Using the Nondonor Distribution to Improve Communication and Inform Decision Making for Low LRs from Minor Contributors in Mixed DNA Profiles

The reporting of a likelihood ratio (LR) calculated from probabilistic genotyping software has become more popular since 2015 and has allowed for the use of more complex mixtures at court. The meaning of “inconclusive” LRs and how to communicate the significance of low LRs at court is now important. We present a method here using the distribution of LRs obtained from nondonors. The nondonor distribution is useful for examining calibration and discrimination for profiles that have produced LRs less than about 10⁴. In this paper, a range of mixed DNA profiles of varying quantity were constructed and the LR distribution considering the minor contributor for a number of nondonors was compared to the expectation given a calibrated system. It is demonstrated that conditioning genotypes should be used where reasonable given the background information to decrease the rate of nondonor LRs above 1. In all 17 cases examined, the LR for the minor donor was higher than the nondonor LRs, and in 12 of the 17 cases, the 99.9 percentile of the nondonor distribution was lower when appropriate conditioning information was used. The output of the tool is a graph that can show the position of the LR for the person of interest set against the nondonor LR distribution. This may assist communication between scientists and the court.     

From evaluation to auditing and from programs to institutions: Causes and consequences of the decline of the program approach

In the wake of the “audit revolution” during the 1980s and 1990s, administrative systems across the western world have tended to gradually downplay evaluation as a component of the policy process. At the same time, auditing has dramatically increased in scope and depth, and has also, to some extent, come to fill the role in policymaking previously played by evaluation studies. This article reviews this development from the perspective of policymaking and institutional change or “drift.” Specifically, we look at the types of information and knowledge that are lost and gained as a result of these developments. We apply a cross‐national approach, drawing on the examples from the European and North American contexts.     

Voter‐weighted environmental preferences

This article examines the political economy of preferences with respect to the environment using a new stated preference survey that presents the first benefit values for national water quality levels. The mean valuation greatly exceeds the median value, as the distribution of valuations is highly skewed. The study couples the survey valuations with unique and extensive information on respondent voting patterns. Preferences of registered voters are similar to the preferences of the population at large, but median voters value water quality more than nonvoters. The strongest contrast related to voter‐weighted preferences is among voters for different candidates, as those who voted for Gore in the 2000 presidential election have the highest environmental values. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Engaging the reluctant taxpayer

Abstract

A commitment to political neutrality means that citizens have a legitimate complaint when the coercive power of the state is used to advance some particular conception of how it is good to live. In this paper I investigate how to address this complaint in the case of public funding for the arts. There are two promising ways to justify public arts spending. First, as Thomas Nagel argues, the arts are a source of intrinsic values and so command our respect. I reject this argument because intrinsic values are not automatically political values. Second, Ronald Dworkin argues that access to the arts is required to fully participate in social life. This argument draws a connection between the arts and citizenship and so fares better in establishing a political justification for the arts. However, Dworkin relies on the special value of high art relative to popular art, which undermines the neutrality of his argument. I show that a justification can be given that does not depend on the high value of the arts. I develop an account that shows how the arts can support just relations between citizens. This account is in keeping with a liberal commitment to neutrality.     

"The More Things Change…": Business Litigation and Governance in the American Automobile Industry

Business litigation is a relatively neglected area of corporate governance, particularly given its enormous rise in the United States over the past generation. As a preliminary effort to engage this issue, we examine dispute avoidance and resolution in the automotive sector since the early 1970s-focusing on relationships between auto manufacturers and their suppliers and dealers. We generally presume intercorporate litigation to be a "last resort" in business practice, chosen only on the breakdown of less costly means of dispute avoidance or resolution; we take such breakdown typically to be caused by shifts in the terms of competition among firms (e. g., increased competition, instability, uncertainty); and we expect that, over time, the costs of litigation will motivate efforts to construct new structures of nonlitigious dispute resolution. In the case of the U. S. auto industry, we find disruptive shifts in the terms of competition and increased recourse to litigation. Throughout, however, this litigation effect is mitigated by the dominance of major manufacturers over their suppliers and dealers. Over time, it is further dampened by industry development of mechanisms for arbitration or other nonlitigious dispute resolution.     

The Dynamic Interdependence of Developmental Domains Across Emerging Adulthood

Emerging adulthood is a period in which profound role changes take place across a number of life domains including finance, romance, and residence. On the basis of dynamic systems theory, change in one domain should be related to change in another domain, because the concept of development according to this approach is a relational one. To evaluate this hypothesis dynamic systems analysis was applied to data from narrative interviews of 200 respondents covering the years between 17 and 27 to examine how change in one domain affects change in another domain. In each dyad, the fit of the model significantly deteriorated when the coupling between domains was removed providing support for the assumption of interdependency. On average, assuming greater responsibility in one domain was associated with assuming greater responsibility in the other domain. However, imbalances were also observed in which role assumption in one domain far exceeded role assumption in another domain. These imbalances can have detrimental effects and indicate the utility of a balanced approach to development. The findings underscore the importance of studying the relational unit between domains, which is critical to understanding development over time within domains. Post-Doctoral Research fellow in Geriatric Neuro-Psychiatry at Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and the New York State Psychiatric Institute. He received his PhD in Clinical Psychology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and his major research interests include statistical methods for evaluating psychiatric nosology, late-life depression, and the stability and change of personality and personality disorders across the lifespan. Research Scientist at the University of Virginia. He received his PhD in Quantitative Psychology at the University of Virginia. His primary interests are in longitudinal data and applying dynamical concepts to structural equation modeling and multilevel methodology. Professor of Psychology at the University of Southern California. He received his PhD in Psychology at Hofstra University. He is principal investigator of the NIA funded National Growth and Change Study and has primary interests in the dynamics of cognitive ability over life span with special emphasis on longitudinal research designs, methodology, and statistical modeling. Research Scientist at New York State Psychiatric Institute and Professor of Public Health (Epidemiology) in Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons and Columbia University School of Public Health. She received her PhD in social psychology at New York University. Major interests include quantitative methodology and statistics, developmental psychopathology, and lifespan development. Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. He received his M.D. and Ph.D. in Biostatistics in China. His research interests include epidemiological studies, quality of life, and multivariate statistical methods.