Predicting Outcomes for Youth Transferred to Adult Court

Extant research regarding juvenile transfer has focused primarily on the negative effects of current policies, with little consistent and rigorous work on the variation among the adolescents transferred to adult court and their later adjustment in the community. Using a sample of 193 transferred youth from Arizona, we consider how certain individual characteristics are related to four post-release outcomes (antisocial activity, re-arrest, re-institutionalization, and gainful activity). We find considerable variability in outcomes, with adjustment significantly and consistently related to certain legal and risk-need factors. These results indicate that some transferred youth may experience negative outcomes, and that refinements to transfer policy may benefit from consideration of these factors in determining which serious adolescent offenders are most appropriate for transfer.     

Physical attractiveness, issue agreement, and assimilation effects in candidate appraisal

This study examines the cognitive and affective factors of candidate appraisal by manipulating candidate attractiveness and levels of issue agreement with voters. Drawing upon research in evolutionary psychology and cognitive neuroscience, this analysis proposes that automatic processing of physical appearance predisposes affective disposition toward more attractive candidates, thereby influencing cognitive processing of issue information. An experimental design presented attractive and unattractive candidates who were either liberal or conservative in a mock primary election. The data show strong partial effects for appearance on vote intention, an interaction between appearance and issue agreement, and a tendency for voters to assimilate the dissimilar views of attractive candidates. We argue that physical appearance is important in primary elections when the differences in issue positions and ideology between candidates is small.     

‘Constructing a New Socialist Countryside’ and Beyond: An Analytical Framework for Studying Policy Implementation and Political Stability in Contemporary China

This article proposes a two-dimensional analytical framework to investigate the impact of local policy implementation on political system stability and legitimacy in China. It combines David Easton’s political systems theory with policy analysis and a variant of actor-centered institutionalism known as “strategic group analysis”. In the second part of the article, this framework is applied to a case study on local implementation of the official “constructing a new socialist countryside” policy in Qingyuan County, Zhejiang Province.     

Differential Effects of Adult Court Transfer on Juvenile Offender Recidivism

Prior research indicates that adolescent offenders transferred to adult court are more likely to recidivate than those retained in the juvenile system. The studies supporting this conclusion, however, are limited in addressing the issue of heterogeneity among transferred adolescents. This study estimates the effect of transfer on later crime using a sample of 654 serious juvenile offenders, 29% of whom were transferred. We use propensity score matching to reduce potential selection bias, and we partition the sample on legal characteristics to examine subgroup effects. We find an overall null effect of transfer on re-arrest, but evidence of differential effects of transfer for adolescents with different offending histories. These results suggest that evaluating the effects of transfer for all transferred adolescents together may lead to misguided policy conclusions.     

Risk and Outcomes: Are Adolescents Charged with Sex Offenses Different from Other Adolescent Offenders?

Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses are subject to specialized treatment and policies based on their assumed unique dangerousness, despite contradictory evidence. Limited information is available regarding risk factors and their relationships to outcomes in this population. The comparative frequency and predictive utility of empirically supported risk factors for general delinquency were examined using data from the Pathways to Desistance study. Adolescent males who committed sexual offenses (n = 127) were compared to adolescent males who committed non-sexual offenses (n = 1021). At the start of the study, the sample ranged in age from 14 to 18 (M = 16.00, SD = 1.12) and self-identified as primarily African American (44 %), Latino (29 %), or White (25 %). Outcomes were measured over 7 years and included general and sexual recidivism, involvement in school and work, and positive relationships with peers and adults. The results indicated a few small differences in the presence of risk factors and their relationship to outcomes, with many similarities. Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses had equivalent general recidivism but higher sexual recidivism, though this rate was low (7.87 %, or 10 of the 127 adolescents who had committed sexual offenses). New clinical and policy approaches may be needed given the similarities between groups.