Past is still present: Micro-level comparisons of conventional vs. transitional economic voting in three Polish elections

Using survey data from three Polish parliamentary elections, we provide the first systematic micro-level test contrasting a standard incumbency-based model of economic voting with a transitional economic voting model in the post-communist context. To do so, we introduce a novel temporal component to micro-level studies of economic voting that supplements standard short-term retrospective economic evaluations (e.g., “do you feel the economy has improved in the past 12 months?”) with longer “transitional” retrospective economic evaluations (e.g., “do you feel the economy has improved since the collapse of communism?”). Our analyses reveal a nuanced picture suggesting multiple paths for economic influences on voting in Poland. We find evidence consistent with the standard incumbency-based approach, but only for the specific set of evaluations to which the theory is most appropriately applied: short-term retrospective economic evaluations and the vote for incumbent parties. By contrast, the transitional model is strongly supported by evidence that evaluations of changes in economic conditions since the collapse of communism (“long-term economic evaluations”) have an effect on the vote for a range of parties. We demonstrate as well that these results are robust to model specification and generational effects.     

Changes in Candidate Evaluations over the Campaign Season: A Comparison of House,Senate, and Presidential Races

Political Behavior - How do citizens’ preferences for candidates change during a campaign season? For the first time, this panel study examines how citizens’ preferences for candidates...     

Evaluation of Internal Standards for the Analysis of Ignitable Liquids in Fire Debris

Abstract:  An evaluation of eight compounds for use as an internal standard in fire debris analysis was conducted. Tests were conducted on tetrachloroethylene, chlorobenzene, n-octylbenzene, 3-phenyltolune, and deuterated compounds toluene-d8, styrene-d8, naphthalene-d8, and diphenyl-d10 to measure the extraction efficiency of each compound in the presence of an interfering volatile compound (carbon disulfide). Other tests were conducted to evaluate whether or not the presence of an ignitable liquid or pyrolysis/combustion products from fire debris would interfere with the identification of these compounds when used as an internal standard. The results showed that while any of the eight compounds could be used as an internal standard in fire debris analysis, the more volatile compounds (toluene-d8, tetrachloroethylene, chlorobenzene, and styrene-d8) showed better extraction efficiencies at room temperature than when heated to 60°C. Each of the less volatile compounds (naphthalene-d8, diphenyl-d10, n-octylbenzene, and 3-phenyltolune) performed well during extraction at 60°C, while naphthalene-d8 showed better extraction efficiency in the presence of competing volatiles when extracted at room temperature.     

Hypothermia-related Deaths: A 10-year Retrospective Study of Two Major Metropolitan Cities in the United States*

Hypothermia-related deaths affect vulnerable populations and are preventable. They account for the vast majority of weather-related deaths in the United States. The postmortem diagnosis of hypothermia can be challenging, as there are no pathognomonic signs. The electronic databases of the New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner and Harris County Institute of Forensic Sciences were searched for all fatalities where the primary cause of death included hypothermia, between January 2009 and July 2019. There were 139 hypothermia deaths in New York City (NYC) with an average annualized rate of 1.7 per million. During this same time, there were 50 hypothermia deaths in Houston with an average annualized rate of 2.4 per million. Males were more likely to die of hypothermia compared to females in both cities. The rate ratio (RR) in NYC was 3.55 (95% CI 2.40, 5.25), while the RR in Houston was 2.83 (95% CI 1.50, 5.32). Age- and sex-specific standardized hypothermia mortality rates were 18.2 (95% CI 15.1, 21.2) per million in NYC and 30.1 (95% CI 21.7, 38.6) per million in Houston. The comparative hypothermia death ratio was 1.66 (95% CI 1.19, 2.30), indicating hypothermia mortality in Houston was 66% higher than in NYC. There was no correlation between zip code poverty rates and hypothermia-related deaths. The most consistent autopsy finding was Wischnewski spots (56.6%), and ethanol was the most common toxicological finding (36.5%). Local agencies can use this data to target these higher-risk populations and offer appropriate interventions to try to prevent these deaths.     

Older Romantic Partners and Depressive Symptoms During Adolescence

Although developmental theory predicts that adolescent romantic relationships have important benefits, empirical evidence suggests that they may also carry substantial psychosocial risk. This study uses data from 4,948 respondents (50% female) in Wave I and Wave II of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the association between involvement with an older romantic partner and depressive symptoms during adolescence. Ordinary least squares regression models compared Wave II depressive symptoms among respondents with older partners (defined as an age difference of 2 or more years) to respondents with same-age or younger partners, controlling for baseline depressive symptoms and sociodemographic characteristics. Ten percent of females and two percent of males reported having an older romantic partner at Wave II. Among females only, involvement with an older romantic partner was associated with a modest but significant increase in depressive symptoms between waves. This association was largely mediated by increases in substance use. Findings suggest that involvement with an older male partner during adolescence may increase the risk of poor emotional outcomes among females.     

Antecedents and Consequences of Psychiatric Disorders in African-American Adolescents

This study included three waves of data, collected from approximately 890 African-American children and their families. Antecedents and consequences of psychiatric disorders among this population were examined. Children’s temperament, pubertal timing, and experience of stressful life events were tested as antecedents of psychiatric disorders. Several aspects of school functioning were then tested as consequences of psychiatric disorders. In addition, children with a single psychiatric disorder and those with comorbid disorders were statistically compared. Results showed that (1) children with at least one disorder, compared to those with no disorder, exhibited significantly more difficult temperament, experienced puberty earlier, and underwent greater numbers of stressful life events; (2) those with at least one disorder had significantly poorer school outcomes than those with no disorder; (3) children with comorbid disorders, compared with those who had only one disorder, displayed lower educational aspirations and poorer school commitment.

Deliberative Innovation to Different Effect: Consensus Conferences in Denmark, France, and the United States

Democratic reformers are attracted by the role that advisory forums composed of lay citizens can play in public consultation on complex policy issues (such as participatory technology assessment). Using a comparative study of consensus conferences on the issue of genetically modified food in Denmark, France, and the United States, the authors show that the potential of such deliberative "mini-publics" is quite different in different sorts of political system. They attend to the mode of establishment, perceived legitimacy, policy impact, and influence on public debate of the forum in each case. In actively inclusive Denmark,mini-publics are deployed in integrative fashion; in exclusive France, in managerial fashion; and in the passively inclusive United States, in advocacy fashion. Proponents and practitioners of deliberative participatory reforms should take into account the constraints and opportunities revealed by this analysis and attend to the different roles that mini-publics might play in different political systems.