Counter‐terrorism and commercial interests: Do they conflict?

This paper concentrates on whether there is an inherent conflict between commercial interests and the fight against state‐sponsored terrorism.¹ It examines the differences between US and EU policy, particularly in relation to Iran; the roles of Russia and China and the wider impact of international responses. The author concludes that symbolic sanctions and sporadic dialogue are completely inadequate instruments, but that genuine international sanctions and critical dialogue should not be viewed as mutually exclusive policy instruments.     

The robustness of the optimal weighted majority rule to probability distortion

This study identifies the optimal collective decision rule in a dichotomous symmetric setting, allowing for probabilities distortion as originally assumed by Tversky and Kahneman (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5(4):297–323, 1992). We show that previous results that identified the weighted majority rule as the optimal one, and did not consider subjective probabilities, are robust to such distortion in the sense that neither the rule nor the weights are changed.     

Group specific public goods, orchestration of interest groups with free riding

We consider a situation in which two groups contest group-specific public goods. Each member of the group may have a different valuation of the prize. Our model can be interpreted as the contestants’ cost of lobbying efforts being non-linear, or the returns to their efforts being decreasing. We show that the level of free-riding depends on the return of the investment. We consider the situation under which one group initiates a contest to which different individuals and/or groups can be added. The question we pose is what is the optimal structure of additional groups?     

Performance and prize decomposition in contests

This paper focuses on the effect of additive contest decomposition on performance: winning probabilities and efforts of the contestants. Our main result provides a sufficient condition for invariance of contest performance to the decomposition of a contest, when the sum of the possibly differently valued prizes in the segmented contests is equal to the value of the prize in the original grand contest and the relative prizes in the sub-contests are equal for every contestant. It is shown that this condition is satisfied by the commonly used exponential logistic contest success functions. With these functions the contest designer does not have an incentive to split the prize and create additive, segmented sub-contests. We then prove that when the additive contest decomposition is asymmetric, contest decomposition may adversely affect the designer; that it, reduce the total efforts of the contestants.     

An approach to evaluating adolescent adaptive processes: Validity of an interview-based measure

The authors present an initial exploration, of the validity of 15 scales designed to assess adaptive ego processes in adolescence. These scales are rated solelyThis study was supported by the Youth Development Project of the Joslin DRTC (NIH AM 20530-01), grants from the Psychoanalytic Research Fund of the American Psychoanalytic Association, the Spencer Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Harris Trust, National Instutute of Mental Health, a Research Scientist Award (K-05-MH-70178) (Dr. Hauser), the Maternal and Child Health Research Grants Program, and a Faculty Scholar Award of the William T. Grant Foundation (Dr. Beardslee).Clinical director, Department of Psychiatry, The Children's Hospital; and assistnt professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from Case-Western Reserve University. Currently studying adaptation and intervention with youngsters at high risk for psychopathology.Chief of psychiatry, Joslin Diabetes Center; and associate professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Currently studying psychosocial consequences of diabetes mellitus.Associate professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from Yale University and Ph.D. from Harvard University (psychology). Currently studying family contexts of adolescent development and outcomes in diabetic adolescents.Director of evaluation research, The Children's Unit of McLean Hospital. Received Dipl. Psych. from Freie Universitat, Berlin (clinical psychology); Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying relationships between psychopathology and development among adolescent psychiatric patients.Research associate, Henry A. Murray Research Center of Radcliffe Colleges; and instructor of psychology, Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying adolescent and family coping processes in response to stressful events.Currentlyand tudying research methodology and statistics.M.S.W., Smith College School of Social Work. Currently attending Dartmouth Medical School.     

The 1962 Cuban intelligence estimate: A methodological perspective

The performance of American intelligence in the 1962 Cuban crisis was measured inadequately. An account of its failures suggests that the roots of poor performance, and of SNIE 85–3–62 in particular, were in a flawed methodological approach. Problems in four aspects of the intelligence methodology are identified: in the use of comparative logic; in the use of evidence for theory validation; in the formulation of research questions; and in the development and review of assumptions. Finally, the methodological discussion yields lessons concerning the analysis of intelligence performance and makes suggestions for improvement of the intelligence assessment process.     

Safe at home? Policing the U.S. hometown in a post 9/11 environment

Despite the prominence of terrorism concerns on the national agenda, three areas of public policy pose more significant challenges for local law enforcement in the United States: illegal gun proliferation and distribution; offender incarceration and re-entry paths; and investments in the lives of children. This paper argues that the current direction of public policy in these latter areas should be a primary concern, because these policies not only impact law enforcement in a negative way, but also threaten the strength and vitality of the communities law enforcement is trying to serve. Moreover, the dangers posed by these policies are far more calculable, more likely and more destructive over the long run than those posited for more extreme, though less-likely threats, to which the U.S., as a nation, is committing enormous sums of money, for seemingly incremental, public safety benefits. The role of law enforcement executives is critical to how these issues will be addressed.