How Election Polls Shape Voting Behaviour

This article investigates how election information such as opinion polls can influence voting intention. The bandwagon effect claims that voters ‘float along’: a party experiencing increased support receives more support, and vice versa. Through a large national survey experiment, evidence is found of a bandwagon effect among Danish voters. When voters are exposed to a news story describing either an upwards or downwards movement for either a small or large party, they tend to move their voting intentions in the according direction. The effect is strongest in the positive direction – that is, when a party experiences increased support, more follows. Consistent effects are found across two different parties for a diverse national sample in a political context very different from earlier research on the bandwagon effects. Considering previous research and the fact that evidence is not found that suggests that the effect of polls vary across sociodemographic groups, the results imply that bandwagon behaviour is based not on social or political contingencies, such as media or political institution, but on fundamentals of political cognition.     

The economic effects of constitutions: replicating—and extending—Persson and Tabellini

Persson and Tabellini (The Economic Effects of Constitutions, The MIT Press, Cambridge, 2003) show that presidential regimes and majoritarian election systems have important economic effects. Here, the number of countries is expanded and more recent data is used. In replicating and extending their analyses, we find that the effect of presidential regimes vanishes almost entirely. With regard to electoral systems, the original results are largely confirmed: majoritarian (as opposed to proportional) electoral systems lead to lower government expenditure, lower levels of rent seeking but also lower output per worker. The institutional details, such as the proportion of candidates that are not elected on party lists and district size, are particularly important.     

Besprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Effect of different post-feeding intervals on the total time of development of the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

By estimating the age of the immature stages of flies developing on a corpse, forensic entomologists are able to establish the minimum post-mortem interval. Blowflies, which are the first and most important colonizers, usually leave the cadaver at the end of the last larval stage searching for a pupation site. This period of development is referred as the post-feeding or wandering stage. The characteristics of the ground where the corpse was placed might be of notable importance for the post-feeding dispersal time: For pupariation the larvae prefer an environment protected from light and predators and may have a longer dispersal time in order to reach an appropriate pupation site. Hence, the dispersal time can vary and may influence the total time of development which may lead to an erroneous calculation of the post-mortem interval. This study investigates the effect of various post-feeding time intervals on the development of the blowfly Lucilia sericata at a temperature of 25°C. As larvae reached the post-feeding stage a pupariation substrate was offered at 0 and after 12, 24 and 48h. Only the larvae with a dispersal time of 24h (total time of development 325.2h; median) and 48h (total time of development 347.7h; median) showed a significantly longer total development time compared to the control group (total time of development 318.4h; median). The mortality rate did not differ between groups; however the flies that emerged from the group with a dispersal of 48h were significantly smaller indicating increased energy consumption during dispersal. The results of this study indicate that a prolonged post-feeding stage could increase the total developmental time of L. sericata which should be taken into consideration when interpreting entomological findings. The need for a serious examination of current rearing practices in forensic entomology laboratories is indicated because reference data sets for the time of development are usually produced by offering the post-feeding stage a substrate for pupariation immediately.     

Three Conceptual Problems with the Doctrine of Joint Criminal Enterprise

This article dissects the Tadi court's argument for findingthe doctrine of joint criminal enterprise in the ICTY Statute.The key arguments are identified and each are found to be eitherproblematic or insufficient to deduce the doctrine from thestatute: the object and purpose of the statute to punish majorwar criminals, the inherently collective nature of war crimesand genocide and the conviction of war criminals for joint enterprisesin World War II cases. The author criticizes this over-relianceon international case law and the insufficient attention tothe language of criminal statutes when interpreting conspiracydoctrines. The result of these mistakes is a doctrine of jointcriminal enterprise that fails to offer a sufficiently nuancedtreatment of intentionality, foreseeability and culpability.Specifically, the doctrine in its current form suffers fromthree conceptual deficiencies: (1) the mistaken attributionof criminal liability for contributors who do not intend tofurther the criminal purpose of the enterprise, (2) the impositionof criminal liability for the foreseeable acts of one's co-conspiratorsand (3) the mistaken claim that all members of a joint enterpriseare equally culpable for the actions of its members. The authorconcludes by briefly suggesting amendments to the Rome Statuteto rectify these deficiencies.     

WHAT ROLE FOR GOVERNMENT? THE PROMOTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY THROUGH FORESTRY‐RELATED CLIMATE CHANGE INTERVENTIONS IN POST‐CONFLICT NEPAL

This study examines rationales behind the choice of local interlocutors by forestry‐related climate change projects in post‐conflict Nepal. In their stated objectives, all projects claim to involve the government, and most project decision makers are in favor of government involvement, yet project resources overwhelmingly favor civil society institutions. Project decision makers' choices are shaped by a combination of donor conditionalities, contextual constraints, and beliefs about which institutional attributes matter and how to address historical marginalization. The projects' empowerment of civil society sidesteps opportunities to strengthen the local government, which is described as weak, disinterested, and lacking legitimacy owing to the absence of elections due to the unsettled post‐conflict situation. Through the choices made and their justifications, projects and donors further marginalize the local government materially and discursively and thereby entrench its perceived deficiencies. We argue that this privileging of civil society may have implications for government legitimacy and post‐conflict reconstruction and call for donors and the intervening institutions they fund to critically and collectively reassess the role of forestry‐related climate change projects in the larger process of post‐conflict reconstruction in Nepal. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contesting the Monopoly of Interpretation: The Uneasy Relationship between Ulama and Sunni Parties in Yemen

Most studies on Sunni Islamism either neglect ulama or portray them as basically diverging from the Islamist movement. Unlike their Islamist counterparts who are contenders for political power in incumbent regimes, the ulama are depicted as loyal quietists. As such, this article problematizes this dichotomy. As is shown by the case of Yemen, the ulama form an integral part of the Islamist Islah party, yet since the position of ulama within the party is crucially dependent on their monopoly over interpretation, and as the lay Muslim Brothers have increasingly digressed from the rulings of the ulama, they have sought alliances with their peers outside the party and attempted to undermine the politics of the Brotherhood by means of ulama associations and founding Salafi parties. By focusing on these developments, the article proposes an alternative reading to the allegedly contradictory politics of Islah which might be valid to other Islamist parties too.