Candidate uncertainty, mental models, and complexity: Some experimental results

Since the work of Downs (1957), spatial models of elections have been a mainstay of research in political science and public choice. Despite the plethora of theoretical and empirical research involving spatial models, researchers have not considered in great detail the complexity of the decision task that a candidate confronts. Two facets of a candidate’s decision process are investigated here, using a set of laboratory experiments where subjects face a fixed incumbent in a two-dimensional policy space. First, we analyze the effect that the complexity of the electoral landscape has on the ability of the subject to defeat the incumbent. Second, we analyze the impact that a subject’s “mental model” (which we infer from a pre-experiment questionnaire) has on her performance. The experimental results suggest that the complexity of a candidate’s decision task and her perception of the task may be important factors in electoral competition.     

Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered

The debate on the relationship between institutions and economic development is discussed, focusing on two illustrations, i.e., the impact of democracy and political instability on economic growth. Various pitfalls of existing research are identified, like sensitivity of the outcomes to model specification, sample heterogeneity, measurement of political variables, and the treatment of the time dimension.     

Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis

Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national‐level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and analysis of the trends in four high coca‐producing and four violent Colombian departments, along with a department‐level fixed effects model. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the department‐level analysis suggests that coca production is not the driving force of contemporary Colombian guerrilla violence. Instead, economic factors and coca eradication emerge as prominent explanatory factors.     

Further evidence on the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth

Much of the literature on the power of elected officials and bureaucratic agencies argues, from an empirical perspective, that bureaus appears to exercise autonomy. In this paper, a theoretical model sets out the conditions under which the Congress, the President, and one agency (we use the U.S. Federal Reserve as an extended example) can dictate policy outcomes. The results of the paper include the “Congressional Dominance” theorem: If more than 2/3 of House members, and more than 2/3 of Senate members, agree on something, they get it. The theorem is obvious (the “proof” is in the U.S. Constitution), but often forgotten in the substantive literature. More realistic results are derived for situations where the preferences of members of Congress are more diverse. Powers of the President to influence policy with, and without, appointments are also analyzed.     

The “growth tax” in the United States

By providing public goods, including law and order, national defense, and income redistribution that expands the gains from exchange (the scope and membership of the constitutional agreement), government expenditures act as a positive externality on the growth rate. Beyond that level, taxes act as a negative externality. In this paper a simple model is formulated and the optimal (growth-maximizing) tax rate found. Empirical estimation finds it to be in the range of 21.5–22.9 percent. The effect of taxation beyond this level is a cumulative loss of about $30 trillion (1972 dollars) in GNP over the period 1949–89.     

The paradox of deinstitutionalization

Previously he taught at Clark University. He has received grants from the National Endowment for Humanities and the National Institutes of Health. Among his writings are Workers and Utopia, The State and the Mentally Ill, Mental Institutions in America, Mental Illness and American Society, From Asylum to Community,and The Mad Among Us.     

Congressional tenure: Myth and reality

Congressional tenure is longer now than in earlier times, but it is largely a myth that the era of the professional politician is a modern phenomenon. Here, tenure is compared between the 57th and 86th Congresses. Tenure is linked to a simple median voter model. Increased tenure is associated with an increased ability to transfer government expenditures to the political unit. The increased size of government at the time of the 86th Congress compared to the 57th Congress, largely explains the greater length of time in office. The higher tenure of southern legislators is linked to lower per capita incomes.     

Review

Nuclear Power in the Developing World by Daniel Poneman George Allen and Unwin, London, 1982. 254 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. £14,95.

Employment Policy in Developing Countries: A Survey of Issues and Evidence by Lyn Squire Oxford University Press, New York, 1981. xiii plus 229 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. R.16,95 paperback.

Migration Decision‐Making: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Micro‐Level Studies in Developed and Developing Countries edited by Gordon F. de Jong and Robert W. Gardner Pergamon Press, New York, and Oxford, 1981. xii plus 394 pp. including tables, figures, bibliography and index. R.73,85.

Cities, Poverty and Development: Urbanization in the Third World by Alan Gilbert and Josef Gugler Oxford University Press, London, 1984. viii plus 246 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. R.23,95 paperback.

Urban Dynamics in Black Africa: An Interdisciplinary Approach by William J. Hanna and Judith L. Hanna Aldine Publishing Co., New York, 1981. viii plus 260 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, bibliography and index. $19,95.

No Shortcuts to Progress: African Development Management in Perspective by Goran Hyden Heinemann, London, 1983. xv plus 223 pp. including tables, figures, notes and index. £4,95 paperback.

African Philosophy: Myth and Reality by Paulin J. Hountondji Hutchinson, London, 1983. 221 pp. including notes, references and index. R.32,75 paperback.

The African City by Anthony O'Connor Hutchinson, London, 1983. 359 pp. including figures, tables, diagrams, bibliography and index. $27,50. $17,50 paperback.

A History of Nigeria by Elizabeth Isichei Longman, London, 1983. xix plus 517 pp. including illustrations, maps, tables, figures, appendix, bibliography and index. £19,95. £7,95 paperback.

Politics and Class Formation in Uganda by Mahmood Mamdani Heinemann, London, 1976. viii plus 339 pp. including notes, tables, bibliography and index. £2,90 paperback.

