Campaign War Chests and Challenger Quality in Senate Elections

This article presents the first comprehensive analysis of the role of war chests in U.S. Senate elections. Using data on races from 1980 to 2000, I demonstrate the effect of an incumbent senator's war chest on a campaign. War chests do not deter strong general‐election challengers and have an insubstantial or insignificant effect on primary elections, challenger spending, and other electoral variables. Also, war chests are not raised in anticipation of a tough electoral battle but are instead the result of money left over from the previous campaign.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

DETERRENCE EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT

Abstract The controversy of statistical evaluation of effectiveness of the present criminal justice system and of specific programs or changes implemented in the existing system has in part centered around the value of crime-incidence data. The relationships between victimization and UCR or police-blotter data pertinent to their use in evaluation are first described. An example is presented using an empirical-stochastic model developed solely from UCR data to illustrate an approach to evaluation of system effectiveness. Here an ad hoc procedure is displayed which quantifies variation in and/or shifts in crime patterns after an intervention in the system.     

The Wisdom of Which Crowd? On the Pathology of a Listening Government

This article considers the claims made by members of the current UK Coalition government to adopt a new style of listening, consultative politics based upon the so‐called wisdom of the crowd. It considers how these claims have—and could have—been acted upon, focusing upon two central policy proposals; the funding of higher education and the reform of the National Health Service.