Conditions of far-right strength in contemporary Western Europe: an application of Kitschelt's theory*

Abstract.   Applying the demand-side claims of Kitschelt's theory, and the expectation that electoral systems affect voter choice, this article provides an explanation of cross-national variation in support for new radical right (NRR) parties between 1982 and 1995. After discussing concepts and measures, two versions of qualitative comparative analysis (Boolean analysis and fuzzy-set analysis) are applied to data for ten West European countries. The results suggest that, in combination with electoral systems that had larger district magnitudes, NRR strength resulted from a restructuring of the space of party competition due to post-industrialism and growth in the welfare state. Convergence between major parties of the left and right was not among the combination of conditions that led to NRR success. Apart from demonstrating that fuzzy-set analysis can yield a simpler explanation than Boolean analysis, this study reveals anomalous NRR outcomes for Austria, Belgium and France.     

Asian Experiences

A personal view of East Asia, focusing on China, this article examines the efforts of Chinese and British officials in Hong Kong during the mid-1980s to develop practical and durable local solutions, since the survival of a vigorous Hong Kong was a mutual interest. Japan was a very different challenge and a hugely enjoyable posting. There was an ever wider and stronger bilateral agenda. Japan's recovery from recession was slow but demonstrated impressive inherent capability.     

Determinants of regime type in newly independent states

Abstract.  Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence-related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone major political transitions allows one to determine factors favouring democracy over autocracy under such volatile circumstances. The authors test several hypotheses, using cross-sectional and cross-sectional time-series analyses, and find that economic development elevates the level of democracy in new states. Cultural heterogeneity has no effect, but external factors play an important role. Genocide and politicide reduce democracy, while civil wars have the opposite effect. These findings prove robust to alternative measurements of the dependent variable and alternative model specifications.