A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.     

The risks of contract law

The economic analysis of law may be able to provide some reason why it is efficient to enforce wholly executory contracts, but (I submit) it has not done so.     

The leadership styles of police managers

Leadership involves both the activity and behavior of managers. There are at least six leadership theories, one of which, the personal-situational, has resulted in the development of a number of contingency models of managerial style. The one created by Hershey and Blanchard is used to assess the styles of 155 police managers. Findings of this research indicate that police managers use two or three styles, are as effective as nonpolice managers, and tend to avoid “risky” styles, particularly delegating.     

A case of homicide by lethal injection with lidocaine

This report describes a homicide by overdosage with lidocaine. The decedent, a 32-year-old male hospitalized for a lengthy period with acute intermittent porphyria and chronic pancreatitis, suffered apparent asystole and seizure. Failed resuscitation preceded death. A forensic autopsy was conducted based upon suspicions of alleged patient mistreatment by one of the attending nurses. Toxicological analyses revealed the presence of lidocaine in blood, liver, kidney, brain, and heart at 22.2 mg/L and 43.6, 28.3, 23.1, and 13.1 mg/kg, respectively. Also present were diazepam, phenytoin, and promethazine. Both diazepam and phenytoin had been administered during resuscitation, but lidocaine had not. The cause of death was determined to be ventricular arrhythmia precipitated by lidocaine overdosage. The administered dose was calculated to have been approximately 1500 mg. The manner of death was determined to be homicide. The nurse was arrested and subsequently tried for murder by administering a lethal quantity of lidocaine.     

Dueling Security Stories: Wilson and Lodge Talk Strategy

Perhaps the most consequential effort to expound a grand strategic narrative was Woodrow Wilson's campaign to persuade the American people, the US Senate, and world public opinion to embrace his concept for making the world safe for democracy. Wilson and his interlocutors in grand strategy illustrate the role of rhetoric and narrative in managing two kinds of complexity in discussions of grand strategy: the conceptual integration of facts and values (of “is” and “ought”) in strategic persuasion and the political integration of diverse perspectives among partners in a strategic coalition. In particular, I explore the hypothesis that rhetorical and narrative persuasive devices permit grand strategists to obfuscate internal contradictions in their vision, facilitating persuasion in the short run but producing characteristic patterns of eventual policy failure and thereby serving as an engine of change in grand strategy.