Conspiracy Mongering in Venezuela: The Chavismo Period (1998–2018)

Hugo Chávez's rise to power in 1998 brought many changes to Venezuela's political culture. One transformation not frequently commented on is the constant formulation of conspiracy theories, both by chavismo supporters and by its opponents. This article discusses some of those conspiracy theories, relating to the deceased Venezuelan President's origins, his religious beliefs, the 2002 failed coup d'état, and Chávez's own death. It also addresses more recent conspiracy theories relating to Nicolás Maduro's birth, economic warfare, and drug smuggling operations. Venezuela is currently undergoing a major humanitarian crisis, and this article defends the view that, at least partially, conspiracy mongering has been a factor in Venezuela's collapse. As part of Venezuela's reconstruction, this article recommends that Venezuelan political forces need to reach a consensus and agree not to make ridiculous conspiratorial claims.     

Domestic Contestation and Presidential Prerogative in Colombian Foreign Policy

The study of Colombian foreign policy emphasises external constraints and presidential prerogative in foreign policymaking. Drawing on insights from recent foreign policy analysis literature and evidence from several cases (Plan Colombia, US military bases, free trade talks with China, and ICJ arbitration of a maritime border with Nicaragua), this article challenges commonplace presidentialist assumptions. A novel model of ‘contested presidentialism’ better captures how Colombian domestic actors mobilise to raise political costs to block or modify presidential preferences. When the opposition fails to raise costs, presidentialist assumptions apply. Otherwise, presidents respond strategically by abandoning policies or substituting second-best alternatives.     

法国高等教育战略政策：大学与现实社会的相互作用

报告分析了科学研究的两种模式 ,即纯理论研究模式和应用研究模式 ,认为这两种模式只有在互动的情况下才能长期存在下去。报告还介绍了法国大学的发展史和在不同历史时期的作用 ,其中对不同层次的法国高等教育进行了描述 ,在此基础上报告提出了大学应具有的三方面使命。最后 ,介绍了法国高等师范学校的发展历程和巴黎高师办学的基本情况     

Choose Your Weapon: The Impact of Strategic Considerations and Resource Constraints on Terrorist Group Weapon Selection

ABSTRACT

Historians of terrorism note that modern terrorists rely almost exclusively on two weapon types: the gun and the bomb. However, the comparative use of these weapons differs from one terrorist group to the next. We exploit this variation to examine how the tactical decisions of terrorists respond to both strategic aspirations and resource constraints. We argue that a group’s goals (a strategic consideration) and size (a resource constraint) provide a parsimonious explanation for weapon selection. Because firearms inherently expose the shooter to higher risk, are more precise, and must be used if a group aspires to maintain social order, they are unlikely to be used by groups with limited recruits in a campaign of violence. We test this theory using data on over 350 terrorist organizations. Our analysis shows that strategic considerations and resource constraints both impact tactical choices, although groups with the most expansive goals, those which transcend national borders, as well as militias, are two interesting exceptions to our theory. Our research has implications for the use of disaggregated tactical data and in furthering our understanding of the rationality of terrorism.