MASRIFIYYA WA‐MUSTALAHAT AL‐BURSA WA‐L‐TA'MIN WA‐L‐TIJARA AL‐DUWALIYYA. LEXIQUE DES TERMES BANCAIRES: ARABE‐FRANÇAIS‐ANGLAIS. GLOSSARY OF BANKING TERMS: ARABIC‐FRENCH‐ENGLISH. By FARIDI BAZ (Freddie Baz), MAKRAM SADIR (Makram Sader) and JURJ ABI SALIH (Georges Abi Saleh). Beirut, Middle East Media. 1985. (Distributed by MEED Books, London.) 309pp.

CATALOGUE No.555: ORIENTAL MANUSCRIPTS: Offered for sale by E.J.BRILL. Leiden, E.J. Brill, 1986. 161pp. HFI. 15.‐

SHORT GUIDE TO MODERN STAR NAMES AND THEIR DERIVATIONS. By PAUL KUNITZSCH and TIM SMART. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1986. 64pp. DM 39.80.

OSMANLI ?MPARATORLUGU'NDAN GÜNÜMÜZE BELGELERLE MÜZ?K (NOTA) YAYINCILIGI (1876–1986). MUSIC PUBLICATIONS FROM OTTOMAN EMPIRE UP TODAY [sic] (1876–1986). By BÜLENT ALANER. (Belgelerle Türk Müzik Tarihi Dizisi, I.) Ankara, Anadol Yaymcilik, 1986. 99pp. 70 ills. (mostly photo‐reproductions from published sheet music).

THE PALESTINIAN PROBLEM AND UNITED STATES POLICY: A GUIDE TO ISSUES AND REFERENCES. By BRUCE KUNIHOLM and MICHAEL RUBNER. (Guides to contemporary issues, 5). Claremont (USA), Regina Books, 1986. 157pp. £16.50 (hardback); £10.45 (paperback).

ENGLISH‐ARABIC DICTIONARY OF COMPUTER TERMS. By FIRAS H. ALI London, Edward Arnold, 1986. 109pp.

ARABIC COMPUTER DICTIONARY: ENGLISH‐ARABIC, ARABIC‐ENGLISH. Compiled by MULTI‐LINGUAL INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHERS LTD. General Editor ERNEST KAY. London, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1986. 177 + 127 pp. £30.00

AFGHANISTAN: AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE. A GUIDE TO U.S. OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS AND GOVERNMENT‐SPONSORED PUBLICATIONS. By JULIAN W. WITHERELL. (Near Eastern Series, no. 3.) Washington, Library of Congress, 1986. xiii, 158pp. U.S. $5.00.

A GUIDE TO ‘DOCUMENTS FROM THE NEST OF SPIES.’ By GIORGIO VERCELLIN. (Occasional paper, 26.) New York, Afghanistan Forum, 1986. 29pp.