The Controversy Over Western Measures of Soviet Defense Expenditures

A retired CIA analyst of the Soviet economy presents a comprehensive and in-depth comparison of diverse Western estimates of the size and rate of growth of Soviet military expenditures from the mid-1950s through 1990. Analyzing the explicit criteria and implicit assumptions that underlay the compilation of these estimates, the author evaluates the relative veracity of divergent claims. The article then examines alternative claims about the impact of Gorbachev and giasnost' on our understanding of Soviet defense expenditures, and explores the extent to which Soviet leaders themselves knew how much they were spending in this area. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P27, P24, P52.     

Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.