Choose Your Weapon: The Impact of Strategic Considerations and Resource Constraints on Terrorist Group Weapon Selection

ABSTRACT

Historians of terrorism note that modern terrorists rely almost exclusively on two weapon types: the gun and the bomb. However, the comparative use of these weapons differs from one terrorist group to the next. We exploit this variation to examine how the tactical decisions of terrorists respond to both strategic aspirations and resource constraints. We argue that a group’s goals (a strategic consideration) and size (a resource constraint) provide a parsimonious explanation for weapon selection. Because firearms inherently expose the shooter to higher risk, are more precise, and must be used if a group aspires to maintain social order, they are unlikely to be used by groups with limited recruits in a campaign of violence. We test this theory using data on over 350 terrorist organizations. Our analysis shows that strategic considerations and resource constraints both impact tactical choices, although groups with the most expansive goals, those which transcend national borders, as well as militias, are two interesting exceptions to our theory. Our research has implications for the use of disaggregated tactical data and in furthering our understanding of the rationality of terrorism.     

Can Personality Traits Predict Depression during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Social Justice Research - The emotional costs of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns among clinicians and scholars. The goal of the current study was to test whether or not neuroticism,...     

Rough-and-Tumble Play and the Development of Physical Aggression and Emotion Regulation: A Five-Year Follow-Up Study

This is a follow-up to a study demonstrating that rough-and-tumble play was related to physical aggression in the preschool years. Fathers reported on the frequency of father-child rough-and-tumble play interactions, and the degree to which fathers were dominant in the play dyad was observed and coded from play interactions. In this follow-up study, school-aged children’s physically aggressive behaviors and emotion regulation abilities were assessed with questionnaires 5 years later. Higher frequencies of father-child rough-and-tumble play in the preschool years were associated with more physical aggression and worse emotion regulation 5 years later for children whose fathers were less dominant, over and above the effects of physical aggression in the preschool years. Rough-and-tumble play was unrelated to these measures among children whose fathers were more dominant during play. This study shows that early rough-and-tumble play continues to be related to children’s psychosocial adjustment over time, and that the effect remains moderated by the quality of the father-child relationship during play.     

A Morphological and Morphometric Study of Bite Marks Caused by Mice (Mus Musculus) on Different Baits for Forensic Purposes

In animal bites, the dental attributes can be fundamental in identifying the marks made by various species on different matrices. Although rodent bite marks have been studied in the context of postmortem interference, little research has used different baits to analyze these marks linking not only specific behavior patterns but also the possibility of structural damage. Twenty mice (Mus musculus) were exposed to different baits to study their bite marks in a controlled model. The known pattern of parallel and multiple grooves has been seen in all baits, but polyvinyl chloride and fiber‐optic cable were significantly different between each other and the other baits. Some baits showed patterns of anchorage of the upper incisors and space between the lower incisors when gnawing. This technical note represents a novel model of analysis where veterinarians and/or dentists may be asked to give an opinion on alleged animal bite marks.     

Pathologic features of suicidal deaths caused by explosives

Suicidal explosions that lack a terrorist background are only rarely encountered in the field of forensic pathology. The investigation of explosion-related fatalities can be a substantial challenge in medicolegal casework. Determining whether the manner of death is suicide, homicide, or accident in such cases can present an especially difficult task to the forensic pathologist. This study considers the pathologic features of suicidal deaths caused by explosives without a terrorist background. The modus operandi of the decedents reflected familiarity and proficiency, or at least a degree of specialized knowledge, with the construction and use of explosive devices. All explosions were set off in confined spaces. The injury patterns consisted of a combination of primary blast injuries (e.g. decapitation, traumatic amputation of limbs, gross lacerations of the body surface, blast injuries of gas-containing and hollow organs), secondary blast injuries (e.g. splinter-induced penetrating trauma), tertiary blast injuries (e.g. abrasions and contusions), and burn injuries (mostly of the flash type). The previously described symmetric distribution pattern of injuries in suicidal explosions was apparent only to a certain degree in the present series. Our observation of superficially sharp-edged wound margins with bridging in the depths of the lesion in blast-induced lacerations of the skin should deserve further attention in forthcoming cases of explosion-related fatalities because this finding is a diagnostic possibility that may support the theory of an explosion-related fatality under special circumstances, e.g. when the body has been dumped away from the place of death. Because a terrorist attack may be initially suspected in each case of suicide involving explosives, the importance of a joint inquiry based on expertise from police investigators, bomb experts, and forensic pathologists is evident.     

Improved MtDNA sequence analysis of forensic remains using a "mini-primer set" amplification strategy

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) analysis of highly degraded skeletal remains is often used for forensic identification due largely to the high genome copy number per cell. Literature from the "ancient DNA" field has shown that highly degraded samples contain populations of intact DNA molecules that are severely restricted in size (1-4). Hand et al. have demonstrated the targeting and preferential amplification of authentic human DNA sequences with small amplicon products of 150 bp or less (1,2). Given this understanding of ancient DNA preservation and amplification, we report an improved approach to forensic mtDNA analysis of hypervariable regions 1 and 2 (HV1/HV2) in highly degraded specimens. This "mini-primer set" (MPS) amplification strategy consists of four overlapping products that span each of the HV regions and range from 126 to 170 bp, with an average size of 141 bp. For this study, 11 extracts representing a range of sample quality were prepared from nonprobative forensic specimens. We demonstrate a significant increase in MPS amplification success when compared to testing methods using approximately 250 bp amplicons. Further, 16 of 17 independent amplifications previously "unreported" due to mixed sequences provided potentially reportable sequence data from a single, authentic template with MPS testing.     

Plus ça change: Electoral law reform and the 2008 Romanian parliamentary elections

Romania reformed the law governing its parliamentary elections between 2004 and 2008, shifting from a complex proportional representation system based on county-level party lists to a complex uninominal system in which each district for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate elects one representative. The change in law emerged after more than a year of heated political controversies, including partisan and personal animosity between President Basescu and Prime Minister Tariceanu, a failed attempt at impeachment, a deadlocked special electoral commission, a failed popular referendum, an unfavorable constitutional court ruling, and a confusing final accord brokered under deadline. Qualitative comparison of the 2004 and 2008 laws reveals that the heralded reform merely added an additional layer of calculation to the previous electoral system. Quantitative analysis using counterfactual estimation reveals that the new law had absolutely zero effect on the partisan outcome. In the conclusion, we explore the implications of these findings for Romanian politics and the politics of electoral reform more generally.