东南亚地区形势:2012年

2012年东盟经济政治形势总的特点是稳定和发展。尽管面对不利的世界经济形势,东盟的经济前景仍然可以说是比较乐观的。在国际关系方面,美国奥巴马总统的新东南亚政策可谓是一石激起千层浪,东盟是否需要在中美两个大国之间作出选择,东盟将会作出什么样的选择?     

印度尼西亚对外军事合作发展及其地区影响

印尼在经历20世纪90年代剧烈的民主化政治进程之后,经过历届政府的过渡发展,现已逐渐走出政治混乱、经济萎缩、社会动荡的泥淖。自苏西洛2004年接任总统以来,印尼的民主政治进程呈现出趋向效率的态势,经济形势得到改善,     

Lean models,complex realities: elite interactions in post-conflict democratisation at the local level

Abstract

This article argues that accounting for the complexity of interaction in post-conflict democracy promotion is important to understand how interactions influence post-conflict democratisation. Using the case of democracy promotion in Kosovo, the article uncovers two aspects in interaction processes where accounting for complexity is particularly useful: domestic goals and actor constellations. Taking into account the variety of domestic goals helps to understand how democratic reforms are subverted by domestic elites for the sake of their own domestic agenda. Disentangling the complexity of actor constellations demonstrates that interaction dynamics are shaped by the leverage and the number of international actors involved in the negotiation. The article draws on fine-grained local-level data from Kosovo to illustrate the argument.     

Die Metamorphosen der AfD-Wählerschaft: Von einer euroskeptischen Protestpartei zu einer (r)echten Alternative?

Within a very short time the German party “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD) was able to position itself as a representative of neglected groups and taboo issues. At the occasion of the federal election 2017, the party received more than ten percent of the votes and is now represented in the German Bundestag. However, it still remains unclear if the AfD will establish itself in the German party landscape in the long-run. Until today, the development of the AfD is marked by continuous quarrels about political positions and leaders. These conflicts and the associated changes may have an important impact on the party’s prospect of establishment. Of particular interest is whether the AfD already has a loyal electorate or the party is primarily elected by volatile voter segments motivated by protest and anti-party-sentiments. Applying a longitudinal perspective the article outlines that the party’s success depends heavily on volatile voter segments. However, a certain increase of loyal voters has also been observed – albeit on a low level.     

广西北部湾经济区府际合作机制探索

在区域一体化背景下,广西北部湾经济区的发展应加强成员城市地方政府间的合作。广西北部湾经济区地方政府间合作存在诸多困境,应该从健全法律体系、规划布局产业链、利用财政金融手段、设立协调机构、打破地区本位、改进绩效考核、定期举行合作论坛七个方面对政府间合作机制的建立进行探索,以期进一步推动广西北部湾经济区的发展。     

Föderalismus als Entdeckungsverfahren &;ndash; Zur Theorie und Empirie des innovativen Bundesstaates am Beispiel Österreichs

Differenzierungen im Recht gehören zu den Wesensmerkmalen des Bundesstaates. Der vorliegende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, wie über diese Differenzierungen föderalistischer Wettbewerb entsteht und wechselseitiges Lernen ermöglicht wird. Nicht zu vernachlässigen ist aber auch der Effekt der Rechtsangleichung durch kooperativen Föderalismus. Beide Phänomene sind Bausteine einer Theorie des innovativen Bundesstaates.     

Fiscal Federalism in Transition: Evidence from Ukraine

Effects of fiscal federalism on redistribution and economic growth are analyzed for Ukraine, a country with large regional differences. Since there is virtually no such empirical literature, except a study of the German case, and since there are several potential flaws, the results must be interpreted in a very tentative way. We find that this relatively poor, disorganized country with little democracy has effectively redistributed income from relatively wealthy to relatively poor regions and thus promoted regional economic convergence, and even dampened the recession in both types of regions. We also find that the evidence does not reject the view that relatively poor regions used the transfers in a growth-conducive fashion, and the paper argues that the findings may have implications beyond the case of Ukraine. But the analysis is tricky, uncertain, and merely a small step to an interesting research issue.     

发挥广西民族文化资源优势的思考

广西具有独特的民族文化资源 ,要把重视点的建设与重视线的规划和面的贯通相结合 ,改善广西民族文化景观资源发挥优势的微观环境和宏观环境 ;要把坚持民族特色和流行时尚相结合 ,焕发广西民族文化风情资源的勃勃生机 ;要把重民族传统与重现代创新精神相结合 ,发挥广西民族文化艺术资源优势 ,才能实现文化与经济协调发展 ,实现富民兴桂新跨越。