Context and the Economic Vote: A Multilevel Analysis

Randy Stevenson Department of Political Science, Rice University, P.O. Box 1892, Houston, Texas 77251–1892 e-mail: rduch{at}uh.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: stevenso{at}ruf.rice.edu Voters use observed economic performance to infer the competenceof incumbent politicians. These economic perceptions enter thevoter's utility calculations modified by a weight that is minimizedwhen the variance in exogenous shocks to the economy is verylarge relative to the variance in economic outcomes associatedwith the competence of politicians. Cross-national variationsin the political and economic context systematically increaseor undermine the voter's ability to ascertain the competencyof incumbents. We test one hypothesis: As policy-making responsibilityis shared more equally among parties, economic evaluations willbe more important in the vote decision. We employ two multilevelmodeling procedures for estimating the contextual variationsin micro-level economic voting effects: a conventional pooledapproach and a two-stage procedure. We compare the multivariateresults of a pooled method with our two-stage estimation procedureand conclude that they are similar. Our empirical efforts usedata from 163 national surveys from 18 countries over a 22-yearperiod.     

Tocquevilles Plädoyer für eine neue politische Wissenschaft

Zusammenfassung Auch wenn Alexis de Tocqueville einen geringeren Einfluss auf das franz?sische Denken des 19. Jahrhunderts ausgeübt hat als Fran?ois Guizot oder Auguste Comte, so ist er uns dennoch n?her. Sein Werk stellt nicht nur einen Eckpfeiler der Ideengeschichte dar, es erm?glicht uns vielmehr ein besseres Verst?ndnis moderner Gesellschaften — insbesondere der franz?sischen. Seine gro?e Originalit?t, derer er sich vollkommen bewusst war, beruht zu gro?en eilen auf seiner Methodologie. Seine "neue politische Wissenschaft“ ist durch fünf Charakteristika ekennzeichnet: Erstens beruht sie auf dem Prinzip der Wertfreiheit; zweitens ist ihr Ziel die Erkl?rung der sozio-politischen Ph?nomene mit Hilfe einer allgemein-wissenschaftlichen Vorgehensweise; drittens schreibt sie der vergleichenden Vorgehensweise eine strategische Rolle zu; viertens sieht sie ihre Aufgabe in der Suche nach konditionalen Gesetzen, wobei diese als Resultate individueller Verhaltensweisen im Sinne Webers interpretiert werden und charakteristische gesellschaftliche Prozesse aufzeigen sollen; fünftens schlie?lich definiert sie den Begriff der „guten Theorie“ ausgehend von Kriterien, die in der Erkenntnistheorie auch noch heute allgemein anerkannt sind. Die Modernit?t der Tocqueville’schen Methodologie erkl?rt die St?rke seiner Analysen im zweitenBand von über die Demokratie in Amerika sowie in Der alte Staat und die Revolution, den beiden Werken, die hier vor allem Berücksichtigung finden werden. Seine Methodologie erlaubt es Tocqueville, kontinuierlich wirkende, grundlegende Tendenzen der modernen, insbesondere der franz?sischen Gesellschaft zu identifizieren. Daher rührt der Eindruck zeitloser Jugend, den Tocquevilles Werk vermittelt.

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Summary Tocqueville’s influence has been less pronounced than that of several of his contemporaries, e.g. Guizot or Auguste Comte, but he is closer to us: not only is he a great figure in the history of ideas, he provides us with tools and ideas which help us in understanding modern societies. His deep originality, of which he was fully aware, is to a large extent the consequence of his methodology. The “new science of politics” he developed is characterized by five features. 1) It rests upon the principle of value neutrality. It follows the objective of explaining social and political phenomena by procedures used by all sciences. 2) It gives central strategic value to comparative analysis. 3) It pays central attention to the discovery of conditional laws, i.e. “if A, then B”, and interprets these laws as being driven by understandable motivations and reasons on the part of indiindividual social actors. 4) It identifies typical social mechanisms and processes. 5) It defines implicitly the notion of “good theory” by the criteria accepted by modern epistemologists. The accuracy and validity of Tocqueville’s methodology is responsible for the force of his analyses in the second volume of Democracy in America and in The Old Regime and the Revolution, the two works more particularly taken into consideration here. Thanks to his methodology, he was able to identify a number of significant and important trends characterizing modern societies and the French society in particular. Hence the impression of eternal youth the reader easily experiences when reading his more than one and a half century old work.