Maternal and Child Health in Rural Kenya: An Epidemiological Study edited by J.K. van Ginneken and A.S. Muller Croom Helm, London, 1984. 383 pp. including illustrations, tables, references and index. £15,95.

The Road to Zimbabwe: 1890–1980 by Anthony Verrier Jonathan Cape, London, 1986. 364 pp. including map, notes and index. £16,00.

A Peace in Southern Africa: The Lancaster House Conference on Rhodesia, 1979 by Jeffrey Davidow Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1984. 143 pp. including notes, bibliography and index. $22,00.

Botswana's Economy since Independence edited by M.A. Oommen, F.K. Inganji and L.D. Ngcongco Tata McGraw‐Hill Publishing Co., New Delhi, 1983. xx plus 321 pp. including tables, bibliography and index. No price available.

Kings, Commoners and Concessionaires: The Evolution and Dissolution of the Nineteenth‐Century Swazi State by Philip Bonner Cambridge University Press, and Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1983. viii plus 315 pp. including maps, figures, notes, appendix, bibliography and index. R15,95 paperback.

The Diplomacy of Isolation: South Africa's Foreign Policy‐Making by Deon Geldenhuys Macmillan, Johannesburg, 1984. iii plus 295 pp. including notes and index. Ri 30,00.

Studies on Urbanization in South Africa edited by E.A. Kraayenbrink South African Institute of Race Relations, Johannesburg, 1984. vi plus g6 pp. including tables and notes. R5,95 paperback.

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Goldfields, 1902–1939 by David Yudelman Greenwood Press, Westport (Connecticut) and London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1983. xvi plus 315 pp. including figures, tables, bibliography and index. R46,50.

South Africa at War: White Power and the Crisis in Southern Africa by Richard Leonard Lawrence Hill and Co., Westport (Connecticut), 1983. x plus 280 pp. including notes, appendices and index. R3i,35 paperback.

Rural Development in South Africa: A Case Study of the Amatola Basin in the Ciskei edited by Chris de Wet and Simon Bekker Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, 1985. xiv plus 165 pp. including tables, figures, maps, bibliography and index. R25,00 paperback.

Call Me Not A Man by Mtutuzeli Matshoba Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1979. x plus 198 pp. R4,95 paperback.

Anthem of the Decades: A Zulu Epic by Mazisi Kunene Heinemann, London, 1981. xi plus 312 pp. £3,50 paperback.     

Development of an objective measure to assess ego identity in adolescence: Validation and replication

Three studies that evaluate the reliability and validity of the Extended Version of the Objective Measure of Ego Identity Status (Adams and Grotevant, 1983) are reported. In Studies 1 and 2, college students in Texas and Utah, respectively, completed the identity measure, the Extended Range Vocabulary Test, and the Crowne-Marlowe Social Desirability Scale and released achievement results from their college records. The identity measure was found to have acceptable reliability (both internal consistency and test-retest) and validity (content, factorial, discriminant, and concurrent). In Study 3, scale scores from the objective identity measure correlated in the predicted pattern with ratings of identity exploration and commitment made from the Ego Identity Interview. Although the objective measure is not intended to replace the interview, it would appear to be useful in a number of situations where administration of the interview is impractical.We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Dan Tousley in the data collection and data analysis phases of this research. Data collection and analyses for Study 3 were provided by grants from the Hogg Foundation for Mental Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the University of Texas Research Institute, and the University of Texas Institute of Human Development and Family Studies to Harold D. Grotevant and Catherine Cooper, Co-Principal Investigators.Study 2 was supported by the W144 regional research grant on The Development of Social Competency in Children with funding from the United States Department of Agriculture and the Utah State University Agricultural Experiment Station, directed by Gerald Adams.Received Ph.D. in child psychology from the University of Minnesota. Research interests concern the contribution of family relationships to personality and identity development in adolescence.Received Ph.D. from The Pennsylvania State University. Research interests include adolescent social and personality development.     

Familial correlates of identity formation in late adolescence: A study of the predictive utility of connectedness and individuality in family relations

Past investigations have documented that late adolescence is associated with developmental changes in identity formation resulting in individual differences in identity statuses. Particular attention has been given to the identification and study of diffusion, foreclosure, moratorium, and identity achievement statuses. Drawing from the recent theoretical speculations by Cooper and Grotevant, an investigation was completed to assess the predictive utility of measures of family connectedness and individuality in differentiating among the four identity statuses. Data were obtained from male and female late adolescents and their mothers and fathers on perceptions of independence (individuality), communication, and emotional affection (connectedness). Differences among adolescents grouped into the four identity formation statuses were assessed using analysis of variance techniques comparing gender and identity status on measures of connectedness and individuality within a parent-adolescent relationship. Evidence consistent with the notion that a combination of emotional attachment to parents and the encouragement of independence striving by parents is associated with healthy identity development emerges from our data.This research was funded in part by the W144 Western Regional Research Project, Development of Social Competency in Children, with funding provided by the Science and Education Administration/Cooperative Research of the USDA and the Utah State Agricultural Experiment Station, Logan.Completed his doctoral work at Utah State University under the direction of the second and third authors. Interested in counseling and clinical psychology, therapy, and adolescent/child psychology.Interested in personality and social development during childhood and adolescence.Interested in clinical and counseling psychology, therapy, and psychological adjustment.