Time for a haircut: political regimes and sovereign debt restructurings

ABSTRACT

Conventional wisdom claims that reputation leads sovereign states to full debt repayment. However, defaults are recurrent, some debtor countries take a lot of time to end them, and some extract costly concessions from investors. This article argues that these differences are largely explained by the political regimes in the borrowing countries. While previous research examines whether democracies make more credible commitments, we analyze how democracies affect bargaining with foreign investors after a default occurs. Democracies, with their institutional checks, electoral uncertainty, greater transparency, and public deliberation, make swift decision-making harder, create incentives to pander and posture, and give leverage to minimize the win set of viable agreements. We test our theory on a comprehensive dataset of debt restructurings with private creditors in the period 1975–2017. The event history analysis indicates that democracies experience longer restructurings and the double-hurdle regression analysis shows that democracies obtain larger creditor losses. Further, there is interesting variation among democracies and autocracies. Our findings suggest that political regimes are crucial to explaining why cooperation fails in international debt markets.     

Freedom in paradise: quality of conditional release reports submitted to the Hawaii judiciary

Annually thousands of insanity acquitees are released from mental hospitals when they are no longer determined to be dangerous. This research examined quality of post-acquittal Conditional Release (CR) reports submitted to the Hawaii Judiciary. Hawaii utilizes a “three panel” system for assessing trial felony competency, criminal responsibility, and conditional release, where typically two psychologists (one Department of Health and one community-based) and one community-based psychiatrist submit independent reports to the Court. One hundred fifty CR reports were rated using a 44-item report quality measure. Interrater reliability trials indicated good to excellent agreement between quality ratings. Overall level of report quality was poor regardless of examiners' professional discipline, employer, or board certification status. Concordance rates for CR opinions were poor. Level of agreement between the judicial determination and majority recommendations was also poor. Reasons for the poor quality and level of agreement are discussed with recommendations for report quality improvement, including standardization of procedures and use of forensic risk assessment instruments.     

On the Relationship between Violent Conflict and Wages in Colombia

We analyse how forced displacements caused by violent conflict are related to the wages of workers in Colombia. Using data from the Quality of Life Survey (2011–2014), we analyse the differences in wages between those forced by violence to move to other regions, and those who moved for other reasons. We apply Propensity Score Matching techniques to compare workers from the two groups, finding that forced displacement is related to decreases of between 10 and 29 per cent in the wages of males, and between 18 and 37 per cent in the wages of females, relative to their counterparts. Thus, forced displacements are related to poorer labour market outcomes in terms of wages.     

Los alcances del control judicial en la expropiación

The declaration of public use in takings is, in most constitutional systems, a guarantee every individual has against the power of the State to seize his or her property. The institute is of fundamental importance for the protection of (other) individual guarantees from the expropriatory power of the State. However, our Supreme Court’s traditional precedents do not allow its judicial control. This paper analyses what is public use and what is the reason for its importance. Then, it shows that the Supreme Court’s criteria have varied the matter, containing in its development an important exception and several ambivalences. Finally, it explains why it is more adequate to our constitutional principles, to the rights our Constitution grants and to the very nature of the institute of takings for the declaration of public use to be subject to judicial control.     

Intimate partner violence against women. Does violence decrease after the entry of the alleged offender into the criminal justice system?

Intimate partner violence(IPV)is simultaneously assumed as a serious crime and a major public health issue,having recurrences as one of its main characteristics and,consequently,re-entries of some alleged offenders in the criminal justice system(CJS).The main goal of this study is to assess if in cases of female victims of IPV,violence decreases after the first entry of the alleged offender in the CJS.A retrospective study was performed based on the analysis of police reports of alleged cases of IPV during a 4-year period.The final sample(n=1488)was divided into two groups according to the number of entries in the CJS(single or multiple)followed by a comparative approach.Results suggest that violence decreases after the first entry of alleged offenders in the CJS.Re-entries were found in only 15.5%of the cases but they were accountable for 3.3 times more crimes on average.Besides,victims of recidivism presented more injuries and required more medical care.Thus,a small group of alleged offenders seems to be more violent and accountable for most of the IPV crimes registered in the CJS suggesting that regardless of legal sanctions aiming to deter violence,these measures may not be enough for a certain group of offenders.This study sustains the need for a predictive model to quantify the risk of repeated IPV cases within the Portuguese population.     

Recovery of DNA and fingerprints from touched documents

This study investigated the various factors affecting DNA profiling from DNA recovered from fingerprints deposited on paper before and after fingerprint enhancement treatments. The DNeasy^® plant mini kit (QIAGEN^®) was found to improve DNA recovery from paper by over 150% compared with the QIAamp^® mini kit. A significant decrease in the amount of DNA recovered was observed following treatment with DFO and/or Ninhydrin. This decrease in yield did not have a comparably significant effect on the quality of the SGM Plus™ profiles. Furthermore, this study found that whilst certain paper types, such as newspaper, magazine and filter paper allowed for the good recovery of DNA, common office paper and white card, strongly interfered with the recovery of DNA resulting in poor quality profiles.     

Institutional Suicide and Elite Coordination: The Spanish Transition Revisited

ABSTRACT

In the literature on democratisation, the Spanish case has a paradigmatic status, especially for the negotiations between the regime and the opposition. While these negotiations did stabilise the new regime, the transition was driven by the regime’s elites. The key event was the approval of the Law for Political Reform in November 1976, when the legislature voted its own demise. The change was done according to the rules of the system. To explain this reform, we offer a formal model of coordination and a statistical analysis of an original dataset of the 531 legislators. The reform was possible because of elites’ belief coordination.     

Proficiency test for the analysis of hair for drugs of abuse,organized by the Society of Hair Testing

Eighteen laboratories interested in the analysis of human hair for drugs of abuse participated in a proficiency test (PT) organized by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT) in 2001.Samples sent to the participants included one drug-free hair sample and two samples from drug users, sent in the form of short segments previously checked for homogeneity by three reference laboratories. Participants were requested to analyze the samples following the standard procedure used routinely in their laboratories.The compounds present in the samples included opiates, cocaine and metabolite, cannabinoids and amphetamines. All the laboratories analyzed opiates, cocaine and benzoylecgonine (BE); only 10 analyzed amphetamines, and 9 cannabinoids. Various methods were used to extract drugs from the hair-enzyme treatment, acidic, basic and methanol extractions. All the laboratories employed GC-MS, with the exception of two which used GC-MS/MS and LC-MS/MS, respectively. Six laboratories performed initial screening tests by RIA, ELISA or EMIT.Results show that the laboratories performed well qualitatively, since they successfully identified all the analytes that they tested, with the exception of eight false results. However, the scatter of quantitative results was high.     

Z-line examination by the PillCam~(TM) SB:Prospective comparison of three ingestion protocols

AIM:To evaluate the Z-line visualization by the PillCamTM SB2 using three different ingestion protocols. METHODS:Ninety consecutive patients undergoing small bowel capsule endoscopy(SBCE)between January and May 2008 were included in the study. They swallowed the capsule in the standing(Group A= 30),supine(Group B=30)and right supine positions (Group C=30).Baseline patient characteristics, difficulties in capsule ingestion,esophageal transit times(ETT)and Z-line visualization were noted. RESULTS:No significa...