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Résumé Bien qu’il ait eu moins d’influence sur la pensée fran?aise du 19^ème siècle que Fran?ois Guizot ou Auguste Comte, Tocqueville est aujourd’hui plus proche de nous. Son oeuvre ne constitue pas seulement un monument de l’histoire des idées, elle nous permet également de mieux comprendre les sociétés modernes — en particulier la société fran?aise. Sa grande originalité, dont il était parfaitement conscient, repose en grande partie sur sa méthode. Sa „nouvelle science politique“ présente cinq caractéristiques majeures: Premièrement, elle repose sur le principe de la neutralité axiologique; deuxièmement, elle a pour but d’expliquer les phénomènes socio- politiques par une démarche scientifique; troisièmement, elle accorde un r?le stratégique à la démarche comparative; quatrièmement, elle s’applique à rechercher des lois conditionnelles, qu’elle interprète comme la résultante des comportements individuels au sens de Weber et qui sont censées mettre en évidence des processus sociaux typiques; enfin, cinquièmement, elle définit le concept de la „bonne théorie“ sur la base de critères aujourd’hui encore largement admis en épistémologie. La modernité de la méthode tocquevillienne explique la force des analyses consignées dans le second volume de De la démocratie en Amérique et dans L’Ancien Régime et la Révolution, les deux oeuvres qui retiendront ici plus particulièrement l’attention. Grace à sa méthode, Tocqueville est en mesure d’identifier des tendances durables et profondes de la société moderne, et notamment de la société fran?aise. C’est de là que provient l’impression d’éternelle jeunesse qui émane de son œuvre.

     

Analysis of non-suspect samples lacking visually identifiable sperm using a Y-STR 10-plex

Y-STRs are valuable in the investigation of sexual assaults in which autosomal STR genotype interpretation is challenging. To detect male DNA from compromised sexual assault evidence, 45 non-suspect samples were differentially extracted and analyzed with 10 Y-STRs. These samples were positive for the presence of human seminal fluid, but were negative for spermatozoa by microscopic examination. Y-STR data were obtained in approximately 86.2% of the epithelial or sperm fractions. On samples yielding incomplete profiles, results were obtained on an average of 5 loci per sample. The inability to obtain results may be due to insufficient amplifiable male DNA, PCR inhibition, or unfounded accusations of sexual assault. This study indicates that it is possible to obtain a male STR profile even in the absence of visually identifiable spermatozoa. Furthermore, Y-STR loci should become components of CODIS if they are to be used in solving non-suspect sexual assaults.     

A: Reviews: general

REVEALING THE HOLY LAND: THE PHOTOGRAPHIC EXPLORATION OF PALESTINE. By Kathleen Stewart Howe. Museum of Art, Santa Barbara, 1997. 144pp. $US 60 (hb), $US 29.95 (pb).

THE EMERGENCE OF THE ‘ABBASID AUTOCRACY: THE ‘ABBASID ARMY, KHURASAN AND ADHARBAYJAN. By Fukuzo Amabe, Kyoto University Press, 1995 xi + 322pp.

THE BUKHARANS: A DYNASTIC, DIPLOMATIC AND COMMERCIAL HISTORY, 1550–1702. By Audrey Burton. Richmond, Surrey, UK; Curzon Press, 1997; xxxvii + 664pp. ISBN 0 7007 0417 5. £65.00 (hb).

THE REVOLUTION OF 1908 IN TURKEY. By Aykut Kansu (No. 58 in Social, Economic and Political Studies of the Middle East and Asia). Leiden, E.J. Brill, 1997. 341 pp.

THE MIDDLE EAST IN GLOBAL CHANGE: THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS OF INTERDEPENDENCE VERSUS FRAGMENTATION. Edited by Laura Guazzone. Basingstoke and London, Macmillan Press Ltd and Instituto Affari Inter‐nazionali, 1997, xiv + 285 pp., 8 maps, £45 (hb).

THE QUEST FOR HEGEMONY IN THE ARAB WORLD. THE STRUGGLE OVER THE BAGHDAD PACT. By Elie Podeh. Leiden, E. J. Brill, 1995

ISTITUZIONI DEL MONDO MUSULMANO. Giorgio Vercellin. (Biblioteca Studio, n. 27). Torino, Einaudi, 1996. 419 pp.+ vxx. 36,000 It lire.

THE FORBIDDEN MODERN: CIVILIZATION AND VEILING. By N?lüfer göle. (Critical Perspectives on Women and Gender). Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 1996. 173 pp. $15.95.

