Opposition dynamism under authoritarianism: the case of Yemen, 1994–2011

In contrast to the empirical conditions in large parts of the authoritarian world, the systematic literature on political opposition under authoritarianism either treats the opposition as a static entity or fails to comprehensively address its dynamic character. On the basis of a critical literature review and an ensuing analysis of the Joint Meeting Parties, a cross-ideological opposition alliance that gradually evolved to become the main competitor of the Salih regime in Yemen, we suggest that political opposition in electoral authoritarian regimes is an intrinsically dynamic institution in terms of its organizational shape, its goals and its modes of contestation. We also show that, while authoritarian structures do set the basic conditions defining opposition action, much of what motivates this action and contributes to opposition dynamism emerges from within the opposition. In addition, our findings on the Yemeni case suggest that opposition dynamism peaks when the strength of the opposition is nearly on par with that of the regime.     

Different governments,similar agendas? Analyzing more than seven decades of Norwegian policy agendas presented in executive speeches

Norwegian politics have undergone significant changes since 1945. This paper analyzes over seven decades of policy agendas outlined in Norwegian executive speeches focusing on the composition and development of the agenda using categories from the Comparative Agendas Project. The analysis focuses on (a) the dynamics of agenda changes over time, (b) the diversity and distribution of attention, and (c) in how far external shocks or partisan factors drive major agenda shifts. Our results show that the Norwegian executive agenda has become more encompassing over time, that it is comparatively diverse, and that diversity increases as Norwegian politics becomes more complex. While there is generally a high degree of stability in the agenda, sudden punctuations also occur. Partisan factors only play a limited role in explaining these attention shifts, while external shocks seem to be more relevant.     

Generosity: No Doubt, but at Times Excessive and Delusive

One of the ways in which the artificial languages of mathematics are “generous”, that is, in which they assists the advance of thought, is through its establishment of advanced operatory structures that permit an even further advance of intuition. However, this generosity may be delusive, suggest ideas which in the longer run turn out to be untenable. The paper analyses two cases of “honest generosity”, namely a “proof” of the sign rule “less times less makes plus” from the 1340s and a result in partition theory obtained by Euler by means of rash manipulations of infinite series and products, case-Cantor’s introduction of transfinite numbers from 1895-and (in modern terms) a failed attempt to extend the semi-group of algebraic powers into a complete group, also from c. 1340. Gewöhnlich glaubt der Mensch, wenn er nur Worte hört es müsse sich dabei wohl auch was denken lassen Goethe, Faust I, 2565-2566 He gives the kids free samples because he knows full well that today’s young innocent faces will be tomorrow’s clientele Tom Lehrer, “The Old Dope Peddler”      

Criminal Behavior in Opioid‐Dependent Patients Before and During Maintenance Therapy: 6‐year Follow‐Up of a Nationally Representative Cohort Sample

Lifetime prevalence of opioid dependence is about 0.4% in western countries. Opioid‐dependent patients have high morbidity and mortality and a high risk of criminal behavior. Few studies have addressed the long‐term impact of opioid maintenance therapy on convictions and criminal behavior. The PREMOS study is a prospective, longitudinal, naturalistic clinical study of a nationally representative sample of 2694 opioid‐dependent patients to investigate convictions and criminal behavior at baseline and after 6 years of maintenance treatment. At follow‐up, 2284 patients still were eligible (84.7%). A comprehensive assessment including a patient and doctor questionnaire, and the EuropASI was completed at baseline and follow‐up. Data on criminality at follow‐up had been received for 1147 (70.6%) patients. A large number (84.5%) of them had been charged or convicted at any time before baseline assessment, most frequently with drug‐related offenses (66.8%), acquisitive crime (49.1%), or acts of violence (22.0%). Reported charges and convictions had declined to 17.9% for the last 12 months before follow‐up, which was also reflected by a significant decrease in the EuropASI subscore “legal problems” from 1.52 at baseline to 0.98 after 6 years. These data indicate a significant and clinically relevant reduction in criminal behavior in opioid‐dependent patients in long‐term maintenance treatment. Maintenance therapy is effective in the reduction in both narcotics‐related and acquisition crime.     

Lessons from a partially controlled field trial

Objectives

Using the case of an on-going work-oriented prisoner-reentry experiment in Milwaukee, describe the challenges of organizing and sustaining a high-quality trial in the field in which only the randomization and data analysis are directly ??controlled?? by the evaluation team.

Methods

The case study is of a randomized experiment involving youthful male prisoners with a history of violence and gang membership, scheduled for release into Milwaukee. The intervention included six months of pre-release services with a work-release opportunity, and intensive services and supervision following release. The case study describes the initial experimental plan and how much of that plan could be salvaged in the face of delays, administrative errors, and other problems.

Results

The initial plan, when compared with the actual experiment, specified a larger and more homogeneous sample, more resources devoted to various aspects of the treatment, and more intensive supervision following release. These problems arose despite the best efforts of public officials. Randomization was preserved, and for that reason the results will still be of interest, although perhaps under-powered.

Conclusions

The ??gold standard?? may become a bit tarnished in the field. It was crucial in this experiment to have a member of the experimental team engaged with the relevant state agencies at every step of the process to sustain this effort and to ensure that the treatment was delivered and relevant data generated. A newsletter and regular meetings with agents proved useful. The outcomes will have high internal validity.     

Brothers in arms or at arms? IG‐Metall in 1994: Confronting recession and unification

The protracted collective bargaining dispute in German manufacturing during spring 1994 displayed a variety of characteristics fundamental to an understanding of the social unification process in Germany. This article focuses on contextual conditions affecting the negotiating and compromise formation process. This serves to illustrate the ‘turbulent environment’ under which industrial relations are currently taking place. To illustrate this argument the article analyses the requirements and obstacles to finding a compromise in the 1994 bargaining round. The core challenge consisted in displaying a degree of organisational flexibility on both sides of the bargaining table. At the heart of this challenge is the search for a new architecture in German industrial relations which includes coming to terms with the combined effects of unification and economic restructuring.     

The Hidden American Immigration Consensus: A Conjoint Analysis of Attitudes toward Immigrants

Many studies have examined Americans' immigration attitudes. Yet prior research frequently confounds multiple questions, including which immigrants to admit and how many to admit. To isolate attitudes on the former question, we use a conjoint experiment that simultaneously tests the influence of nine immigrant attributes in generating support for admission. Drawing on a two‐wave, population‐based survey, we demonstrate that Americans view educated immigrants in high‐status jobs favorably, whereas they view those who lack plans to work, entered without authorization, are Iraqi, or do not speak English unfavorably. Strikingly, Americans' preferences vary little with their own education, partisanship, labor market position, ethnocentrism, or other attributes. Beneath partisan divisions over immigration lies a broad consensus about who should be admitted to the country. The results are consistent with norms‐based and sociotropic explanations of immigration attitudes. This consensus points to limits in both theories emphasizing economic and cultural threats, and sheds new light on an ongoing policy debate.