Effectiveness of comparison overlays generated with DentalPrint software in bite mark analysis

Validation studies of the new DentalPrint software were carried out with experimental bite marks in pigskin. The bite marks were digitally photographed according to the ABFO guidelines for evidence collection. Dental casts used in the experiment were scanned in 3D and 2D, and comparison overlays were generated using DentalPrint and Adobe Photoshop software, respectively. Digitized photographs of the experimental bite marks and the biting edges obtained in the overlays were compared by two different examiners to analyze the impact of training and experience with the two methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals for each cutoff point were calculated. The expert examiner using DentalPrint obtained the best results, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.76 (SE=0.057; CI at 95%=0.652-0.876). Fairly high specificity values were found for DentalPrint, and the best results were obtained for the cutoff value that discriminated between the examiner's response "biter" and the rest of the possible (specificity 97.9%, CI at 95%=93.2%-99.6%). Therefore, the results presented here indicate that DentalPrint is a useful, accurate tool for forensic purposes, although further research on the comparison process is needed to enhance the validity of bite mark analysis.     

The 1962 Cuban intelligence estimate: A methodological perspective

The performance of American intelligence in the 1962 Cuban crisis was measured inadequately. An account of its failures suggests that the roots of poor performance, and of SNIE 85–3–62 in particular, were in a flawed methodological approach. Problems in four aspects of the intelligence methodology are identified: in the use of comparative logic; in the use of evidence for theory validation; in the formulation of research questions; and in the development and review of assumptions. Finally, the methodological discussion yields lessons concerning the analysis of intelligence performance and makes suggestions for improvement of the intelligence assessment process.     

Linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country

This paper investigates the relationship between linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country. During the 40 years of Franco??s dictatorship the use of the Basque language was banned. Therefore, there may be some linguistic roots underlying the conflict in the Basque Country. We show that at the municipality level, linguistic polarization reduces the level of conflict. This finding is robust to various ways of measuring linguistic and ideological polarization and the inclusion of other covariates. In addition, we find that a high level of the stock of human capital is beneficial for reducing conflict intensity.     

Temporal Influences of Family Structure and Family Risk Factors on Drug Use Initiation in a Multiethnic Sample of Adolescent Boys

This study examines the effects of family structure and family environments on the initiation of illicit drug use among a sample of U.S.- and foreign-born Hispanic/Latino, African American, and White non-Hispanic adolescent boys (N = 3413). Bivariate and multivariate analyses with longitudinal data, three years, were used to assess transitional/temporal influences of family variables on the initiation of illicit drug use. Findings revealed large differences in family structure among the three race/ethnic groups. African American adolescents report the lowest incidence of illicit drug use initiation, and the weakest effects of family structure and environment on substance use. Cumulative effects of family risk factors were strongly associated with increased probabilities of illicit drug use initiation, but there were temporal as well as race/ethnic variations on these effects. Deteriorating changes in family environments were stronger predictors of the initiation of drug use among Hispanic immigrants than nonimmigrants, and family socioeconomic status was a predictor for immigrant Hispanics only. The relationship between family structure and drug use initiation varied in the context of temporal indicators of family environments, and the accumulation of family risk factors was a stronger predictor of illicit drug initiation than family structure.     

Group specific public goods, orchestration of interest groups with free riding

We consider a situation in which two groups contest group-specific public goods. Each member of the group may have a different valuation of the prize. Our model can be interpreted as the contestants’ cost of lobbying efforts being non-linear, or the returns to their efforts being decreasing. We show that the level of free-riding depends on the return of the investment. We consider the situation under which one group initiates a contest to which different individuals and/or groups can be added. The question we pose is what is the optimal structure of additional groups?     

Performance and prize decomposition in contests

This paper focuses on the effect of additive contest decomposition on performance: winning probabilities and efforts of the contestants. Our main result provides a sufficient condition for invariance of contest performance to the decomposition of a contest, when the sum of the possibly differently valued prizes in the segmented contests is equal to the value of the prize in the original grand contest and the relative prizes in the sub-contests are equal for every contestant. It is shown that this condition is satisfied by the commonly used exponential logistic contest success functions. With these functions the contest designer does not have an incentive to split the prize and create additive, segmented sub-contests. We then prove that when the additive contest decomposition is asymmetric, contest decomposition may adversely affect the designer; that it, reduce the total efforts of the contestants.     

An approach to evaluating adolescent adaptive processes: Validity of an interview-based measure

The authors present an initial exploration, of the validity of 15 scales designed to assess adaptive ego processes in adolescence. These scales are rated solelyThis study was supported by the Youth Development Project of the Joslin DRTC (NIH AM 20530-01), grants from the Psychoanalytic Research Fund of the American Psychoanalytic Association, the Spencer Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Harris Trust, National Instutute of Mental Health, a Research Scientist Award (K-05-MH-70178) (Dr. Hauser), the Maternal and Child Health Research Grants Program, and a Faculty Scholar Award of the William T. Grant Foundation (Dr. Beardslee).Clinical director, Department of Psychiatry, The Children's Hospital; and assistnt professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from Case-Western Reserve University. Currently studying adaptation and intervention with youngsters at high risk for psychopathology.Chief of psychiatry, Joslin Diabetes Center; and associate professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Currently studying psychosocial consequences of diabetes mellitus.Associate professor in psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received M.D. from Yale University and Ph.D. from Harvard University (psychology). Currently studying family contexts of adolescent development and outcomes in diabetic adolescents.Director of evaluation research, The Children's Unit of McLean Hospital. Received Dipl. Psych. from Freie Universitat, Berlin (clinical psychology); Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying relationships between psychopathology and development among adolescent psychiatric patients.Research associate, Henry A. Murray Research Center of Radcliffe Colleges; and instructor of psychology, Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School. Received Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying adolescent and family coping processes in response to stressful events.Currentlyand tudying research methodology and statistics.M.S.W., Smith College School of Social Work. Currently attending Dartmouth Medical School.