WITHIN THE CIRCLE: PARENTS AND CHILDREN IN AN ARAB VILLAGE. By Andrea B. Rough. The History and Society of the Modern Middle East Series. New York, Columbia University Press, 1997. 263pp.

OVERCOMING TRADITION AND MODERNITY: THE SEARCH FOR ISLAMIC AUTHENTICITY. By Robert D. Lee. Oxford, Westview Press, 1997. 216pp.

ARABIC TODAY: A STUDENT, BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL COURSE IN SPOKEN AND WRITTEN ARABIC. By John Mace. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1996. 287 pp. £19.95. 1‐hour audio cassette to accompany the book £5.99.

THE SOCIOLINGUISTIC MARKET OF CAIRO: GENDER, CLASS AND EDUCATION. By Niloofar Haeri. London, Kegan Paul International, 1996, xviii + 272pp.

THE EGYPTIAN THEATRE IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY (1799–1882). By P. C. Sadgrove. Reading, Ithaca Press, 1996. ix + 214pp.

PALESTINIAN IDENTITY, THE CONSTRUCTION OF MODERN NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS. By Rashid Khalidi, New York, Columbia University Press, 1997. 304 pp. $34.00/£22.95.

RELIGION, DEMOCRACY AND ISRAELI SOCIETY. By Charles Liebman. Reading, Harwood Academic Publishers, 1997. 115 pp. £13.00.

TO RULE JERUSALEM. By R. Friedland and R. Hecht. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996. 554pp.

IRANIAN INTELLECTUALS AND THE WEST: THE TORMENTED TRIUMPH OF NATIVISM. By Mehrzad Boroujerdi. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press, 1996. 256 pp., incl appendix, glossary, bibliography and index.

DISCOVERING THE QUR'AN: A CONTEMPORARY APPROACH TO A VEILED TEXT. By Neal Robinson. London: SCM Press, 1996. 332pp., £16.95 (pb).

THE BOOK IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD: THE WRITTEN WORD AND COMMUNICATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Edited by George N. Atiyeh. Albany State University of New York Press, 1995. xviii 305pp.

RIVERS OF DISCORD: INTERNATIONAL WATER DISPUTES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By Greg Shapland. London, Hurst & Company, 1997. 183 pp. 6 maps 5 tables, (hb) £37.50.

MOSHE SHARETT: BIOGRAPHY OF A POLITICAL MODERATE. By Gabriel Sheffer. New York, Oxford University Press, 1996. 1065 pp. £65.

CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE MIDDLE EAST (Volumes 1 and 2). Edited by Augustus Richard Norton. Leiden: E.J. Brill 1995–1996 Vol lx + 328pp, Vol 2 xvi + 353pp     

Testing for the Equality of Maximum-Likelihood Regression Coefficients Between Two Independent Equations

Consider the case where one obtains maximum-likelihood estimates of regression coefficients for the respective populations from which each of two large independent samples is drawn. A question sometimes asked about the results of such an analysis is whether there is a difference between a coefficient in one population, _a, and the same coefficient in another population, _b. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two test statistics that have been used to address this problem. Our results suggest that one statistic produces valid conclusions, while the other fails.     

Multiculturalism

In rejecting the liberal claim to the universality of morals, some contemporary philosophers insist on the danger of reducing the human being to an abstraction. This paper goes beyond this debate. The theoretical core of multiculturalism is the recognition that these universalistic claims can be realised in different ways in different cultures, so as to require a re-conception of the liberal thesis of the well-being and dignity of people. This interpretation of morality cannot be understood within the ideology of nationalism. Replacing nationalism as the common bond of society is thus one of the main political challenges facing multiculturalism. However, any specific policy must presuppose a new social sensitivity: Societies are not made up of majorities and minorities, but of a plurality of cultural groups. This is why the notion of toleration is not enough. 1 Abstract by Antonio Rotolo.
     

A: Reviews: general

PALESTINIAN PEASANTS AND OTTOMAN OFFICIALS: RURAL ADMINISTRATION AROUND SIXTEENTH‐CENTURY JERUSALEM. By Amy Singer. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1995.

THE PASHA'S PEASANTS: LAND, SOCIETY, AND ECONOMY IN LOWER EGYPT, 1740–1858. By Kenneth M. Cuno. (Cambridge Middle East Library, 27.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 295 pp., tables, appendices, index. £35.00 (hb).

SOCIALISM AND NATIONALISM IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE. Edited by Mete Tunçay and Erik Jan Zürcher. London & New York, British Academic Press, in association with the International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam. 222 pp. £39.50.

INSIDE THE ARAB WORLD. By Michael Field. London, John Murray, 1994. 439 pp., maps. £25.

