On the consequences of ignoring genetic influences in criminological research

Purpose

Many criminological scholars explore the social causes of crime while giving little consideration to the possibility that genetic factors underlie the observed associations. Indeed, the standard social science method (SSSM) assumes genetic influences do not confound the association between X and Y. Yet, a nascent stream of evidence has questioned the validity of this approach by revealing many criminological variables are at least partially affected by genetic influences. As a result, a substantial proportion of the literature may be misspecified due to uncontrolled genetic factors. No effort has been made to directly estimate the extent to which genetic confounding has biased the associations presented in criminological studies.

Methods

The present study seeks to address this issue by drawing on simulated datasets.

Results/Conclusions

Results suggest genetic confounding may account for a negligible portion of the relationship between X and Y when their correlation (r_yx) is larger than the correlation between genetic factors and Y (i.e., r_yx > r_yg). Genetic confounding appears to be much more problematic when the correlation between X and Y is in the moderate-to-small range (e.g., r_yx = .20) and the genetic effect is in the moderate-to-large range (e.g., r_yg ≥ .30).     

Poles' evaluation of the benefits of the Polish economic transformation: A rectification of the misleading of Jeffrey Sachs

In his protracted dispute with Jan Adam over the early benefits of the Polish ‘shock therapy’ approach to economic reform, a key, and still intact, component of Jeffrey Sachs' case has been a relatively favourable 1991 opinion poll about Poles' perceptions of the benefits of economic reform. This reported that a substantial majority of Poles felt their standard of living had improved as a result of the first two years of economic reform. This was an apparently powerful argument in favour of Poland's particular shock therapy approach to economic reform, as residents of other East European countries, some subject to more gradualist reforms, responded much less positively to the identical question put as part of the same research programme. However, the cited result should be seen as posing a mystery that is at odds with other monthly polls in Poland and seems incompatible with the results of the 1991 Polish Parliamentary elections, which showed a return of support to post-communist parties. A deeper analysis of opinion polls which follows solves the mystery, when it is shown how the cited result was in error and was published in a form diametrically opposite to the true result.     

Is the U.S. Supreme Court's Legitimacy Grounded in Performance Satisfaction and Ideology?

Bartels and Johnston have recently presented evidence suggesting that the legitimacy of the U.S. Supreme Court is grounded in the ideological preferences and perceptions of the American people. In addition, they offer experimental data purporting to show that dissatisfaction with a single Court decision substantially diminishes the institution's legitimacy. These findings strongly break with earlier research on the Court's institutional support, as the authors recognize. The theoretical implications of their findings are profound. If the authors are correct that legitimacy is strongly dependent upon satisfying the policy preferences and ideological predilections of the American people, the essence of legitimacy is fundamentally transformed. Consequently, we reinvestigate the relationships among ideology, performance satisfaction, and Court legitimacy, unearthing empirical findings that diverge markedly from theirs. We conclude with some thoughts about how the Court's “countermajoritarian dilemma” can be reconceptualized and recalculated, once more drawing conclusions sharply at odds with those of Bartels and Johnston.     

The Pitfalls of South Africa's "Liberation"

In recent years, the figurative face of politics in America often quite literally has become the face of a celebrity. This trend finds citizens in democratic society willing to yield up their political consciousness to media-created celebrities. Drawing on the theories of Michel Foucault and Jean Baudrillard, this article argues that the investiture of authority in celebrities represents a continuation of the trend by which social bodies operate as the site where relations of power are played out, and by which the media serve as a means in which real democracy has been replaced by a simulated one. Alongside grassroots participation, and in some cases leading it, society is incorporating a new language that deploys celebrities as chief vehicles for the simulation of political consent, thereby overcoming public apathy, and buttressing the existing political order.     

Time to vote?

Despite the centrality of voting costs to the paradox of voting, little effort has been made to measure these costs accurately, outside of a few spatially limited case studies. In this paper, we apply Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools to validated national election survey data from New Zealand. We calculate distance and travel time by road from the place of residence to the nearest polling place and combine our time estimate with imputed wages for all sample members. Using this new measure of the opportunity cost of voting to predict turnout at the individual level, we find that small increases in the opportunity costs of time can have large effects in reducing voter turnout.     

Decentralized governance and environmental change: Local institutional moderation of deforestation in Bolivia

Dozens of countries have decentralized at least part of their natural resource policies over the last two decades. Despite the length of time that these policy experiments have been in force, there is little agreement about their effectiveness. We argue that part of this ambivalence stems from three limitations of extant studies, suggesting that future studies of decentralized natural resource governance should consider a combination of 1) variation in the local institutional context, 2) the fit between the reform and other public policies, and 3) more adequate outcome measures for decentralized resource governance. After developing such an approach, we posit that varying forest conditions depend on the moderating effects that local institutions have on the socioeconomic and biophysical drivers of environmental change. Analyzing data from interviews and remotely sensed images from 30 municipalities in the Bolivian lowlands, we find that the local institutional performance affects unauthorized deforestation directly and indirectly, but detect no effects on either permitted or total deforestation. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.