Book reviews

Central Asia and Transcaucasia: Ethnicity and Conflict Vitaly V. Naumkin (editor) Westport, CT.: Greenwood Publishing Group, 1994, 239 pp, $60.00

Turks and Greeks: Neighbours in Conflict Vamik Volkan and Norman Itzkowitz Huntingdon, Cambs: Eothen Press, 233 pp, biblio, ISBN 0906719 25 9 £24.95 hardback; ISBN 0906719 30 5 £12.50 paperback

Moguls and Mandarins: Oil, Imperialism and the Middle East in British Foreign Policy, 1900–1940 Marian Kent Frank Cass Publishers, 1994, viii‐169, pp bibliography, index, $70.00

Central Asia: Its Strategic Importance and Future Prospects Hafeez Malik (editor) London: Macmillan Press, 1994, 337 pp, £47.50

Religion, State and Politics in the Soviet Union and Successor States John Anderson Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, 236 pp, index, biblio., hardback £35/$54.95, paperback £14.95/$18.95

China Considers the Middle East Lillian Craig Harris London: I. B. Tauris, 1993, 345 pp, £34.50

Splendours of the Bosphorus: Houses and Palaces of Istanbul Chris Hellier London: Taurus Parke, 1993, 228 pp, index, £35

The Remaking of Istanbul Zeynep Celik Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993, 183 pp, paperback

Afghan Embroidery Bernard Dupaigne, Françoise Cousin and Roland Pavia Paris: Fondation de France, Musee de l'Homme and UNHCR, 1993, 136 pp, illus.     

Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.     

Books in review

Among his forthcoming books are Psychology and Tortureand Psychology and Social Policy (edited with P.E. Tetlock).