STRUGGLE AND SURVIVAL IN THE MODERN MIDDLE EAST. Edited by Edmund Burke III. London & New York, I. B. Taurís, 1993. xi, 393 pp. £14.95 (pb).

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SYRIA UNDER ASAD. By Volker Perthes. London & New York, I. B. Tauris, 1995. 298 pp. £39.50.

THE ARAB MINORITY IN ISRAEL 1967–1991: POLITICAL ASPECTS. By Jacob M. Landau. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1993.

THE ARAB MINORITY IN ISRAEL'S ECONOMY: PATTERNS OF ETHNIC INEQUALITY. By Noah Lewin‐Epstein and Moshe Semyonov. (Social Inequality Series.) Oxford, Westview Press, 1993.

THE HEALTH CARE OF THE ARABS IN ISRAEL. By Nira Reiss. (Westview Special Studies on the Middle East.) Oxford, Westview Press, 1991.

THE GULF: ENERGY AND GLOBAL SECURITY. By Charles F. Doran and Stephen W. Buck. London, Lynne Rienner, 1991. 228 pp. £27.50.

IRAN AND THE COLD WAR: THE AZERBAIJAN CRISIS OF 1946. By Louise Fawcett. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 181 pp. £32.50.

THE GULF CONFLICT, 1990–1991: DIPLOMACY AND WAR IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER. By Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh. London, Faber & Faber, 1994. xlv, 504 pp.

IRAN AND IRAQ: THE THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. By Anthony H. Cordesman. Oxford, Westview Press, 1994. x, 378 pp. £45.50 (hb), £16.95 (pb).

THE UNITED NATIONS, IRAN, AND IRAQ: HOW PEACEMAKING CHANGED. By Cameron R. Hume. Buckingham, Open University Press, 1994. xi, 269 pp. £27.50.

THE HISTORY OF THE BRITISH PETROLEUM COMPANY. Volume 2: THE ANGLO‐IRANIAN YEARS 1928–1954. By J. H. Bamberg. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994. 639 pp. 55 tables, 5 maps, 20 graphs and diagrams, 88 illustrations, 3 appendices, index. £55.00 (hb).

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS IN CENTRAL ASIA. Edited by Shirin Akiner. London, British Academic Press, 1994. ix, 205 pp.

FAITH AND FREEDOM: WOMEN'S HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD. Edited by Mahnaz Afkhami. London, I. B. Tauris, 1995. xi, 244 pp: £12.95 (pb).

DECIPHERING THE SIGNS OF GOD: A PHENOMENOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ISLAM. By Annemarie Schimmel. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1994. 317 pp. £39.50.

BEYOND FAITH AND INFIDELITY: THE SUFI POETRY AND TEACHINGS OF MAHMUD SHABISTARI. By Leonard Lewisohn. (Curzon Sufi Series.) Richmond, Curzon Press, 1995. 344 pp. £14.99.

GIVING VOICE TO STONES: PLACE AND IDENTITY IN PALESTINIAN LITERATURE. By Barbara McKean Parmenter. Austin, University of Texas Press, 1994. ix, 117 pp. One map.

GENIZAH RESEARCH AFTER 90 YEARS: THE CASE OF JUDAEO‐ARABIC: PAPERS READ AT THE THIRD CONGRESS OF THE SOCIETY FOR JUDAEO‐ARABIC STUDIES. Edited by Joshua Blau and Stefan C. Reif. (University of Cambridge Oriental Publications, 47.) Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 1992. 1 illustration, 3 indexes, xiv, 176 pp. $54.95.

ARABIC SOCIOLINGUISTICS: ISSUES AND PERSPECTIVES. Edited by Yasir Suleiman. Richmond, Curzon Press, 1994. xv, 273 pp.

DIE MAMLUKISCHE ARCHITEKTUR IN ÄGYPTEN UND SYRIEN. By Michael Meinecke. (Abhandlung des Deutschen Archäologischen Instituts Kairos, Islamische Reihe, Band 5.) Gluckstadt, Verlag J. J. Augustin GmbH, 1994. 2 vols., 819 pp. 142 pis., 153 plans.     

Book reviews

Tsou Tang, Ershi shiji Zhongguo Zhengzhi: Cong hongguan lishi yu weiguan xingdong jiaodu kan [Twentieth Century Chinese Politics: Viewed from the Perspective of Macro History and Micro Actions] (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1994).

Eric Harwit, China's Automobile Industry: Policies, Problems, and Prospects (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1995).