A Poisson model of incidents of international terrorism in the United States

Abstract

Various haphazard, and often uncoordinated, efforts have been devoted to discouraging and combatting terrorism. Unfortunately, there has been a noticeable lack of quantitative studies of the problem of terrorism. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the problem of international terrorism will eventually be a focus for operations researchers. A factor fundamental to any OR study is an understanding of the underlying generating process for incidents of terrorism. Based on incidents of terrorism from 1968 to 1974, this paper notes that the Poisson is a good model for the occurrence of incidents of international terrorism in the United States. Results of both chi‐square and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, an unusual result, inconsistent with popular beliefs, is noted.     

Of miracles and models: The rise and decline of the developmental state in South Korea

This article argues that the South Korean economic 'miracle' was based on the ability of the state to implement a strongly developmental policy. The state was able to do so because, for a time, it was highly insulated from demands from social classes which might have diverted it from the objective of industrialisation. This insulation, or 'relative state autonomy', derived from an historical trajectory which left the state in an unusually dominant position in relation to these classes. Domestic dominance was one factor enabling the state to insert the South Korean economy into world markets in a more advantageous position than would otherwise have been possible. However, its very success in industrialising the country strengthened various class forces, whose demands and intrusion into politics undermined the autonomy of the state. With industrialisation, the state's freedom of manoeuvre was lessened. International influence only reinforced those class pressures inside South Korea. The overall effect was to force a retreat of the state and an end to a developmental policy.     

Global games: Culture,political economy and sport in the globalised world of the 21st century

During the past three decades sport has assumed an ever greater role within the globalisation process and in the regeneration of national, regional and local identities in the postcolonial and global age. With much of global culture displayed by the media, events, particularly significant sporting ones such as the Olympic Games or the soccer World Cup, have become highly sought after commodities as developed countries, and increasingly some leading developing countries, move towards event-driven economies. In the process, however, many countries are left behind without the necessary infrastructure or visibility to compete successfully. Furthermore, the process of displaying a culture in the lead-up to an event and during the event itself has had to focus on ready-made markets, thus reinforcing stereotypes about a place and its people. This paper discusses the paradoxes and inequalities brought on by the sport-media-tourism complex that drives the emphasis on global sporting events.