The political advantage of a volatile market: the relationship between Presidential popularity and the ‘investor fear gauge’

• The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is the premier established benchmark of near‐term market volatility. It is also referred to as the ‘investor fear gauge’ because it provides a consistent measure of market turmoil. We examine the VIX as it relates to Presidential popularity as indicated by the Gallup Organization's ongoing poll of US Presidential approval ratings. Our analysis indicates that the expected volatility of the market is highly related to Presidential approval. We then examine the strength and implications of this relationship in order to further establish the link between the economy and Presidential approval.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-Interest,Automaticity, and the Psychology of Conflict of Interest

This paper argues that self-interest and concern for others influence behavior through different cognitive systems. Self-interest is automatic, viscerally compelling, and often unconscious. Understanding one's ethical and professional obligations to others, in contrast, often involves a more thoughtful process. The automatic nature of self-interest gives it a primal power to influence judgment and make it difficult for people to understand its influence on their judgment, let alone eradicate its influence. This dual-process view offers new insights into how conflict of interest operate and it suggests some new avenues for addressing them or limiting some of their greatest dangers.     

The Dynamics of Running Away,Deinstitutionalization Policies and the Police

Abstract Over the last decade, public concern about the risks associated with running away has risen, and conservative policy makers have advocated for a “rethinking” of the juvenile justice system's liberal reforms of the 1970s, especially the deinstitutionalization of status offenders (DSO). Yet questions over the impact of DSO remain unanswered. This study examines the emergence of and debates about DSO to understand the contemporary “status” of runaways. Official reports on runaways and interviews with police and youth workers suggest that most youth return home and that police efforts to locate and assist runaways are constrained by legal and practical forces.     

Determination of race and sex of the human skull by discriminant function analysis of linear and angular dimensions

The race and sex of the human skull can be determined by craniometry. In this paper we suggest that a large number of craniometric measurements does not necessarily give the best possible discrimination for race and test the performance of subsets of variables drawn from various skull regions, or extracted mathematically on the basis of their discriminatory power. We also suggest that the best discriminators for race are not necessarily the best for sex, and that skulls of unknown provenance are best tested first for race and then for sex, using different variables for each purpose.     

东北亚安全合作机制国际研讨会主要观点

“东北亚安全合作机制”国际研讨会于2005年8月3-4日在北京召开。会议由中国现代国际关系研究院与福特基金会共同主办,来自中、美、俄、日、韩、朝六国的20多位专家学者,围绕传统同盟关系、六方会谈、双边关系、非传统安全、经济合作与东北亚安全合作,以及建立东北亚安全合作机制的困难和方案等议题进行了广泛、深入的探讨。现将会议一些主要观点摘要选登如下,以飨读者。     

The Role of Budget and Financial Reform in Making Government Work Better and Cost Less

Budgeting and Financial Management play a crucial role in organizing and disciplining the federal management culture. Consequently, addressing improvements in their practice is essential in the National Performance Review's examination of government-wide management systems. This article briefly describes the recommendations and anticipated implementing actions relating to budgeting and financial management within the context of the National Performance Review's themes of cutting red tape, putting customers first, empowering employees to get results, and cutting back to basics. External factors, such as innovations in private sector management practices, rapid changes in information technology, and statutory reforms such as the Government Performance and Results Act, also influence needed changes in budgetary and financial management practices.