Federalism and Party Democracy in West Germany

According to Gerhard Lehmbruch, there is a growing inconsistencyin West Germany between the principles of a federal polity andparty democracy, primarily because the former relies on bargaining,and the latter relies on majority rule as a mechanism of conflictregulation. However, comparative analyses have shown that federalismand party competition are not incompatible. Generally, federalstructures are neither detrimental nor conducive to the recruitmentfunction of parties. Competence and experience as a parliamentaryleader or as a specialist is the most essential preconditionfor advancement to national executive positions. The integrativecapacities of political parties may even be strengthened bythe federal division of power. Only in the area of the formulationand implementation of public policy may an inconsistency betweenthe federal system and party democracy arise because the strainon consensus-building inherent in German cooperative federalismmay, under specific conditions, prevent the national majorityparty from converting its programs into public policy.     

Repression, Opportunity, and Protest: Explaining the Takeoff of Brazil's Landless Movement

During the mid-1990s, Brazil experienced a rapid intensification of protest for land reform. Official land reform efforts also accelerated, and the issue became a central topic of public concern and debate. This article seeks to account for the abrupt intensification of collective action and to explain its relationship to the other changes, focusing on the political impact of two massacres of landless protesters in 1995 and 1996. These incidents forced authorities to accelerate land reform and to exercise somewhat greater caution in repressing the movement. The shifts in state behavior then helped to accelerate collective action. This argument lends weight to the idea that state repression against a social movement can sometimes serve to engender even greater protest. It also identifies a previously undescribed causal mechanism, political opportunity, linking repression to protest.     

How do municipal mayors and councillors communicate with other levels of government? Evidence from a multi-level survey of Canadian elected officials

While past research suggests that informal processes of dialogue play an important role in municipal intergovernmental relations in Canada, we currently know very little about their character and frequency. Who do local elected officials communicate with, and through which channels? And which municipal voices carry the most weight in these conversations? This article answers these questions from the perspective of elected politicians themselves, using a pan-Canadian survey of municipal, provincial, and federal elected representatives. Our findings confirm that municipal intergovernmental relations depend heavily on informal institutions and personal relationships and highlight the key role of municipal mayors as spokespersons and advocates for municipalities in Canadian federalism.     

Globale Besteuerung und Demokratische Legitimität

The democratic state has been offering the conditions for legitimately levying taxes. Tax revenues have been securing the sovereign’s ability to act, policy aims pursued through taxation have been the outcome of a democratic process and the coercion backed institutions levying taxes have enjoyed the status of democratic legitimacy. But a twofold dynamic challenges this status quo. States are under pressure to address problems to which global taxation offers the most promising response. And phenomena like capital mobility impose constraints on the state’s ability to effectively use the policy instrument of taxation. Under what institutional arrangements could taxation be maintained as a justifiable instrument? And what should future institutional arrangements of public finance look like?     

Reexamining the Relationship Between Fiscal Stress and Outsourcing

The determinants of outsourcing in local government are widely studied from a variety of frameworks. One concept consistently used to explain local government outsourcing is fiscal condition, with many noting that outsourcing is more likely when a local government’s fiscal condition declines into fiscal stress. Despite the ubiquity of this expectation in the outsourcing literature, several articles reviewed suggest that the findings for this relationship remain uncertain. As a result, the research presented in this article sought to examine and extend what is known about the relationship between fiscal stress and outsourcing in U.S. municipalities. The research includes previous measures of fiscal stress and adds new measures. In addition, it tries to overcome the limited theoretical testing of the relationship between fiscal stress and outsourcing by examining both direct and indirect effects of fiscal stress on outsourcing. It finds that municipalities in the United States that are experiencing fiscal stress are more likely to engage in outsourcing, particularly municipalities that are experiencing fiscal stress and have a positive evaluation of the external market to provide services.     

Effect of Victimization on Impulse Control and Binge Drinking among Serious Juvenile Offenders from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

A vast literature has found longitudinal effects of early life stress on substance use and self-regulatory processes. These associations may vary by period-specific development among youth involved in the juvenile justice system. The current study used an accelerated longitudinal design and auto-regressive latent trajectory with structure residuals (ALT-SR) model to examine the within-person cross-lagged associations between binge drinking, impulse control, and victimization from 15 to 25 years of age. A large sample (N?=?1100) of justice-involved youth were followed longitudinally for 7 years (M _{age baseline} ?=?15.8, M _{age conclusion} ?=?22.8). In general, the sample was ethnically diverse (41% Black, 34% Hispanic, 21% White, 4.3% Other) and primarily male (87.2%). Participants reported on their frequency of binge drinking, impulse control, and frequency of victimization at each time point. The results indicated that, during adolescence, victimization and binge drinking attenuated impulse control, which resulted in more binge drinking and victimization during young adulthood. The current study highlights the importance of assessing developmental processes and period-specific transitions among at risk youth, especially for youth experiencing early life stress.     

