Anatomy of a government massacre: Abuses of hostage‐barricade protocols during the Waco standoff

A systematic evaluation of the FBI's crisis negotiations with the Branch Davidians during a 51‐day standoff in 1993 is conducted. The analysis uncovers extensive violations of basic hostage‐barricade standards and protocols. The violations appear shortly after negotiations began indicating a premature disregard for the publicly declared goal of a peaceful resolution. Failed negotiations subsequently were cited by FBI officials as a rationale for organizing a violent and dangerous CS gas assault on the barricaded group, resulting in the destruction of the religious community and the deaths of 74 people. The violations do not appear to be random, incidental, or the result of disorganization, as officials claim. The data indicate that the FBI's on‐scene commanders and tactical component of the Hostage‐Rescue Team (HRT) contributed largely to the failed negotiations through methods of increased tactical pressure and psychological warfare providing justification for the high‐risk assault. The thesis is advanced that the HRT command may have pursued furtively what some insiders call a ‘Western’ view of hostage‐barricade incidents ‐ i.e., that negotiations should be used as a means of manipulating people into positions where a tactical solution can be executed. In this context, the standoff is analyzed as a government massacre. Possible motives for this state violence are linked to the sect's defiant posture, aspects of police culture, effective demonization of the sect, and the disturbing trend of ‘militarization’ within law enforcement.     

Uncertainty and disaster‐avoidance behaviour in peasant farming: Evidence from Bangladesh

A sample of smallholding farmers in the Pabna region of Bangladesh provide data to test predictions of a safety‐first model and of a profit maximisation model of farmer behaviour. Of the two sets of predictions, the data tend to support those of the safety‐first model more frequently than they support the predictions of the profit maximisation model. While the degree to which the former model ‘out‐performs’ the latter is not great, it is important to note that when the major inputs (land and human labour) and the major outputs (rice and jute), are focused upon, the safety‐first model performs much better than the profit maximisation model.     

Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions

Evidence‐based policy at the local level requires predicting the impact of an intervention to inform whether it should be adopted. Increasingly, local policymakers have access to published research evaluating the effectiveness of policy interventions from national research clearinghouses that review and disseminate evidence from program evaluations. Through these evaluations, local policymakers have a wealth of evidence describing what works, but not necessarily where. Multisite evaluations may produce unbiased estimates of the average impact of an intervention in the study sample and still produce inaccurate predictions of the impact for localities outside the sample for two reasons: (1) the impact of the intervention may vary across localities, and (2) the evaluation estimate is subject to sampling error. Unfortunately, there is relatively little evidence on how much the impacts of policy interventions vary from one locality to another and almost no evidence on the implications of this variation for the accuracy with which the local impact of adopting an intervention can be predicted using findings from an evaluation in other localities. In this paper, we present a set of methods for quantifying the accuracy of the local predictions that can be obtained using the results of multisite randomized trials and for assessing the likelihood that prediction errors will lead to errors in local policy decisions. We demonstrate these methods using three evaluations of educational interventions, providing the first empirical evidence of the ability to use multisite evaluations to predict impacts in individual localities—i.e., the ability of “evidence‐based policy” to improve local policy.     

Mass Media and Electoral Preferences During the 2016 US Presidential Race

Political Behavior - This paper uses analyses of commercial polls alongside content-analytic measures of sentiment in the content of nine newspapers to explore the relationship between voter...     

Determination of blood/serum ratios of different forensically relevant analytes in authentic samples

For forensic toxicological investigations only whole blood, but no serum is often available. Pharmacokinetic data are helpful for interpreting the results, but most of these studies indicate serum or plasma concentrations. In order to obtain reliable conversion factors which also take intersubject variability into account, the blood/serum ratios (B/S) of oxycodone, morphine, fentanyl, hydromorphone, zopiclone, MDMA, dexamphetamine, alprazolam, risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone were determined by LC-MS/MS using authentic samples. Blood and corresponding serum samples were obtained from driving studies performed with controlled or known dosages of the above drugs. The analytes were analysed in blood and serum and the following mean B/S ratios (relative standard deviations) were determined: oxycodone 1.48 (8.19 %); morphine 1.03 (3.59 %); fentanyl 0.87 (13.9 %); hydromorphone 1.04 (8.11 %); zopiclone 0.89 (16.1 %); MDMA 1.19 (8.04 %); dexamphetamine 0.89 (10.9 %); alprazolam 0.81 (5.84 %); risperidone 0.65 (7.52 %); 9-hydroxyrisperidone 0.73 (12.3 %). These mean values are largely in line with those reported in the literature. The B/S ratios did not appear to depend on partition coefficients, whereas there was strong evidence that B/S ratios decreased with increasing plasma protein binding.     

Research potential and limitations of trace analyses of cremated remains

Human cremation is a common funeral practice all over the world and will presumably become an even more popular choice for interment in the future. Mainly for purposes of identification, there is presently a growing need to perform trace analyses such as DNA or stable isotope analyses on human remains after cremation in order to clarify pending questions in civil or criminal court cases. The aim of this study was to experimentally test the potential and limitations of DNA and stable isotope analyses when conducted on cremated remains.For this purpose, tibiae from modern cattle were experimentally cremated by incinerating the bones in increments of 100 °C until a maximum of 1000 °C was reached. In addition, cremated human remains were collected from a modern crematory. The samples were investigated to determine level of DNA preservation and stable isotope values (C and N in collagen, C and O in the structural carbonate, and Sr in apatite). Furthermore, we assessed the integrity of microstructural organization, appearance under UV-light, collagen content, as well as the mineral and crystalline organization. This was conducted in order to provide a general background with which to explain observed changes in the trace analyses data sets. The goal is to develop an efficacious screening method for determining at which degree of burning bone still retains its original biological signals. We found that stable isotope analysis of the tested light elements in bone is only possible up to a heat exposure of 300 °C while the isotopic signal from strontium remains unaltered even in bones exposed to very high temperatures. DNA-analyses seem theoretically possible up to a heat exposure of 600 °C but can not be advised in every case because of the increased risk of contamination. While the macroscopic colour and UV-fluorescence of cremated bone give hints to temperature exposure of the bone's outer surface, its histological appearance can be used as a reliable indicator for the assessment of the overall degree of burning.     

Policy attribute framing: A comparison between three policy instruments for personal emissions reduction

A comparative experiment in the UK examined people's willingness to change energy consumption behavior under three different policy framings: energy tax, carbon tax, and personal carbon allowances (PCA). PCA is a downstream cap‐and‐trade policy proposed in the UK, in which emission rights are allocated to individuals. We hypothesized that due to economic, pro‐environmental and mental accounting drivers PCA would have greater potential to deliver emissions reduction than taxation. Participants (n = 1,096) received one version of a survey with the same energy‐behavior–related questions and identical incurred costs under one of the following framings: energy tax (where carbon was not mentioned), carbon tax, and PCA. Results suggest that policies that draw people's attention to carbon (PCA and carbon taxation) could have greater impact on their stated willingness to reduce energy consumption, and on the reduction amounts prompted, than would a non‐overt price signal (energy tax). There is mixed evidence, however, as to whether PCA or carbon taxation would produce the largest energy demand reductions. Some indication was found for a spillover toward wider carbon conservation under the PCA framing. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.