The politics of minority statistics

Harold Orlans, of Chevy Chase, Maryland, was formerly on the staff of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. His books include The Nonprofit Research Institute, Contracting for Knowledge, Private Accreditation and Public Eligibility,and Nonprofit Organizations.Philip Lyons helped to gather the information in this article.     

Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations

The need for improved long-run projections of prison populations has increased in recent years because of record-high numbers of inmates and severe overcrowding in state and federal prisons, and because of the growing importance of changing demographic factors in influencing corrections populations. A model is developed for projecting: general population demographics; demographic- and offense-specific arrest rates, imprisonment probabilities, and times served; and then the size and composition of prison populations. Model parameters are estimated for Pennsylvania and are shown to be sensitive to demographic factors, particularly age and race. Projections of future arrests, prison commitments, and prison population are developed for Pennsylvania using projections of demographic changes in the state's population. Arrests are expected to peak in 1980, prison commitments are expected to peak in 1985, and prison populations are expected to peak in 1990, with the subsequent declines reflecting the maturation of the postwar baby boom children out of the highly crime-prone ages and, somewhat later, out of the highly prison-prone ages.     

A comment on methodological concerns: A rejoinder

This rejoinder to Professor Cohen's Comment is intended to elaborate on approaches we utilized in our original paper. Some of our specification was necessitated by data availability (e.g., the specification of the sanction process). We attempt to clarify our approach in regard to the intervention process. We provide an explanation of the modeling that could underly a test of the hypothesis that the control effect is a product of the arrest process—a test that we had regarded as informative but peripheral to our main points. As noted, a significant part of that test utilizes the full range of control variables available to us. Finally, we enumerate what we felt to be the main points of our paper—points we are afraid might otherwise be lost in this discussion of methodology.     

COVID-19 Pandemic and Intimate Partner Violence: an Analysis of Help-Seeking Messages in the Spanish-Speaking Media

The role of the Spanish-speaking media is crucial for how Latinx communities learn about seeking help when experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV). This study investigated the IPV help-seeking messages disseminated by the Spanish-speaking media in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. We engaged in an exploratory content analysis of videos from Univision’s main website, the most-watched Spanish-speaking media network in the U.S. We searched for videos related to IPV help-seeking posted from March 19–April 21, 2020—including the weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic and the U.S. mandated a shelter-in-place. After assessing inclusion criteria, 29 videos were analyzed. Data were analyzed using basic content analysis to determine frequencies and inductive interpretive content analysis to code for help-seeking messages. We identified eight manifest messages related to seeking help when experiencing IPV in times of a crisis: (1) contact a professional resource; (2) contact law enforcement; (3) contact family, friends, and members of your community; (4) create a safety plan; (5) don’t be afraid, be strong; (6) leave the situation; (7) protect yourself at home; and (8) services are available despite the pandemic. We found that the manifest messages alluded to three latent messages: (1) it is your responsibility to change your circumstances; (2) you are in danger and in need of protection; and (3) you are not alone. IPV and media professionals should ensure a structural understanding of IPV in their help-seeking messages and avoid perpetrating stigmatizing and reductionist messages.