The Death of Freddie Gray and Its Impact on Homicides in Baltimore and Maryland

This study evaluated the impact that Freddie Gray’s death on April, 19, 2015, had on homicides within Baltimore, Prince George’s County, and the rest of Maryland. The numbers of these deaths were compared in the 2 years prior and after his death. The average number of homicide per month in Baltimore and Prince George’s County, but not the rest of Maryland, showed a statistically significant increase in the 2 years after his death, with a sudden spike in homicides in Baltimore immediately following his death. Spatial density (“heat”) maps of homicides showed an increase in clustering of deaths after Freddie Gray’s demise in portions of Baltimore, particularly near his arrest site. Hot spot maps showed a massive expansion of statistically significant clusters of homicides in areas of West and East Baltimore after his death. An emerging hot spot analysis revealed consecutive hot spots in large areas of West Baltimore with new hot spots prominent along the southern edge of this area. A review of the history of Baltimore, as well as discussions with Baltimore homicide detectives, revealed that prior socioeconomic and political trends likely primed Baltimore for the protests and violence that occurred after Freddie Gray’s death. It is probable that a perceived “overcharging” of officers involved in his death by the State’s Attorney resulted in a “pullback” from policing that directly led to increased homicides in Baltimore.     

Blast Suppression Foam,Aqueous Gel Blocks,and their Effect on Subsequent Analysis of Forensic Evidence*

In addition to having blast mitigation properties, aqueous foam concentrate AFC-380 blast suppression foam is designed to capture aerosolized chemical, biological, and radioactive particles during render-safe procedures of explosive devices. Exposure to aqueous environments and surfactants may negatively affect forensic evidence found at the scene, but the effects of AFC-380 foam and aqueous gel on the preservation and subsequent analysis of forensic evidence have not previously been investigated. Sebaceous finger and palm prints and DNA samples on paper, cardboard, tape, and various metal and plastic items, along with hairs, carpet and yarn fibers, and inks and documents, were exposed to AFC-380 foam. Similar mock evidence was also exposed to a superabsorbent gel of the type found in aqueous gel blocks used for shrapnel containment. Exposure to foam or aqueous gel was associated with a dilution effect for recovered DNA samples, but quality of the samples was not substantially affected. In contrast, exposure to AFC-380 foam or gel was detrimental to development of latent finger and palm prints on any substrate. Neither the hair nor the fiber samples were affected by exposure to either the foam or gel. Indented writing on the document samples was detrimentally affected by foam or gel exposure, but not inks and toners. The results from this study indicate that most types of forensic evidence recovered after being exposed to aqueous gel or blast suppression foam can be reliably analyzed, but latent finger and palm prints may be adversely affected.     

Quality of Laypersons' Assessment of Forensically Relevant Stimuli,

The current study examined the potential for cognitive bias in lay examiners' comparisons of footwear impressions within the technical review process while addressing limitations of previous research. Prior research has found inconsistent results regarding the extent to which cognitive bias may influence forensic comparisons, often asking non-experts to review forensic stimuli above their competency level. Furthermore, past research has largely ignored the potential for cognitive bias during the technical review process. In collaboration with the Miami-Dade Police Department's Forensic Services Bureau, we examined the effects of previous examiners' level of experience and prior knowledge of the previous examiner's decision on the technical review stage of footwear impression stimuli. Before lay examiners were presented with pairs of known match and nonmatch footwear impressions, they were either told that an expert or a novice had previously examined them and determined them to be either a match, nonmatch, or inconclusive (plus a no-information condition). Participants then evaluated each pair of footwear impressions to make their own determinations of match, nonmatch, or inconclusive. Results support the technical review process for all decision types, as known nonmatch stimuli were generally more difficult for lay examiners to assess than known match stimuli. Knowledge of a prior examiner's decision and status was observed only when the prior decision was inconclusive, suggesting the need for inclusion of inconclusive decisions in future research examining cognitive bias in forensic examination.     

All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling

Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record, and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does the same. In two different experimental studies—one focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion. Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible impact of polls on political decision making.